Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start ‘Em
Last week, Woody Marks took over the Houston backfield as the RB6 for the week. He played 58.5% of the snaps with 21 touches and 119 total yards (two scores). Marks had 17 of 30 running back carries with a 43.8% route share (17.9% target share). Marks had the team’s only red zone carry last week. Among 43 qualifying backs, Marks ranks tenth in explosive run rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Marks should crush again this week. Baltimore hasn’t been able to stop opposing rushers. They have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the second-highest yards per carry and success rate to gap runs (Marks 58.6% gap).
Kendre Miller is a viable flex this week. Last week, he saw a season-high 31.3% snap rate with 11 carries and 65 total yards. In limited action, he has looked good with a 36% missed tackle rate. He has been involved in the Saints’ red zone rushing offense with five carries inside the red zone (Kamara has seven). Miller could flirt with double-digit touches this week, and with a nice matchup on the ground, if he gets in the endzone, he could be a top 24 back this week. New York has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest explosive run rate, and the highest yards after contact per attempt.
Last week, with Zach Charbonnet back in the lineup, Kenneth Walker led the way with a 51.6% snap rate and 19 of 31 running back rushing attempts, but he ran 11 routes (Charbonnet had 12) and only had two red zone carries (Charbonnet had four). Walker finished with 20 touches and 110 total yards. Since Week 2, he has averaged 17 touches and 92.7 total yards as the RB12 in fantasy points per game. Among 43 qualifying backs, Walker ranks fourth in explosive run rate and tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt. Walker’s big play potential allows him to overcome tough matchups, which he’ll have to do this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest missed tackle rate, and the fewest yards after contact per attempt.
The RJ Harvey breakout game happened, and we were all witnesses to it. Last week, he played 41.3% of the snaps with a 25% route share (11.9% target share) and had 14 of the 31 carries. Harvey had 18 touches and 98 total yards with a score as the RB12 for the week. Harvey led the team in routes and was only two carries and two snaps behind J.K. Dobbins. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Denver should feed both backs this week, as the pressure point of the Eagles’ defense is their run defense. Philly has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the lowest stuff rate, the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt. Philly has also surrendered the 11th-highest yards per carry and the third-highest success rate to gap runs (Harvey 51.9% gap). Harvey can also get it down through the air against a defense that has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards and the fourth-highest yards per reception to running backs.
I’m approaching this week like Bucky Iriving will be out. At the time of writing this, he is in a boot and on crutches, dealing with a foot sprain. I don’t see him healing enough from this injury to suit up this week. When White has been called upon, he has been efficient on a per-touch basis with a 26% missed tackle rate and 2.43 yards after contact per attempt. White should handle the bulk of the work this week while having bellcow upside. Sean Tucker could steal a few touches, but I don’t think his workload is projectable enough to warrant him being a flex play this week. White has a horrible matchup incoming. Seattle has been quite good this season at stopping the run, giving up the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest explosive run rate, and allowing the third-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
With Trey Benson headed to the IR, Michael Carter looks to take over the early down portion of a committee approach in Arizona. Last week, Carter played only four snaps, had one rushing attempt, and ran two routes. Last year, to close the season (Weeks 17-18), he drew two starts, averaging 18 touches and 70 total yards with a 13% missed tackle rate and 1.67 yards after contact per attempt. In those two games, he finished as the RB20 and RB11 in weekly scoring. Emari Demercado will factor into this backfield equation, but if Carter is the early down hammer, he should have a strong day against a porous Titans’ run defense. Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Over the last two games, Bill has had a 37.1% snap rate (second on the team) with 15 of the 39 running back carries (second on the team) and a 20.8% route share (6.3% target share), which has also been second on the team. Bill has averaged nine touches and 44 total yards. Since Week 3, he has had only two red zone carries (Chris Rodriguez has had four). Bill has been explosive when the ball has been in his hands with a 6.9% explosive run rate, a 17% missed tackle rate, and 3.07 yards after contact per attempt. With the work in the Washington backfield getting split into three different directions, Croskey-Merritt is only a run-of-the-mill flex despite a nice matchup on the ground. The Chargers have the 13th-lowest stuff rate and have allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate and the second-highest missed tackle rate.
The big debate this week is “which Cardinals’ running back will take the lion’s share of the work this week?” The way I’m approaching this is that Michael Carter will be the early down option, and Demercado will handle the two-minute offense and most of the passing downs. Last week, he was second to Trey Benson in route share with 29.4%. He played 39.1% of the snaps but only had two carries. Last year, while he had a 20.4% route share, he had only 6.8% of the rushing volume. He could easily break a big run this week and pay off with the early down volume he is given. Last year, in limited action (24 carries), he looked very good with a 12.5% explosive run rate, a 21% missed tackle rate, and 3.58 yards after contact per attempt. Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt. The Titans are also 17th in receiving yards and 18th in yards per reception allowed to running backs. Demercado and Carter are strong flexes this week, with the situation murky and the matchup juicy.
Last week, Nick Chubb saw his playing time decrease with a 40% snap rate, 13 of the 30 running back carries, and a 21.9% route share (7.1% target share). He finished with 15 touches and 62 total yards. He has looked like a shell of his former self with a 13% missed tackle rate and 1.68 yards after contact per attempt this season. He’s a touchdown-dependent flex this week with a good matchup. Baltimore has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the second-highest yards per carry and success rate to gap runs (Chubb 53.2% gap).
Brashard Smith is coming off a game in which he saw a season-high 26% snap rate with seven touches and 36 total yards. Smith had a 17.5% route share and 10.8% target share. He was targeted on four of his seven routes. The team has talked about getting him more involved moving forward. If you’re DESPERATE for a flex play this week, he’s in play. Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards, the eighth-highest yards per reception, and two scores (third-most, tied) to running backs.
Sit ‘Em
Isaiah Pacheco has had such a sad season to date. Last week, it got worse as his snap share dipped to 37%. Yes, he scored a touchdown, and that saved his fantasy day, but his candle is dimming. He’s been barely flex-worthy this season, averaging 9.5 touches and 36.1 total yards. I don’t see his volume outlook improving in Week 5 in a bad matchup. Pacheco is droppable at this point. Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, and the second-lowest missed tackle rate.
Bhayshul Tuten is a high-end handcuff only. He has played 17.1-25.4% of the snaps over the last three games, averaging only seven touches and 39 total yards. This isn’t enough volume to consider plugging him into a lineup. Even if you wanted to go out on a limb this week with Tuten, the matchup is rough. Kansas City has allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate and the sixth-lowest missed tackles rate, so expecting efficiency with limited volume is too tall an order.
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