Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
After the entire fantasy community finally gave up on Kyle Pitts, he is producing at a nice rate this season. He’s the TE12 in fantasy points per game, drawing an 18.8% target share with 47.5 receiving yards per game (1.49 yards per route run), and a 17.1% target share. He has three red zone targets and a deep target. Miami has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game, the tenth-highest yards per reception, and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Pitts should return TE1 value this week.
Since Week 4, Mason Taylor has stacked two strong games and two duds. Yes, quarterback play has played a large role in it and will be moving forward. Since Week 4, Taylor has had a 19.4% target share with 41.3 receiving yards per game (1.27 yards per route run), and a 20.6% first-read share. Taylor has two red zone targets in those four games. Taylor should have a nice bounce-back game in Week 8 if his quarterback play complies against a defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
It’s another nice coverage matchup for Ertz against his week. Ertz is the TE14 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 performances this season (TE2, TE5). Ertz has five red zone targets and zero deep targets this season. This week, he faces a Kansas City defense that has the fourth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (58.5%). Against two high, Ertz has a 22.9% target share, 2.15 yards per route run, and a 34.24% first-read share. He’ll get plenty of volume this week, but the matchup is rough as Kansas City has allowed the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Cole Kmet sustained a back injury last week and opened this week with a DNP. Colston Loveland could be the Bears’ full-time tight end this week. In the second half of last week’s game, Loveland had a 70% route share, a 22.2% target share, and a 33.3% first-read share. Overall, this season, he has an 18% target per route run rate, 1.07 yards per route run, two red zone targets, and a 12.2% first-read share. Baltimore has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends. Loveland could be a wonderful streaming option this week at tight end if Kmet is out.
With Dillon Gabriel under center, Fannin Jr. has had a 67.5% route share, an 18.4% target share, 43.3 receiving yards per game (1.65 yards per route run), and a 20% first-read share. In those three games, he has two red zone targets and weekly scoring finishes as the TE15, TE7, and TE23. Fannin Jr. is on the streaming radar this week. The Patriots have allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Hunter Henry is the TE13 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weeks (TE1, TE10) in weekly scoring. Henry has a 16.7% target share, 44.3 receiving yards per game (1.73 yards per route run), and an 18.9% first-read share. Henry leads the team with seven red zone targets and is second with four deep targets. This week, he faces a Cleveland pass defense that has the third-highest rate of single high (61.2%). Against single high, Henry has had a 17.3% target share, 1.99 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. Henry is a fringe TE1 this week with a bad matchup. Cleveland has allowed the ninth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Juwan Johnson had seen his usage in decline over the previous few weeks until Week 7. Last week, he had a 21.9% target share and 25% first-read share. His usage hadn’t been that good since Week 3. Overall, Johnson has an 18% target share with 45 receiving yards per game (1.48 yards per route run) and a 22% first-read share. Johnson has four red zone targets and one deep target this season. Johnson is a low-end streaming tight end option this week against a pass defense that ranks 16th in fantasy points per game and has given up the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Since Week 5, Cade Otton has had weekly scoring finishes of TE13, TE17, and TE11 with at least 10.1 PPR points in each game. In those three games, he has had an 18.9% target share, 65.7 receiving yards per game (2.14 yards per route run), and a 12.7% first-read share. This week, he’ll face a Saints’ pass defense that has utilized single high at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (59.7%). Over the last three weeks, against single high, Otton has had a 20.4% target share with 2.74 yards per route run and a 16.2% first-read share. Otton is a viable streaming option this week against a defense that ranks 18th in receiving yards per game and has given up the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Sit’em
Mark Andrews is the TE22 in fantasy points per game. Outside of his monster game in Week 3, he hasn’t cleared 30 receiving yards in any other game and has only two red zone targets. He has finished as the TE27 or lower in four games this season. Since Isaiah Likely‘s return, Andrews has had a 61.4% route share, a 19.5% target share, 25.3 receiving yards per game (1.23 yards per route run), and a 27.1% first-read share. This could be the bounce-back spot for Andrews, but there’s definite risk here. Chicago has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards and the ninth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Since Week 4, Theo Johnson has been the TE7 in fantasy points per game. He’s had a 73.3% route share, a 19.2% target share with 35.8 receiving yards per game (1.34 yards per route run) and a 22.5% first-read share. Johnson has five red zone targets and four touchdowns across his last four games. Johnson is a low-end tight end streaming option this week against a defense that has allowed the third-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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