Welcome to the Thursday DFS slate. It’s been a good start to the season as we are already a quarter into the NBA season. Crazy how fast time flies. The holidays are among us, which is when the season really takes off, and there’s nothing better.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. There are four games tonight, so you’ll have to get a bit creative with the options at hand. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
Nikola Jokic (C – DEN)
- DraftKings: $12,900
- FanDuel: $12,800
Does anything really need to be said about Nikola Jokic at this point? He consistently has the highest ceiling on any slate and is averaging 67 DraftKings points per game. It also helps that Sacramento is one of the friendliest matchups fantasy-wise, especially against opposing centers.
I would be shocked if Jokic doesn’t score 60 points. My only concerns are his rostership being too high and how the shortened slate limits value options with the spend up, but I’m going out of my way to roster Jokic tonight.
Jaylen Brown (SF, SG – BOS)
- DraftKings: $9,900
- FanDuel: $9,700
After missing a game with an injury, I was curious to see how Jaylen Brown would return to action. Turns out he didn’t even miss a beat with consecutive 50+ point outings. With the injuries Boston faced to start the year, Brown has really dominated the court with a 36% usage rate and averaging 47 DraftKings points.
Against this Milwaukee lineup with a bottom-10 defense and no Giannis Antetokounmpo, I fully expect the guard-forward to once again score 50 points, as he has in seven straight games. I prefer Brown in cash lineups to GPPs, but he can be rostered in both.
Deni Avdija (PG, SF, PF – POR)
- DraftKings: $9,700
- FanDuel: $9,600
I usually try to be more interesting with my core plays as these are essentially the three most expensive plays on the slate and you’ll find they are consistently the top three in projected scoring across the board, but that’s how the dominoes fall sometimes.
With an implied team total around 122 against one of the worst teams in the NBA, it’s hard not to hammer Portland players tonight. Deni Avdija has been playing over 35 minutes a night consistently for the past couple of weeks and sees a 28% usage rate. He gets a bit of a DraftKings boost with his guard-forward eligibility and has shown his capacity for 70+ point performances. While I prefer him in GPPs, he’s an option in cash games, too.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
Jamal Murray (PG, SG – DEN)
- DraftKings: $8,900
- FanDuel: $9,000
To pair with Nikola Jokic in Denver, I’m going with Jamal Murray. To start, the Denver guard hasn’t scored fewer than 30 fantasy points in nine straight games. Sacramento is a big pace-up spot for the Nuggets and allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing guards.
Murray’s usage has stayed consistent at 29% and has gone up. He’s getting more and more expensive every day, but that’s because he’s playing well and putting up points. It’ll be tough to pair him with the aforementioned options, but we’ll get to some value options that will help you stay under the salary cap.
Kevin Porter Jr. (PG – MIL)
- DraftKings: $7,600
- FanDuel: $8,500
I will say this is more of a DraftKings play, but with no Giannis Antetokounmpo, somebody has to score for Milwaukee. My go-to will be Kevin Porter Jr. In his last five games back from injury, the Bucks guard has averaged 46 points, and I only expect that to continue increasing with additional minutes given the current rotation for Milwaukee. Boston is a tougher opponent to cap any ceiling, but the pure opportunity will give Porter a high floor here.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
James Harden (PG, SG – LAC)
- DraftKings: $9,000
- FanDuel: $9,400
I’m mostly avoiding the Clippers-Rockets game, and early rostership projections appear others are as well. The Houston defense is second only to Oklahoma City and has limited opposing guards to second second-lowest scoring numbers so far this year.
That’s why I think James Harden makes for a solid alternative option tonight to go against the grain. Harden will have his 16-point outings, but he also has shown a ceiling of 87 DraftKings points. While that will be hard to achieve tonight, Harden is a bit cheaper than his $10,000 salary peak. For deeper-field GPPs, don’t be afraid to sprinkle in some Harden.
Russell Westbrook (PG – SAC)
- DraftKings: $8,000
- FanDuel: $7,800
I advised rostering Russell Westbrook in GPPs last time out, and he put up 70 points on Indiana. That’s the kind of ceiling we’ve seen from him. If there’s anyone who plays with an emotional chip on his shoulder, it’s Westbrook.
Playing against his former team might just give him that extra edge, and he tallied 51 fantasy points last time out against Denver. I don’t imagine him getting to 70 again, and he has additional rostership from last time out, but this is an obvious ceiling play for GPPs.
Jerami Grant (SF, PF – POR)
- DraftKings: $6,300
- FanDuel: $6,700
For a bit of a cheaper GPP option, I suggest Jerami Grant. The Trail Blazers forward has the capacity for 50-point outings and gets one of the friendliest fantasy matchups. The Pelicans allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing forwards and rank second-to-last in defensive metrics.
This is a pace-down spot for Portland, but the Pelicans still play at a top-half-of-league rate, so the opportunity will be there. The only question is rotation, which is why this feels like a bit of a dart throw, but Grant has been playing over 30 minutes a night consistently for the last 10 or so games. There are clear paths to 50 points for Grant.
NBA DFS Value Plays
Malik Monk (PG, SG – SAC)
- DraftKings: $4,800
- FanDuel: $5,300
With no Zach LaVine and no Dennis Schroder, whoever ends up starting at shooting guard tonight for Sacramento lines up to be the best value play on tonight’s slate. My guess is it will be Malik Monk.
Monk averages only 23 minutes a night, but he’s scoring 22 fantasy points per game. If he plays closer to 31-34 minutes, you can do the math for where he projects around a fantasy point per minute of play. Of course, monitor the news because there’s a chance a cheaper Keon Ellis start. Either way, they both line up to be solid values tonight.
Neemias Queta (C – BOS)
- DraftKings: $5,300
- FanDuel: $5,400
If you’re looking to spend down at center tonight, consider Neemias Queta. Again, Milwaukee’s defense is struggling and Boston is nearly a 10-point favorite, so I expect them to handle the Bucks. It’s a lower total due to pacing, but Queta should be more efficient down low across his 30 or so minutes, and the additional projected playing time is promising.
Queta won’t break the bank, and his low usage rate caps him a bit, but he consistently returns 5X on investment if you want a value play.
