Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Keenan Allen is the WR10 in fantasy points per game. Yep, you read that correctly. Allen is having a renaissance season back with the Bolts. He has a 22.9% target share with 62.1 receiving yards per game (1.92 yards per route run), and a 25.1% first-read share. He ranks fourth in the NFL in red zone targets. This week, he faces a Minnesota pass defense that has the highest two-high rate in the NFL (70.3%). Against two high, his target share has remained stable at 22.3% (tied for the team lead) with 1.94 yards per route run and a 24.3% first-read share. Minnesota is a wonderful matchup for Allen, as they have allowed the highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Jordan Addison has been on a heater since his return to the field in Week 4, with at least 15.1 fantasy points in each game as the WR7 in fantasy points per game. He is tied for second on the team in red zone targets with Justin Jefferson (six each). Addison has a 20.3% target share with a 34.6% air-yard share, 94.3 receiving yards per game (2.38 yards per route run), and a 27.5% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Bolts have reverted to a two-high heavy approach with the fourth-highest rate of the coverage structure (62.5%). Against two high, Addison’s target share has skyrocketed to 25.9% with 3.34 yards per route run and a team-leading 36.1% first-read share. Addison can excel this week against a secondary that, since Week 4, has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Oronde Gadsden II has exploded over the last two weeks as the TE12 and TE1 in weekly scoring. Since Week 6, he has had a 75% route share, a 17.2% target share, 116 receiving yards per game (3.09 yards per route run), and a 24% first-read share. He has five red zone targets and two deep targets over the last two games. This week, he faces a Minnesota pass defense that has the highest two-high rate in the NFL (70.3%). In this small two-game sample, against two high, Gadsden ll has had a 21.4% target share, 2.62 yards per route run, and a 26.7% first-read share. Minnesota has allowed the 12th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends, but I still expect Gadsden II to get a healthy target share and usage this week, considering the coverage structure.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.