Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Quentin Johnston returned to the lineup last week, but I seriously wonder how healthy he truly is after last week’s usage. While Johnston had an 88.5% route share, he had only a 9.1% target share and a 9.7% first-read share, which is not something we have seen this season from Johnston. Johnston has only two games this season where he has had less than a 19.1% target share, and they happen to be last week and Week 5 when he sustained the hamstring injury. He isn’t on the injury report this week, so I hope he’s back to full health. Overall, Johnston is the WR9 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 19% target share with 67.8 receiving yards per game (1.72 yards per route run) and a 23.1% first-read share. He has seven red zone targets and ten deep targets this season. He’s third on the team in red zone targets and leads the squad in deep targets. This week, he faces a Minnesota pass defense that has the highest two-high rate in the NFL (70.3%). Against two high, Johnston has seen his usage decline with a 15.3% target share, 1.06 yards per route run, and a 20.3% first-read share. With the health concerns and the coverage matchup this week. I’ll be below consensus with Johnston. Minnesota has been bleeding out production to perimeter wide receivers, so even with limited volume, Johnston could pay off this week, but I’m skeptical. Minnesota has allowed the highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
T.J. Hockenson is the TE22 in fantasy points per game with only one TE1 week this season (TE5). Hockenson has a 17.6% target share with 32.7 receiving yards per game (1.16 yards per route run) and a 16.5% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Bolts have reverted to a two-high heavy approach with the fourth-highest rate of the coverage structure (62.5%). Against two high, Hockenson has had a 16.5% target share with 0.95 yards per route run and a 15.5% first-read share. Those dips across the board are concerning, especially when also considering that the Chargers have allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends. Consider a streaming option at tight end this week over Hockenson.
Since arriving in Cincy, Joe Flacco has been the QB15 and QB6 in weekly scoring. Over the last two games, among 32 qualifying passers, he ranks fifth in passing yards per game, eighth in adjusted completion rate, tenth in highly accurate throw rate, and 15th in fantasy points per dropback. Flacco could easily flirt with QB1 production again this week. The Jets’ pass defense has been underwhelming this season allowing the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing touchdowns, and the fourth-highest passer rating. Flacco should have time to operate against a pass rush that has the tenth-lowest pressure rate.
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