Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’Em
Over the last two weeks, with Dillon Gabriel under center, Fannin Jr. has had a 16.5% target share, 47 receiving yards (1.57 yards per route run), and a 17.5% first-read share. Last week, with David Njoku leaving the game with a knee injury, Fannin Jr. had a 19.2% target share, 81 receiving yards (1.88 yards per route run), and a 19.4% first-read share. Fannin Jr. could compete with Jeudy for the team lead in targets this week. He has had two red zone targets over the last two games. Miami has bled out production to tight ends, giving up the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game and yards per reception to the position.
Zach Ertz is the TE16 in fantasy points per game, with two TE1 finishes this season (TE2, TE5). He has zero deep targets and four red zone targets this season. This week’s matchup against Dallas is a great schematic matchup for him. Dallas has the sixth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (58.5%). Against two high, Ertz has a 23.1% target share, 2.30 yards per route run, and a 35.1% first-read share (WOW!). Dallas isn’t a wonderful matchup for Ertz on paper, but Daniels should look to him often this week. Dallas has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends while ranking 16th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed.
After last week’s disappointing near goose egg for Taylor, since Week 4, he has been the TE16 in fantasy points per game with TE11 and TE8 weekly finishes in Weeks 4-5. Since Week 4, Taylor has a 22.2% target share, 44.7 receiving yards per game (1.41 yards per route run), and a 22.4% first-read share. Taylor has two red zone targets in his last three games. Taylor is back in the TE1 discussion this week against a defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends. Taylor could operate as the clear top receiving option for the Jets this week.
Last week, Oronde Gadsden became the Bolts full-time tight end with a 69.2% route share, a 21.1% target share, 68 receiving yards (2.52 yards per route run), and a 31.6% first-read share. He even saw an end zone target. He was the TE12 for the week. Indy has utilized single-high with 51.2-62.5% of their defensive snaps in four of their six games. Against single high, Gadsden has a 26% target per route run rate and 1.72 yards per route run. Among 52 qualifying tight ends, against single high, those marks rank fifth-best and 13th. Gadsden Jr. could easily post another TE1 stat line this week against an Indy defense that has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards and the 13th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Cade Otton has been a ghost for much of this year as the TE33 in fantasy points per game. He has reemerged in the passing offense over the last two weeks with 12.1 and 10.1 PPR points as the TE13 and TE17 in weekly scoring. He has only one red zone target this season, though. Over the last two games, Otton has had a 19.6% target share, 66 receiving yards per game (3.07 yards per route run), and an 11.1% first-read share. Otton is a strong streaming option at tight end this week against a Lions’ defense that has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game, the seventh-highest yards per reception, and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Hunter Henry is the TE11 in fantasy points per game, leading tight ends in deep targets and running second in red zone looks. Henry has a 16.7% target share, 1.81 yards per route run (46.2 receiving yards per game), and a 20% first-read share. Since Week 3, Tennessee has had the second-highest two-high rate in the NFL (66.9%). Against two high, his target share has nudged up to 17.1% with 1.54 yards per route run and a 17.6% first-read share. This isn’t a great matchup for Henry. Tennessee has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-fewest yards per reception and fantasy points per game to tight ends. He could post TE2 production in Week 7.
Sit’Em
Darren Waller‘s route share has grown weekly. In his first game, he had only a 37% route share, but last week he was up to a 75% clip. Salutations! Waller is a full-time player in the Miami offense. Waller has a 12.8% target share, 1.86 yards per route run (39 receiving yards per game), and a 15.4% first-read share. Waller has four red zone targets in his three games played and has scored a touchdown in each game. He has two TE1 weekly finishes (TE4, TE6). He faces a Browns’ secondary that has the third-highest rate of single high (61.3%). Against single high, he has drawn only two targets (5.1% target share) and had a 3.6% first-read share. This isn’t a great schematic matchup for him. He could save his day with another touchdown again this week, but I don’t project that he’ll roll up receiving yards in this game. Cleveland ranks 16th in receiving yards and 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
Kyle Pitts is the TE14 in fantasy points per game with three red zone and zero deep targets. He has a 17.1% target share with 44.6 receiving yards per game (1.43 yards per route run) and a 14.8% first-read share. Pitts is a sit this week. The 49ers have held tight ends to the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game, the tenth-lowest yards per reception, and the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game.
With Carson Wentz under center, Hockenson has had a 16.2% target share with 42 receiving yards per game (1.38 yards per route run) and a 16.7% first-read share. In those three games, he has finished as the TE5, TE22, and TE18 in weekly fantasy scoring, seeing four red zone targets (one score). This is a horrible matchup for Hockenson. You might want to consider streaming a tight end this week if you have Hockenson. Philly has allowed the third-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Last week, as the Raiders’ starting tight end, Michael Mayer had an 80% route share, a 30.4% target share, 50 receiving yards (2.50 yards per route run), and a 23.1% first-read share. He had one red zone target (one score) and was the TE6 in fantasy. Mayer is a low-end streaming option only this week. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Over the last three games, Juwan Johnson has seen his role in the offense shrink. While his route share has stayed steady with an 80-85.7% route share, his target and first-read shares have fallen weekly from 10.7% and 16.7% to 7.7% and 6.7%. That’s a highly concerning trend, and I have a hard time trusting Johnson in any lineups this week, especially against a defense that has allowed the fewest yards per reception and ranks 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Sit Johnson and hope this trend reverses itself this week, and he’s a viable fantasy tight end moving forward.
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