Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Kimani Vidal truthers UNITE! Vindication is ours. Since Week 6, Kimani Vidal has been the RB10 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19.4 touches and 100 total yards. Among 60 qualifying backs, he ranks third in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. He shouldn’t have much issue with ripping apart the Titans’ run defense this week. Since Week 4, Tennessee has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt.
David Montgomery is the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 12.7 touches and 64.4 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 20th in explosive run rate and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery should have a successful day against a Minnesota run defense that, since Week 4, has allowed the 12th-highest rushing yards per game and explosive run rate and the third-highest success rate to zone runs (Montgomery 66.7% zone).
Kareen Hunt will lead the backfield this week with Isiah Pacheco sidelined. He has averaged 8.8 touches and 37.7 total yards this season as the RB40 in fantasy points per game. Hunt has three top-24 weekly finishes this season already (RB22, RB8, RB12). Hunt hasn’t been impressive on a per-touch basis, with only a 10% missed tackle rate and 2.16 yards after contact per attempt. He could still have a strong fantasy day in Week 9 just based on volume and touchdown equity that he has in the offense. Hunt is tied for 15th in the NFL in rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. Since Week 4, Buffalo has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest explosive run rate, and the second-highest missed tackle rate.
Zonovan Knight should lead the backfield this week, especially on early downs. In his last two games, he has averaged 47.7% of the snaps with 14.5 touches and 59 total yards. Knight has not been efficient with his work, with zero explosive runs, a 7% missed tackle rate, and only 1.31 yards after contact per attempt. That might not matter in Week 9. That’s how bad the Dallas run defense has been. The best trick the Green Bay Packers ever pulled was convincing Jerry Jones that Kenny Clark would solve their run defense problems. Dallas has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and they have the lowest stuff rate. Knight should flirt with low-end RB2 production this week with a strong flex floor.
Tony Pollard is the RB31 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, he has averaged 12 touches and 53.7 total yards with a 49.2% snapshare, a 32.5% route share, and a 9.1% target share. During this stretch, he’s had two of the five red zone running back carries. Garbage time has muddied the snap and usage waters weekly, but Tyjae Spears is getting more work than Pollard over the last three games. Among 60 qualifying backs, Pollard ranks 30th in missed tackle rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he gets a bit of a bump with the Chargers’ run defense struggling. Since Week 4, the Bolts have allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt.
Since Week 6, Tyjae Spears has been the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 9.6 touches and 57.3 total yards. During this stretch, he has had a 50.8% snap share, a 42.1% route share, and a 10% target share. Across the last three games, he has three of the five running back red zone rushing attempts. Spears has had a decent 4.3% explosive run rate and 2.30 yards after contact per attempt. He’s a decent flex play with a good matchup this week. Since Week 4, the Bolts have allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt.
With Cam Skattebo‘s unfortunate injury last week, Tyrone Tracy Jr. will be the team’s workhorse moving forward. Last week, in the second half, he played 74% of the snaps with five of seven running back carries and a 61.1% route share. Tracy Jr. hasn’t been nearly as impressive this season on a per-touch basis as last year, with an 11% missed tackle rate and only 2.09 yards after contact per attempt. Tracy Jr. should produce solid RB2 numbers this week. Since Week 4, San Francisco’s run defense has been quite average, allowing the ninth-highest yards before contact per attempt, the 13th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Tracy 62.2% zone), logging the second-lowest stuff rate, and sitting at 16th in success rate.
Since Week 6, Samaje Perine has been the 1B in the Cincy backfield as the RB29 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged 8.3 touches and 54.3 touches with three of 11 red zone rushing attempts. During that stretch, he has had a 42.2% snap rate, a 32.1% route share, and a 3.2% target share. Perine has been insanely efficient with his rushing work ranking ninth in missed tackle rate and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. He should have another strong game this week against a Bears’ run defense that, since Week 4, has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-most yards before contact per attempt, and the 14th-highest success rate. Perine is a strong flex play this week.
Since Week 7, Kyle Monangai has averaged 45.5% of the snaps played with 11 touches and 59 total yards. Among 60 qualifying backs, he ranks 23rd in explosive run rate and 20th in missed tackle rate. Across the last two games, he has four of the 16 red zone rushing attempts for the backfield. Monangai is a strong flex this week. Since Week 4, Cincy has allowed the most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-highest missed tackle rate.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Since Week 4, Kenneth Walker has been the RB42 in fantasy points per game. The lack of a red zone role and touchdowns is crushing him. Since Week 4, he has averaged 14.8 touches and 74.8 total yards with a 43.1% snap rate, a 28.1% route share, and a 3.4% target share. He has only eight of 23 red zone running back rushing attempts in that span and zero touchdowns. Walker is fourth in explosive run rate and seventh in missed tackle rate, and it hasn’t mattered because Seattle has utilized him as the back in between the 20s. Walker will have to rip a long run to get in the end zone, but that could happen this week. Since Week 4, Washington has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-highest success rate, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Since Week 4, Zach Charbonnet has been the RB25 in fantasy points per game, which has been driven by four touchdowns in that span. During that stretch, he has averaged 12.8 touches and 46 total yards with 15 of 23 red zone running back rushing attempts. Since Week 4, he has had a 53.1% snap rate, a 43% route share, and a 5.9% target share. Charbonnet has a 14% missed tackle rate and 2.15 yards after contact per attempt. He is a borderline RB2 and, at the very least, a strong flex play with his red zone role. Since Week 4, Washington has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-highest success rate, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Houston can’t decide who they want to be their lead back. Over the last three games, Woody Marks has played anywhere from 38.6-63.2% of the snaps while averaging 11.6 touches and 60.7 total yards. Marks hasn’t been anything special as a rusher with a 5% missed tackle rate and 2.18 yards after contact per attempt. He’s likely getting stonewalled this week. Since Week 4, Denver has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, and the third-lowest yards before contact per attempt. He could save his fantasy day through the air this week, though. Denver has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the highest yards per reception to running backs. Since Week 4, Marks has had a 35% route share, a 10.2% target share, 29.8 receiving yards per game, and 2.09 yards per route run. He’s a stronger flex play in PPR formats.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Over the last two games, Rico Dowdle has worked as the 1B in the Carolina backfield with two red zone rushing attempts (Hubbard, four), a 40.3% snap rate, and a 25% route share (1.8% target share). He has averaged 13 touches and 75 total yards over the last two games. He’s still crushing it on a per-touch basis. Among 60 qualifying rushers, Dowdle ranks 16th in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackle rate, and third in yards after contact per attempt. Dowdle will have to overcome a tough matchup, but he could get a boost of volume with the coaching staff insinuating that workload could shift back to him more this week. Plugging him in as a flex play this week is a bet on talent and the hope that his volume and backfield share increase this week. It’s a risky play no matter how ya slice it. Since Week 4, Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the second-lowest missed tackle rate, and the third-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Since his return in Week 7, Chuba Hubbard has averaged 14 touches and 44.5 total yards. He has had a 56.6% snap rate with a 42.6% route share (Dowdle 25%) and a 5.4% target share. He has also led the backfield with four red zone rushing attempts (Dowdle two). Hubbard was the lead back role for Carolina, but this could be the week that Dowdle takes over. Hubbard still doesn’t have an explosive run, has a 5% missed tackle rate, and only 1.82 yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard is a low-end touchdown-dependent flex this week. Since Week 4, Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the second-lowest missed tackle rate, and the third-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Ashton Jeanty is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18 touches and 75.9 total yards. He ranks 12th in snap share, fourth in opportunity share, and tenth in red zone touches. Among 60 qualifying backs, Jeanty ranks tenth in missed tackle rate and 21st in yards after contact per attempt. Jeanty has a tough matchup this week that he’ll need all the volume he can muster to overcome, as his offensive line won’t be helping him much. Since Week 4, the Raiders have the eighth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Since Week 4, Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, and the eighth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Travis Etienne is the RB20 in fantasy points per game, averaging 15.9 touches and 84.8 total yards. He is tenth in snap share, 19th in weighted opportunities, and 17th in red zone touches among running backs. Among 60 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks 19th in explosive run rate and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. The Raiders have toughened up as a run defense and present a sizable obstacle for Etienne this week. Since Week 4, the Raiders have allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the fourth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Etienne is a volume play that you hope gets into the end zone this week.
Sit’em
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Jordan Mason
Aaron Jones
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