Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Kyle Pitts is the TE12 in fantasy points per game and has seen five red zone targets and three deep targets this season. Pitts is having a strong season, and it’s like no one cares. He has a 20% target share with 47.8 receiving yards per game, 1.49 yards per route run, and a 17.4% first-read share. Pitts should post another nice TE1 stat line in Week 10. Indy has been a wonderful matchup for tight ends, giving up the third-most receiving yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per reception, and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Since Week 5, Cade Otton has been the TE18 in fantasy points per game with one TE1 outing (TE11). Since Week 5, he has had a 19.2% target share with 59.3 receiving yards per game, 2.14 yards per route run, and a 12.5% first-read share. He hasn’t had any high leverage usage in those four games, with zero red zone or deep targets. That’s not great, but Otton still is a strong streaming option this week. New England has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
With Dillon Gabriel under center, Fannin Jr. has been the TE11 in fantasy points per game with a 19.6% target share, 48 receiving yards per game, 1.86 yards per route run, and a 20.5% first-read share. He has three red zone targets in his last four games. Across the last five weeks, the Jets have allowed the 12th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends. Fannin will flirt with TE1 production again this week.
Since Week 4, Theo Johnson has been the TE13 in fantasy points per game with an 18.6% target share, 31.7 receiving yards per game, 1.17 yards per route run, and a 21.2% first-read share. Touchdowns have helped Johnson immensely as he has six red zone targets in those six games and five scores. Johnson should have another strong game this week against a defense that, overall, has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game to the position and the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game over the last five weeks.
Fantasy Football Deep Plays to Consider
Juwan Johnson is the TE15 in fantasy points per game with five TE1 outings this season in weekly scoring. In his nine games played, he has had five red zone targets and two deep targets. Johnson has a 17.5% target share, 44.3 receiving yards per game, 1.45 yards per route run, and a 21.1% first-read share. He’ll likely see a bump in target share with Rashid Shaheed gone. Johnson is a solid streaming tight end option this week, assuming he can get close to league-average quarterback play from Tyler Shough. Carolina has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game, the fourth-highest yards per reception, and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
I know Colston Loveland smashed last week, but Cole Kmet is back this week. Kmet will cut into Loveland’s snaps and routes this week. The question is how much. In the last game that Kmet was healthy (Week 6), Kmet had a 30.3% route share, which was behind Colston Loveland (39.4%). Loveland could lead the way in routes and snaps this week, but Kmet will be involved. This feels like a yesteryear Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox situation. New York has utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (59.1%). Against single high, Loveland is third on the team with a 21% target per route run rate and 1.68 yards per route run. Loveland has four red zone targets and two deep targets this season. Loveland is a decent streaming option this week, but he carries a sizable risk, and the matchup isn’t amazing. New York has allowed the 15th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Hunter Henry is the TE14 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weekly finishes (TE1, TE10), but sadly, none since Week 4. Henry has a 16% target share with 40.9 receiving yards per game, 1.59 yards per route run, and a 17.5% first-read share. He has eight red zone targets and four deep targets this season. This week, he faces a Tampa Bay secondary that, since Week 5, has utilized two high at the third-highest rate (61.4%). Against two high, Henry has seen his target per route run rate drop to 15% with only 1.32 yards per route run. Don’t expect a huge game from Henry this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
With Tucker Kraft out for the rest of the season, Luke Musgrave will assume the full-time tight end role. This season, he has had only a 23% route share, a 16% target per route run rate, and 1.40 yards per route run. Musgrave will have some streamable weeks, but this isn’t one of them. The Eagles have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards per game and schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Sit’em
Zach Ertz isn’t on the streaming radar this week. Detroit has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (58%). Single high has been Ertz’s kryptonite. Against single high, he has had only a 15% target per route run rate and 1.03 yards per route run. Add in that Detroit has allowed the 13th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends, and it makes Ertz an easy sit this week.
Jonnu Smith & Pat Freiermuth (PIT)
The Steelers’ tight ends have become unplayable for fantasy again. Last week, Pat Freiermuth had only a 43.6% route share while Jonnu Smith logged a 41% route share. That’s not enough playing time for tight ends facing a defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to the position.
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