Merry Christmas and welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. Hopefully, a big DFS win is on your wishlist because I know it’s on mine. We have been going strong so far this year with some close calls that would have been a bit nicer if some things had gone our ways but can’t complain. Any season in the green is good, and that’s where we are right now.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money, especially on a day where the games are so spread out, so you have a lot more information when late swapping your lineups. We have a five-game slate on Christmas Day, so you might have to get a little creative. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $10,500
- FanDuel: $11,400
If you’ve followed me at all this year, I’m sure you knew this one was coming. With the San Antonio Spurs taking down the Thunder for the second time on Tuesday this season, I believe if there’s any game Oklahoma City will get up for, it’s this one. Beyond that, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is just plain good.
Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to have a game below 39 fantasy points, and after a bit of a dud last time out, he’s due for a bounce back, which we’ve seen consistently from him this year. Playing at home where the Thunder are undefeated, Gilgeous-Alexander gets a boost in production, and given all the injuries the team faces, his usage and playing time have increased.
The total isn’t crazy, but the ceiling and floor are both high for Gilgeous-Alexander to make a solid anchor point in your lineup. Especially considering the opportunity cost at point guard (assuming no Luka Doncic), the Thunder guard is a clear go-to and will be chalky on today’s slate.
- DraftKings: $8,600
- FanDuel: $8,700
Once again, I can’t imagine I’m re-inventing the wheel here advising two of the most well-known players on today’s slate, but Karl Anthony-Towns is coming off a game where he balled out against one of the toughest frontcourt defenses and now faces the Cavaliers with the highest implied team total on the slate.
That’s pretty nice for a player with a 27% usage rate who should see the floor for around 33 minutes tonight. I don’t expect him to get 60+ DraftKings points again. OG Anunoby should be back healthy tonight, but with Evan Mobley questionable, New York returning home and the low price for a potential ceiling, everything is lining up for Towns being one of the best plays of the day.
- DraftKings: $9,300
- FanDuel: $9,000
I am suggesting LeBron James with the assumption that Luka Doncic misses this game or, at the very least, is limited. Given that fact, James should take over in usage rate above the 32% he already is at in his last five games.
James has also been surprisingly consistent, scoring over 50 fantasy points in four straight outings. His rostership isn’t crazy right now, but I do expect it to increase throughout the day because Christmas will bring more casuals who want to roster the best player of all time. With that said, I prefer James in cash games, but his ceiling is there for GPPs as well.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $7,900
- FanDuel: $8,400
With Houston playing at the third-slowest pace of play in the NBA, it’s hard to depend on any one player for consistency on the fantasy streets. Amen Thompson has accomplished that. Despite being priced below $8,000 on DraftKings, Thompson has only gone under 29 fantasy points once all season.
The Houston guard averages 37 minutes a night and surpasses 40 frequently. The Lakers are a pace-up spot, most teams are, and Los Angeles ranks 24th in defensive efficiency. Thompson and Co. should get plenty of positive looks with their third-ranked offensive metrics. He may be a bit limited in ceiling, going over 50 fantasy points twice all season, but his floor is high, making him a good cash play.
- DraftKings: $8,800
- FanDuel: $7,600
It may sound ridiculous, but few players have been as consistent as Julius Randle this year. His absolute floor so far is 27.5 points, and he’s only gone below 30 in two outings all season.
Denver’s defense is subpar, and with a game total of 240 points, there will be plenty of points to go around. Especially considering Jaden McDaniels is questionable, Randle might get a bump to his already high 27% usage rate.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $12,500
- FanDuel: $12,600
Once again, I can’t imagine I’m reinventing the wheel here with typing up an incredibly popular play, but Nikola Jokic will be severely underowned. When that’s the case, he’s an easy GPP play. Any slate Jokic is on, no one will have a higher ceiling. His price has gotten a little out of hand, despite this being a lower price than where he was a month ago, but the opportunity cost is too high to fade Jokic.
In the last 15 games, no team has allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing centers than the Minnesota Timberwolves. But the Knicks and Karl-Anthony Towns showed that the Timberwolves aren’t unstoppable. Jokic can get beyond 80 if he wants, and even after a slow start on Tuesday, he still managed nearly 70 fantasy points. I think there are better options given the price tag, but I’ll be sure to sprinkle Jokic in lineups.
- DraftKings: $7,300
- FanDuel: $8,600
The price tag alone should show you how off DraftKings is on Cooper Flagg, but given the matchup, I think people might be scared off him. It’s not like he will be low-rostered on DraftKings, coming in around 15% in early projections, but he’s still lower-rostered than he should be.
The rookie has averaged just shy of 40 fantasy points a game this season. In his last five matchups, that number jumps to 50 fantasy points with two 60+ point performances. The last time I wrote up Flagg as a GPP play, he went off for 64 fantasy points against Utah. Golden State is stingy against opposing forwards, and this is the lowest total on the slate, but Flagg still makes for a fine large-field GPP play, especially on DraftKings.
- DraftKings: $8,900
- FanDuel: $9,200
On a five-game slate, you usually see rostership consolidate across the board. As of now, it looks like Steph Curry is well projected to land in single-digit rostership, which is way too low against the Dallas Mavericks. Curry has had his ups and downs, but in his last 12 games, he’s gone over 60 fantasy points three different times.
In their last 15 games, Dallas has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing guards, and Curry has shown his ability to step up for big games. The Warriors are heavy favorites, but Dallas is starting to come into their own. Curry’s ability to land in an optimal lineup is much higher than his rostership currently sits.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,000
- FanDuel: $4,200
This basically is a coin flip between Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown, whoever you’re more drawn to. Hardaway should start, but there’s an equal chance that Brown plays as many minutes and scores as many fantasy points.
Without Cam Johnson in the lineup, it’s easy to see why there is value in a starter priced at $4,000 who will play around 30 minutes. Hardaway is also coming off consecutive 30-point outings, so I lean his way over Brown. However, if Hardaway ends up garnering all the rostership, don’t be afraid to make a late pivot to Brown in deeper contests.
- DraftKings: $4,600
- FanDuel: $5,100
Again, anytime you have someone playing starter minutes at sub-$5,000, it’s an easy decision for a value play. Quinten Post hasn’t exactly been going crazy, but he’s coming off a 31 DraftKings point performance and has been playing 25+ minutes in three straight games. Not too shabby.
Obviously, there are plenty of center options to choose from, but if you’re looking to punt the position and pay up elsewhere, Post is a great option.
- DraftKings: $4,000
- FanDuel: $4,300
Sam Merrill will be highly rostered after being slotted into the starting lineup and staying at such a low price. Merrill is coming off a 44 fantasy point outing and has the chance to run that back again on Thursday.
Given his guard-forward status, I imagine Merrill will be one of the highest-rostered players on the slate with his value. He’s scored over 30 fantasy points in two of the last three games. Even if he gets to 20 fantasy points, that’s 5X value.
