Need help with some Start em or sit em lineup picks? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Quarterbacks
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Running Backs
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Wide Receivers
Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice: Tight Ends
Start’em
Since his return, Strange has been the TE4 and TE7 in weekly scoring. Since Week 12, he has had a 15.8% target share with 69 receiving yards per game, 2.94 yards per route run, and a 15.4% first-read share. In those two games, he had one red zone target and four deep targets. His usage is increasing at the perfect time for a boom game this week. Indy has bled out production to tight ends all season, allowing the second-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to the position.
Since Week 3, Dalton Schultz has been the TE12 in fantasy points per game with an 18.6% target share, 1.62 yards per route run, 49.5 receiving yards per game, and a 19.3% first-read share. In those ten games, he has had seven red zone targets and five deep targets. Since Week 11, the Chiefs have utilized two high at the second-highest rate (61.9%). Since Week 3, against two high, Schultz has had a 20.3% target share, 1.81 yards per route run, and a 22% first-read share. Schultz is a solid TE1 again this week. The Chiefs have faced the sixth-fewest tight end targets per game, but they have ranked 17th in yards per reception allowed. Kansas City is a neutral matchup for Schultz.
Since Week 10, with Tyler Shough under center, Johnson has had a 17.1% target share with 59 receiving yards per game, 1.88 yards per route run, and a 20.3% first-read share as the TE5 in fantasy points per game. In those three games, he has only one red zone target and one deep target. Johnson is a solid TE1 again this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends, but they have given up the seventh-most receiving touchdowns per game to the position.
Zach Ertz is the TE13 in fantasy points per game with three TE1 outings this season (TE2, TE5, TE3). Among tight ends, he ranks third in deep targets and 15th in red zone targets. Minnesota has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (66.4%). Against two high, Ertz has a 22.1% target share with 1.82 yards per route run and a 25% first-read share. Ertz is a strong streaming option this week. Minnesota ranks 16th in receiving yards per game and has given up the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Dallas Goedert is the TE10 in fantasy points per game, but he hasn’t finished as a TE1 in weekly scoring since Week 8. Goedert has a 17.2% target share with 36.6 receiving yards per game, 1.33 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. He is tied for second on the team with seven red zone targets while kicking in six deep targets. Since Week 6, the Bolts have had a second-highest two high rate (62.7%). Against two high, Goedert has seen his numbers climb with an 18.6% target share, 1.62 yards per route run, and a 21.1% first-read share. The Chargers have held tight ends to the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game, but that is more related to them facing the fourth-fewest targets per game to the position. Los Angeles has also given up the 12th-highest yards per reception and the eighth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends. This is a plus matchup for Goedert.
Deep Plays to Consider
Since Week 6, Gadsden has been the TE9 in fantasy points per game with a 17.2% target share, 65.4 receiving yards per game, 2.30 yards per route run, and a 21.3% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had ten red zone targets and six deep targets. Since Week 7, Philly has utilized two high at the fourth-highest rate (56.3%). Since Week 6, against two high, Gadsden has had an 18.6% target share with 2.37 yards per route run and a 20.6% first-read share. He’ll face an uphill climb this week against a defense that has shut down tight ends. Philly has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
In JJ McCarthy’s six starts, TJ Hockensen hasn’t finished higher than TE19 in weekly scoring. In those six games, he has had a 13.8% target share with 17.3 receiving yards per game, 0.75 yards per route run, and a 13% first-read share with one red zone target. Hockenson is a low-end streaming option this week. Washington has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
With Shedeur Sanders under center, Harold Fannin Jr. has finished as the TE15 and TE12 in weekly scoring. He has led the team in those two games with a 23.9% target share, 41.5 receiving yards per game, 2.02 yards per route run, and ranked second with a 19.2% first-read share. Fannin is a low-end streaming option this week at tight end. Tennessee has held tight ends to the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game.
Last week, Darren Waller returned to the lineup with a 65.5% route share, a 13% target share, 47 receiving yards, 2.47 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. He had one red zone target and two deep targets. Overall, Waller has a 17% target per route run rate with 1.86 yards per route run and a 12.9% first-read share. In his five games played, he has five red zone targets and three deep targets. Waller is a streaming option this week, but don’t expect a massive stat line from him. The Jets have allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the seventh-fewest yards per reception to tight ends.
Mason Taylor has seen his role in the passing game dwindle in recent weeks. He hasn’t managed double-digit fantasy points since Week 8. That was also the last game that he had a red zone target. Mason Taylor is the TE31 in fantasy points per game with three TE1 outings this season. Since Week 11, he has had a 14.8% target share with 24 receiving yards per game, 1.06 yards per route run, and a 14.5% first-read share. Taylor is on the streaming radar this week, though. The matchup is wonderful. The Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Mark Andrews has fallen off a cliff this season as the TE19 in fantasy points per game. He has four TE1 outings this season. In the other weeks, he has been unplayable. Last week was the first time all season that he had more than 40 receiving yards in a game, and most of that came in garbage time. Andrews has a 16.1% target share with 27.7 receiving yards per game, 1.40 yards per route run, and a 21.3% first-read share. He leads the team with ten red zone targets while seeing only one deep target this season. This week, he faces a Pittsburgh pass defense that has utilized single high at the fifth-highest rate (59.8%). Against single high, Andrews has seen his target share increase to 16.7% with 1.84 yards per route run and a 19.5% first-read share. It’s a dice roll, but Andrews could finish as a TE1 this week. The Steelers have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Sit’em
On paper, the matchup for Isaiah Likely puts him on the streaming radar, but I wouldn’t plug him into a lineup this week. Yes, the Steelers have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, but the coverage matchup doesn’t favor Likely. This week, he faces a Pittsburgh pass defense that has utilized single high at the fifth-highest rate (59.8%). Against single high, Likely has only a 9.6% target share with 1.58 yards per route run and a 9% first-read share. That’s not usage that I want to depend on the week before many leagues begin the fantasy playoffs. Could it pay off? Sure, it’s possible, but there’s an equal chance that he burns you and you’re left wishing that you didn’t stream him for Week 14.
Cade Otton is the TE26 in fantasy points per game and on the fringe of streaming status this week. Otton has a 15.2% target share with 34.3 receiving yards per game, 1.17 yards per route run, and a 14.4% first-read share. He has only three red zone targets and a deep target this season. New Orleans is 15th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends and has given up the 14th-most fantasy points per game to the position. With the Bucs’ other receiving weapons getting healthier by the week, Otton is fading into the background. I would look to other streaming options this week, but if you’re forced to plug him in a deep league for Week 14, I get it.
Since Week 10, Loveland has had one TE1 weekly finish (TE3). During his last four games, Loveland has had a 54.8% route share with a 13.7% target share, 43 receiving yards per game, 2.02 yards per route run, and a 14.9% first-read share. In those four games, he has had two red zone targets and zero deep targets. Green Bay has held tight ends to the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game. Loveland is a streaming option best left on the bench this week.
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