Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. It’s been a good start to the year. The holidays are among us, the NBA Cup Championship game is tomorrow and the season can really take off. What’s better than this?
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. There are four or five games tonight, depending on your preferred sit,e which doesn’t offer the most flexibility, but we can get creative. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $12,700
- FanDuel: $12,800
Do I really have to go into much detail here? It’s Nikola Jokic. Originally, I was hesitant to recommend him because Houston’s defense is solid. The Rockets rank second in defensive rating and are only better over their last 10 games while allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing centers. Still, it’s Jokic.
The Nuggets center has the highest ceiling of anyone on the slate today, and the Nuggets get Houston at home, where Jokic has averaged 71 fantasy points a game. He can go well below that and still cover 5X value. The total is also a comparable 237 points today, second-highest on the slate, so points are expected. Don’t be scared to roster Jokic today despite the red opponent rank.
- DraftKings: $9,700
- FanDuel: $9,800
I don’t feel like Jyalen Brown has received enough love for the way he’s been playing. Yes, he didn’t exactly go off in his last game against Milwaukee, but his recent stats otherwise are hard to beat. In his last eight games, the Boston forward has averaged 55 fantasy points per game with a 37% usage rate.
Detroit is a big pace-up spot for the slow Celtics, and their defense has dropped from third on the season to 11th in their last 11 games, so Boston is getting them at the right time. With some rest after Thursday’s loss and coming home in what should be a big game, I’m expecting a big performance from Brown. I also like Payton Pritchard tonight.
- DraftKings: $9,000
- FanDuel: $9,100
If you want to save a little bit of money and go after a player with lower rostership, target Scottie Barnes. I’m not sure what’s in the water up North, but after consistent performances, Barnes has returned two sub-30 fantasy point performances in his last three games after only having one such game in the entire season beforehand.
I am confident in him returning to the mean, especially against the fastest-paced team in the league in the Miami Heat. Barnes has averaged 36 minutes a night in his last two weeks of play with a 24% usage clip. The opportunity will be plentiful with the additional possessions, and the Heat have allowed the seventh-most points to opposing forwards this year, which is worse than the Jazz.
I prefer Barnes in GPPs because his rostership might take a hit based on early projections and recency bias.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $9,300
- FanDuel: $10,100
A lot of today’s centers are in my player pool, and Alperen Sengun is up there as one of the better plays among them. In 20 games, the Rockets big man has scored fewer than 39 fantasy points twice. That’s consistency. It’s not like you’re exactly saving money with him, but on a small slate, a near guaranteed 40-point performance is worth it at a sub-$10,000 price tag. Sengun is not a terrible GPP play, but he’s a better cash game play because of his rostership and alternate ceiling potentials from the other centers who aren’t getting as much love on this slate.
Let’s keep it short with other center options. Anthony Davis, if he plays, is an interesting option against Utah. He’s inconsistent, but that means his rostership will be low. Bam Adebayo is a name to throw in here, too, along with Neemias Queta, who is a great value option at center.
- DraftKings: $7,200
- FanDuel: $8,000
I’m going to say this might be the game we see Cooper… plant his Flagg. Bad pun aside, we’ve yet to see a 50+ point performance out of the first overall pick, but he’s gone over 40 DraftKings points in four out of his last seven games.
Flagg is getting more minutes, getting more usage and is going against quite possibly the friendliest fantasy opponent you can ask for. His price tag hasn’t moved much, and with a 50-fantasy-point performance loading, that’s great value. Especially if Anthony Davis and Daniel Gafford are out tonight, you might really see a boom performance for Flagg.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $10,700
- FanDuel: $10,600
It feels like Cade Cunningham is consistently under-rostered, and it doesn’t seem like tonight will be any different. With his five-figure price tag and coming off a dud game with 34 fantasy points, I see why people might move off him. Still with a 2-point spread tonight in Boston, I’m going right back to Cunningham and his 31% usage rate.
Sure, we’ve seen a 96 DraftKings point performance out of the Oklahoma State product; obviously, that would be nice. But we’ve seen five additional 60+ point performances as well. Boston is slow, which doesn’t help, but their defense ranks in the bottom third of the league. A close game can lead to a few extra minutes and looks that can put Cunningham over the top as a high-leverage play.
- DraftKings: $5,500
- FanDuel: $5,300
It doesn’t seem like anyone can agree on Cam Johnson’s positioning, with him listed as a shooting guard on DraftKings and a pure forward on FanDuel, but the point stands that he’s a solid value option tonight who won’t see a high rostership.
Going against Houston is exactly why Johnson makes for a GPP play tonight because it doesn’t seem like he will get as much rostership as he should. Right now, he’s around 15%, but he’s shown his capacity for getting to 40 fantasy points. He might make getting to Jokic easier with his price tag, and he’s consistently been playing 33+ minutes while taking more shots.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,200
- FanDuel: $5,000
For anyone facing Utah, it’s easy to line up some value options. The Jazz defense ranks dead last over their last 10 games, with the second-highest pace of play. They are arguably the friendliest fantasy lineup you could ask for right now.
Brandon Williams won’t get the start, but he’ll play 25 or so minutes and has averaged 26 fantasy points a game in his last three matchups, with one of those coming against Oklahoma City. There aren’t too many value options to choose from, so I expect a similar return on investment (ROI) tonight — around 26+ fantasy points to offer you some solid value.
On the other side of the ball, Kyle Filipowski is a clear value at center with his sub-$6,000 price tag, who projects for 30 minutes played. In a game with a 240 total, Ace Bailey, Ryan Nembhard and Isaiah Collier are all reasonable value options.
- DraftKings: $5,100
- FanDuel: $6,200
Obviously, Ausar Thompson is a friendlier option on DraftKings, so if you’re a FanDuel truther, you might want to skip this one. The Detroit small forward is the cheapest he’s been all season, and that’s exactly when I’m buying stock.
Thompson has averaged nearly 28 fantasy points per game, and I expect him to reach his average (at least) again today with his usage and minutes staying where they are. I’d lean more toward playing him in cash games than GPPs just because the Celtics’ slow pace might cap upside with a low possession rate, but his consistency is enough to make him a solid option tonight.
