Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Travis Etienne is set to eat this week. He’s the RB17 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.3 touches and 87.3 total yards. Etienne ranks 12th in snap share, 14th in weighted opportunities, and eighth in red zone touches. Among 64 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks 31st in missed tackle rate and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. He should pad those tackle breaking stats this week. The Bolts run defense has quietly been one of the worst in the league all season. Since Week 6, they have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, the second-highest yards before contact per attempt, and have the ninth-lowest stuff rate.
Since Week 6, Vidal has been the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19.2 touches and 87.6 total yards. Among 64 qualifying backs, he ranks 20th in explosive run rate and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. I don’t expect another massive game from Vidal this week, though. The Jags’ run defense has been nasty. Since Week 6, they have allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the tenth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Vidal 60.4% zone), and the fourth-lowest yards before contact per attempt.
It looks like Woody Marks has taken the backfield over again. Last week, he played 80% of the offensive snaps with 16 touches and 81 total yards as the RB11 for the week. Overall, among 64 qualifying backs, Marks ranks 25th in explosive run rate and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he gets to face a Tennessee run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the 12th-highest explosive run rate, and the 12th-most yards before contact per attempt.
RJ Harvey is set to step into an expanded role this week with J.K. Dobbins out. We’ll see what that role will be, but I expect him to lead the backfield in touches and contribute on early downs and in the passing game. Harvey has been effective this season with his workload. Among 64 qualifying backs, he ranks 30th in explosive run rate and 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt. Among 61 backs in the passing game, he is third in target per route run rate, eighth in yards per route run, and 11th in first downs per route run. The Chiefs have been vulnerable to backs in the passing game, giving up the 11th-most receiving yards per game and the eighth-highest yards per reception, but they have been a tough rushing matchup. Since Week 6, Kansas City has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, and had the sixth-highest stuff rate. Harvey will need volume and passing game usage to carry him over the finish line as a strong play this week, but that is quite possible.
Last week, Aaron Jones took over the Minnesota backfield with a 70.8% snap rate. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 11.5 touches and 83.5 total yards while posting RB18 and RB12 weekly finishes. Since Week 9, Jones has had an 11.1% explosive run rate, a 6% missed tackle rate, and only 1.44 yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if the explosive play fest continues, but he has a solid matchup this week to offer RB2/flex value. Since Week 6, Chicago has ranked 16th in rushing yards per game while giving up the 11th-highest explosive run rate and the tenth-highest yards before contact per attempt.
David Montgomery is the RB22 in fantasy points per game, averaging 13.2 touches and 63.6 total yards per game. He ranks 25th in carries, 21st in red zone touches, and 23rd in rushing yards. Among 64 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 43rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery should have a solid game this week. Since Week 6, Philly has ranked 18th in rushing yards per game allowed while also having the eighth-lowest stuff rate and giving up the 13th-highest missed tackle rate and ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
The backfield is slowly turning in Kenneth Walker’s direction, but it’s tough to tell that from the box scores. Last week, Walker had 14 carries and 67 rushing yards. Zach Charbonnet finished with the same number of carries, and he and George Holani got into the end zone. Walker tied for the team lead with four red zone rushing attempts and led the way with a 40.7% snap rate, a 30.8% route share, and a 46.2% red zone snap share. In the first half, Walker had a 57.1% snap share while Charbonnet had a 28.6% snap rate inside the 20-yard line. Seattle won’t run away with this week’s game, so we can cancel out last week’s George Holani blip. Based on these numbers, I do think that positive regression is coming for Walker, and it could be this week. Among 64 qualifying backs, Walker ranks seventh in explosive run rate and fifth in missed tackle rate. This week, he faces a Rams run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, the ninth-highest success rate, the 11th-highest yards per carry to gap runs, the seventh-highest success rate to gap runs, and has logged the 13th-lowest stuff rate. Walker has been the leader for the team in gap run concepts (44.2%). I’m just as worried about Walker disappointing again this week, but the data is quite positive for him this week. I’ll close my eyes and plug him into lineups and trust the process.
Since Week 8, Rachaad White has retained the lead-back role for Tampa Bay. Across his last two games, he has averaged 15 touches and 57.5 total yards with a 64.8% snap rate, a 52.8% route share, and a 10.4% target share. White’s per-touch metrics haven’t been great this season, with a 1.1% explosive run rate, a 14% missed tackle rate, and 1.70 yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 8, he has had three red zone rushing attempts, with Sean Tucker leading the way with four. Tucker will have a role this week, but I expect White to lead the Bucs in snaps and touches out of the backfield. White is s strong play this week against the Bills’ leaky run defense. Since Week 6, they have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the highest missed tackle rate, and yards after contact per attempt.
If you’re picking between flex options from the Arizona backfield this week, Emari Demercado is my preferred option. Last week, he had only one red zone rushing attempt, which isn’t great, but he has been the more efficient back by a mile with a 15.4% explosive run rate and 19% missed tackle rate. Last week, he played only 41.1% of the snaps with a 38.9% route share, but he turned his seven touches into 104 total yards. The matchup isn’t great this week, so Demercado likely needs a touchdown or big play to pay off as a flex. Since Week 6, the 49ers have allowed the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Across his last two games, Tucker has averaged a 33.6% snap rate with 11 touches and 46.5 total yards per game. He has led the backfield in red zone rushing attempts with four (White, three). Tucker sports a 6.3% explosive run rate this season, but his 9% missed tackle rate and 1.88 yards after contact per attempt aren’t as impressive. Tucker will operate as Tampa Bay’s Tyler Allgeier this week. He’s flex viable and really needs a touchdown to pay off. Since Week 6, they have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the highest missed tackle rate, and yards after contact per attempt.
Sit’em
Last week, Tyrone Tracy resumed his lead-back duties for New York. He played 65.7% of the snaps with 14 of 22 running back rushing attempts with a 37.2% route share (5.6% target share). He had only one red zone rushing attempt, though, as Devin Singletary had three. Tracy finished with 15 touches and 71 total yards. Tracy is a volume-driven flex that is a risky bet to get into the end zone this week. Tracy has only a 3.1% explosive run rate, an 8% missed tackle rate, and 2.03 yards after contact per attempt this season. He won’t find much room to run this week. Since Week 6, Green Bay has allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fewest yards after contact per attempt.
With Isiah Pacheco likely out again this week, Kareem Hunt will operate as the team’s bell cow again. In Week 9, Hunt played 80.7% of the snaps with a 50% route share (2.9% target share). Hunt finished with only 12 touches and 55 total yards. Hunt is a volume play. He has only a 1% explosive run rate this season with a 10% missed tackle rate and 2.23 yards after contact per attempt. Hunt needs volume and likely at least one touchdown to pay off for fantasy this week. Since Week 6, Denver has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest explosive run rate, the 13th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-lowest rushing success rate.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WAS)
Bench Bill this week. Before Chris Rodriguez got hurt last week, I looked like Bill had been benched. In the first half, he had only a 16% snap rate while handling only two of ten running back carries with a 7.7% route share. Chris Rodriguez is expected to be a full-go this week, which means Bill will only be a change of pace back.
Zonovan Knight left last week’s game with an ankle injury. He practiced on a limited basis this week and has been listed as questionable. Last week, he had a 46.6% snap rate, a 27.8% route share, an 8.9% target share, 11 touches, and 37 total yards. Knight led the backfield with two red zone rushing attempts. He hasn’t been impressive this season with only a 2.1% explosive run rate, an 8% missed tackle rate, and 1.60 yards after contact per attempt. Knight is a low-end touchdown-dependent flex. Since Week 6, the 49ers have allowed the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
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