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Fantasy Football Trade Advice
Players to Buy
3 down weeks for Bijan Robinson. If you can somehow buy low…do it.
Running back Ashton Jeanty continued to look like a three-down workhorse. He handled 90% of the snaps, with 13 carries for 42 yards and 5 receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown. Per Next Gen Stats, Jeanty forced 9 missed tackles (his second-most in a game this season) and generated 71 yards after the catch, a career high. He also logged 3 goal-line carries and handled virtually all of the two-minute offense. Through Week 9, Jeanty has now forced 46 missed tackles, the third-most in the NFL entering Sunday Night Football.
The advice remains the same as the last two weeks.
The Raiders – per the SOS tool – have a top playoff schedule for fantasy RBs. Per the SOS tool…Raiders have the No. 1 schedule for RBs in the fantasy playoffs. Although being fully transparent, the Eagles/Texans aren’t amazing matchups even if they are somewhat plus spots on paper.
It’s not perfect, but there are some decent spots for a three-down workhorse like Jeanty, who ranks 12TH in the NFL in total touches.
RB15 in XPGG and RB17 FPPG.
The Broncos x2, Eagles and Texans aren’t ideal – even if the Chargers/Cowboys/Giants are fantastic. Week 17 versus the Giants might be worth it to acquire Jeanty for a championship-level performance. I still want to buy Jeanty.
In the backfield, Kenneth Walker reclaimed control of the rotation, playing 54% of the snaps and handling both goal-line carries (a role that often goes to Zach Charbonnet). Walker rushed 11 times for 42 yards (3.8 YPC) and caught 2 passes for 19 yards, marking his first multi-catch game since Week 1 — a subtle but important development in his usage. Charbonnet played 38% of snaps, rushing 8 times for 25 yards and catching his lone target for 21 yards, while George Holani saw cleanup duty in the fourth quarter of the blowout.
I never want to have major takeaways after a blowout regarding usage, but the Walker bump is noteworthy.
Now, Walker has had GL opportunities before, so it’s possible it just goes right back to that split next week. But if it doesn’t…that makes Walker a screaming “buy-low” option.
If you are hurting at RB – I like buying Walker dirt cheap, just at the potential. The worst case is that he just remains an RB2 on a great offense.
TreVeyon Henderson continued to be a dual-threat option, catching four passes for 32 yards on six targets (21% target share) and contributing in pass protection. He looked much better in pass pro this week – which I think is going to grant him more touches/snaps even if Rhamondre Stevenson returns. The Patriots’ backfield was controlled by Henderson, who played 77% of the offensive snaps (not including the final two kneel downs) and handled 18 total touches (14 carries for 55 yards, plus 4 catches for 32 yards). His workload dominance firmly establishes him as the lead back moving forward, as long as Rhamondre Stevenson is sidelined. Terrell Jennings mixed in on 23% of the snaps and made the most of his touches, rushing 11 times for 35 yards and a short touchdown while catching one pass for nine yards — functioning as the goal-line and short-yardage complement to Henderson. A classic thunder and lightning backfield. But expect another back to be added – given Stevenson’s injury and the reporting that NE is going to trade for another RB. Good for Henderson to finally flash the juice in back-to-back games. Again. Rookies always have bigger roles in the second halves of seasons. Hope you were somewhat patient. More importantly, the Fantasy playoffs – Pats have Bills/Ravens/Jets (with Bengals and Giants Weeks 12-13). If Henderson can just hit his stride during these three weeks, he can finish his rookie campaign on a high note. The Patriots have the No. 1 schedule ROS for RBs.
Players to Sell
Derrick Henry powered the ground game, rushing 19 times for 119 yards (6.3 YPC), generating +36 rushing yards over expected — his most in a game since Week 1 — and 118 of those yards came after contact, marking the fifth-highest total by a running back this season (next gen stats). Henry faced light boxes on 26% of his carries, his highest rate of the year, and ripped off 66 yards on five such attempts. He was stuffed twice at the goal line, leaving fantasy managers wanting more, but his efficiency and power were back on full display. Note that his playoff schedule is tougher. Something to file away before the fantasy football trade deadline. Weeks 16-17 are Pats/Packers.
The Pats matchup is the one I am most concerned about given they have not allowed any RB to go over 50 rushing yards. And since Henny is not used as a receiver, he can’t take advantage of their defense’s weakness. Being nit-picky, but something to keep top of mind regarding Henry in trades.
Hall erupted for 147 yards and two scores, even throwing a TD pass back in Week 8, presenting a perfect sell-high spot. His upcoming schedule (CLE, NE) is a gauntlet, and the Jets offense remains volatile. Weeks 15-16 are both on the road, and Week 17 is the Pats. If he stays in New York, the bust risk is high; if he’s traded, role potentially uncertain. Flip him now for a locked-in asset before regression hits. Again…the Bengals defense is TERRIBLE (see Bears game).
Making his first NFL start, seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai was unstoppable, rushing 26 times for 176 yards (6.8 YPC) and adding 3 receptions for 22 yards on 5 targets, while playing 75% of the offensive snaps. He forced six missed tackles and generated 123 rushing yards after contact, both career highs. According to Next Gen Stats, Monangai was hit behind the line of scrimmage on only 11.5% of his carries (3 times) — the lowest rate by any running back with 20+ carries this season. His combination of vision, balance, and burst powered a Bears offense that looked confident and physical throughout.
Who knows when D’Andre Swift will return after he failed to practice at all last week with a groin injury. I thought maybe that Monangai would be a perfect “sell-high” candidate, but waiver wire guys are so hard to trade for value that matches their production. If you can get a good deal – take it. I think you just hold and ride it out, as the schedule is tough in the playoffs (and after the Giants at home. The Bears have a tougher schedule for RBs in the playoffs: CLE, GB, and SF. Eventually, you will need to get off this ride. Maybe not now…but something to keep in mind if somebody offers Swift to you in a trade.
And although I’ve admitted that Swift has played better this season – returning from an injury doesn’t inspire me with confidence, especially if it’s a true 50/50 split versus a 1A/1B Bears’ backfield.
The backfield continued to sputter. Alvin Kamara played 58 percent of the snaps, carrying six times for just 14 yards (lost a fumble) and catching one pass for three yards, while rookie Devin Neal played 40 percent and added 11 rushing yards plus one short reception. Neal handled the Saints’ only red-zone rushing attempt, but the pair split passing routes nearly 50-50. Taysom Hill ran four times for 30 yards — nearly all of which came on that single 29-yard burst in the first quarter — but otherwise had little impact.
The Saints RB1 continues to look like a shell of himself. Bottom-dwelling offense. And he has been adamant about not being traded, so he’s stuck on the Saints.
Kamara is PFF’s lowest graded RB this season.
No one has scored fewer points under expectation than Kamara. He should be RB15. He’s instead RB30.
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