Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
D’Andre Swift will be back this week. Swift and Kyle Monangai will split up the work. Ben Johnson has stated that he will ride the hot hand, so this is an uneasy situation for Swift and Kyle Monangai regarding who will lead the backfield in touches in Week 10. In Weeks 7 & 8, when both were active, Swift had a 51.2% snap rate with 16.3 touches and 104.5 total yards per game. He had 12 red zone rushing attempts (Monangai had four) while also sporting a 32.4% route share and a 4.7% target share. Among 62 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 15th in explosive run rates and 28th in missed tackle rate. He likely will get the first crack at running away with the backfield volume this week. The Giants are a wonderful matchup for backs this season. Since Week 5, they have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the highest missed tackle rate, the eighth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the third-highest explosive run rate.
Kyle Monangai will split work with D’Andre Swift this week. Ben Johnson is leaving the light on for Monangai to lead the backfield in touches this week, stating that he’ll ride the hot hand. I do expect Swift to get the first crack at leading the backfield this week, though. In Weeks 7-8, with Swift and Monangai active, Monangai played 45.7% of the snaps with 11 touches and 59 total yards per game. Swift had the lead in red zone work with 12 carries inside the 20-yard line versus Monangai’s four. In those two games, Monangai also had a 29.4% route share and a 5.1% target share. Among 62 qualifying backs, Monangai ranks 17th in explosive run rate, 29th in missed tackle rate, and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. Monangai is a strong RB2/flex this week. The Giants are a wonderful matchup for backs this season. Since Week 5, they have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the highest missed tackle rate, the eighth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the third-highest explosive run rate.
Rhamondre/Treveyon,
I don’t know if it’s a one-week fluke or a sign of things to come, but last week Kenneth Walker finally got the red zone work over Zach Charbonnet and led the way with a 56.9% snap share. Walker had a 54.2% red zone snap share (Charbonnet, 37.5%) and had all three of the team’s red zone rushing attempts. We’ll see if it continues, but it was nice to see. Since Week 4, Walker has averaged 14.4 touches and 72 total yards. He still is crushing Zach Charbonnet in per-touch efficiency. Among 62 qualifying backs, Walker ranks seventh in explosive run rates and sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt. This week, he gets to face an Arizona run defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and has had the lowest stuff rate.
We’ll see if this usage pattern holds, but last week Zach Charbonnet didn’t lead the team in snapshare for the backfield overall (35.3%) or in the red zone (35.4%). Kenneth Walker had all three of the team’s red zone rushing attempts. Since Week 4, Charbonnet has averaged 12 touches and 46 total yards. Charbonnet has had only a 14% missed tackle rate and 2.06 yards after contact per attempt this season. Neither of those numbers will blow your socks off. He’s a flex play with a good matchup this week. This week, he gets to face an Arizona run defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and has had the lowest stuff rate.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Since Week 6, Kimani Vidal has been the RB19 in fantasy points per game with 17.5 touches and 82.6 total yards per game. Among 62 qualifying backs, he ranks sixth in explosive run rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he faces a Pittsburgh run defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the 14th-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, and ranked 17th in missed tackle rate. During the same span, the Steelers have also had the sixth-lowest stuff rate and allowed the tenth-most yards after contact per attempt. They are all over the map with analytical markers, so there’s a path for Vidal to have a solid game this week, but behind the Bolts’ beat-up offensive line, I don’t know if they’ll be able to clear the way for him consistently, but I could be wrong.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Last week, Devin Singletary surprisingly led the Giants’ backfield with a 55.4% snap rate, ten touches, and 51 total yards. He had eight of 13 running back rushing attempts, their only red zone rushing attempt, and a 35.9% route share (6.1% target share). Singletary hasn’t been amazing on a per-touch basis this season, but he has been better than Tyrone Tracy Jr. with a 14% missed tackle rate and 2.14 yards after contact per attempt. This week, he’ll be a low-end flex against an improved Chicago run defense. Since Week 5, Chicago has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Sadly, we were all wrong about Tyrone Tracy Jr. With Cam Skattego going down, Tracy was expected to inherit the everydown role again, but Devin Singletary outpaced him last week. Last week, Tracy had a 44.6% snap rate, five of 13 running back rushing attempts, a 46.2% route share (12.1% target share). He finished with eight touches and 37 total yards. I expect the backfield split to continue. Tracy hasn’t been impressive this season on a per-touch basis with a 10% missed tackle rate and only 2.08 yards after contact per attempt. This week, he’ll be a low-end flex against an improved Chicago run defense. Since Week 5, Chicago has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out for Week 10. TreVeyon Henderson will lead the backfield again this week. Last week, Henderson led the backfield as the RB15 for the week. He had a 75% snap rate, 18 touches, 87 total yards, a 67.5% route share, and a 17.2% target share. Terrell Jennings out-carried him in the red zone three vs. two. Henderson remains one of the most inefficient runners in the NFL with a 6% missed tackle rate and 1.69 yards after contact per attempt. Last week, it was much of the same, even with an expanded role, as he didn’t have a single missed tackle and only 1.71 yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Tampa Bay has continued to field a strong run defense, allowing the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and logging the ninth-highest stuff rate. Henderson is a volume-based RB2.
Woody Marks will work in tandem with Nick Chubb again this week. Since Week 7, he has finished as the RB16, RB14, and RB47 in weekly scoring, averaging 12.6 touches and 57.7 total yards. He has a solid 4.5% explosive run rate, but only a 4% missed tackle rate and 2.18 yards after contact per attempt. Marks is a volume play with a bad matchup. Since Week 5, Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the eighth-lowest explosive run rate.
Nick Chubb will split the work with Woody Marks again this week. Since Week 7, he has averaged 12 touches and 38 total yards with a 26.7% snap rate. Chubb has only a 7% missed tackle rate and 2.14 yards after contact per attempt this season. He’s a low-end touchdown-dependent flex play this week. Since Week 5, Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the eighth-lowest explosive run rate.
Sit’em
The stink of the Saints’ offense has crushed Alvin Kamara. Since Week 5, he has averaged 11.2 touches and 44.4 total yards as the RB43 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. He has played 51.4-62.5% of the offensive snaps in four of his past five games. His per-touch efficiency remains bottom-of-the-barrel with only a 14% missed tackle rate and 1.69 yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Carolina has allowed the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-lowest success rate. Sit Kamara.
Bill’s season has been wrecked with the Commanders falling apart. Their defense hasn’t been good enough to put them in a ton of positive game scripts, and he hasn’t had enough of a passing game role to save him in fantasy. He hasn’t had more than two targets in any game this season. Since Week 6, Bill has averaged 13.6 touches and 41.6 total yards. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 5. Since Week 6, his efficiency stats have also tanked with zero explosive runs, a 12% missed tackle rate, and only 2.12 yards after contact per attempt. His offensive line hasn’t done him any favors with only 0.96 yards before contact per attempt during that stretch. He’s a sit again this week. Since Week 5, Detroit has allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, and the fifth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Last week, Emari Demercado led the way on the ground for Arizona with 14 of 23 running back rushing attempts. He had two of the five running back red zone rushing attempts while playing 40% of the snaps with an 18.9% route share (3.2% target share). Demercado finished with 15 touches and 78 total yards. He has a 13.6% explosive run rate but only a 9% missed tackle rate and 2.09 yards after contact per attempt. This isn’t the week to look to his backfield for a flex play. Since Week 5, Seattle has remained an elite run defense, giving up the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Sit Demercado.
Last week, Zonovan Knight led the backfield with a 56.9% snap rate, three red zone rushing attempts, and a 45.9% route share (6.5% target share). He finished with only 11 touches and 47 total yards. Knight hasn’t been good on a per-touch basis with a 5% missed tackle rate and 1.58 yards after contact per attempt. This isn’t the week to look to his backfield for a flex play. Since Week 5, Seattle has remained an elite run defense, giving up the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Sit Knight.
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