Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I am once again back to cover the NBA this year from a DFS perspective, giving you strategy and player advice for every Thursday and Monday slate. It was a great season last year, where I missed out on some big wins but ended up profitable on the season. Let’s run it back again this year, shall we?
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a two-game slate tonight, so you will have to get creative with your GPP lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
- DraftKings: $10,500
- FanDuel: $11,300
Oh, how great it is to be talking about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander once again on NBA DFS slates. He started the season off strong with 35 points to go with five boards, five assists, two steals, and a pair of blocks. Not too shabby.
Of course, Gilgeous-Alexander likely won’t be playing in a double-overtime game again tonight, but his 50+ fantasy point output should be expected throughout the season. The Pacers’ defense shouldn’t be particularly strong, and if either Cason Wallace or Luguentz Dort is out, that only gives additional time and usage for last year’s MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander will be highly rostered — over half of rosters — but I’m buying the chalk.
Nikola Jokic (C – DEN)
- DraftKings: $11,500
- FanDuel: $12,100
I’m not re-inventing the wheel with either of these picks, but Nikola Jokic has the highest ceiling of the day and will on any slate he plays. Jokic’s price got over $13,000 at points last year on DraftKings last year, so he’s honestly not as expensive all things considered.
It’s harder to find pure value to combine with the pay-up option here, but given the Thunder’s injuries, there are some choices. Jokic will, of course, be heavily rostered, but I will once again be buying the chalk.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
Jimmy Butler (SF, PF – GSW)
- DraftKings: $7,400
- FanDuel: $8,100
Jimmy Butler might be one of the highest rostered players on the slate, but that’s what you get for cash options on a two-game slate. Butler played 35 minutes with a 27% usage rate in the season opener to go with 31 points on the court.
I don’t think that will be a consistent output from Butler, but considering he attempted 14 shots in the opener, that’s a promising number for future expectations. Butler will be on the court plenty tonight and will get numerous opportunities, the basic ingredients of a good cash game option. Denver’s defense isn’t exactly unstoppable, and this game features the slightly highest total between the two games.
Cameron Johnson (SF, PF – DEN)
- DraftKings: $5,900
- FanDuel: $6,300
It’s tough to go in on a player’s first game with a new team as a cash option in DFS, but the options are a bit limited on a two-game slate. Cameron Johnson averaged 33 fantasy points a game last year and is over $1,000 cheaper than Jamal Murray, who usually takes a bit to get going.
Johnson is my second-favorite Denver option behind Nikola Jokic. Denver’s offense will be a lot more dynamic than Brooklyn’s, so I expect the 29-year-old to get additional run beyond his 13 attempts a game last year. I’m projecting him for around 32 minutes with that usage. He’s a solid cash play.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
Isaiah Jackson (C – IND)
- DraftKings: $5,500
- FanDuel: $4,300
I can’t say I’m in love with this play, but I expect most casual NBA DFS players to look at this name and go “who?” After tearing his achilles early last year, Isaiah Jackson will slot back into the starting lineup, where Indy needs the size.
Jackson played 22+ minutes in two of his last three games, but that was also nearly a year ago now, so it’s a little tough to project his usage tonight. That uncertainty is why he’s a good GPP play, as there are a lot of potential outcomes. Jackson is not the biggest spend-down option, but with a ton of rostership going to Nikola Jokic, Jackson will fall through the cracks.
Andrew Nembhard (PG, SG – IND)
- DraftKings: $6,400
- FanDuel: $6,200
The Indiana Pacers are going to be quite the interesting team to figure out without Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell for a bit. Obviously, Haliburton is a bigger name, which is where Andrew Nembhard comes in.
Without Haliburton on the court last year, Nembhard got a 7% usage bump. Without Haliburton and McConnell, no Pacer saw a bigger bump in usage than Nembhard. His play is completely different. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray will eat up a lot of rostership, resulting in a low-rostered Nembhard, who will make for a solid guard option tonight.
NBA DFS Value Plays
Jaylin Williams (C – OKC)
- DraftKings: $3,200
- FanDuel: $3,700
Without Alex Caruso tonight, Jaylin Williams gets a direct bump. He is under-priced and will be low-rostered. I don’t exactly think he will break the slate, but I do expect him to have significant enough play tonight where he isn’t just a punt option.
You can project Williams for around 16-20 minutes, which is plenty. Even more if Cason Wallace or Luguentz Dort don’t suit up. Williams averaged 1.17 fantasy points per minute last year, and if he’s on the court, he’ll get the usage. He’s a great play tonight.
Luguentz Dort (G – OKC)/Cason Wallace (G – OKC)
- DraftKings: $4,300/$4,500
- FanDuel: $4,400/$5,200
Besides figuring out the top three between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic and Steph Curry, guessing the right value spots on the Thunder is where you can separate yourself from the rest of the field.
Alex Caruso is already out tonight. Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace are questionable, so I added both. Obviously, if one doesn’t play, the other will get steamed. If both play, my lean is Dort. No Jaylen Williams only helps him more, and he’ll see more minutes than Wallace. Combine that with a slightly cheaper price tag, and you have my paydown selection between the two.
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