We’re still in the middle of MLB free agency, which has fallen to a snail’s pace, with several top options still on the board, including Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. However, that doesn’t mean it’s too early for fantasy baseball prep. Drafting early is a great way to get ahead of the market.
That’s where this article comes into play. On this page, I’m going to highlight five fantasy baseball busts to avoid. We’ll be using National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP) because that’s the most active platform right now. The focus is on Draft Champions leagues since December 21st.
Without further ado, find out which five fantasy baseball busts to avoid for the 2026 season.
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Research & Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Average Draft Position (ADP)
- Fantasy Baseball News
Fantasy Baseball Busts to Avoid (2026)
Each player listed below is a potential bust because of their high price tags. This doesn’t mean you should fully avoid them. If they fall well past their fantasy baseball ADP, you can make the move. But given their team context and/or injury history, their current ADP is too rich.
Junior Caminero (3B – TB) | 13.0 NFBC ADP
Junior Caminero is coming off a spectacular season with the Rays, where he slashed .264/.311/.535 with 45 home runs in 653 plate appearances. However, that was a year where the Rays played in a Minor League bandbox — George M. Steinbrenner Field. This year, Tampa will be back at Tropicana Field, which is a much more pitcher-friendly environment.
We saw the impact of this ballpark in Caminero’s numbers last year. Just take a look at his splits:
- .313/.358/.595 at home
- .218/.266/.477 on the road
This doesn’t mean Caminero won’t be valuable this year. He has the kind of power that plays anywhere. However, the change in park factor is enough risk to make it difficult to see Caminero paying off at his current lofty price.
Hunter Greene (SP – CIN) | 43.2 NFBC ADP
Hunter Greene has electric stuff, coming off a season where he put up a 2.76 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 26 walks and 132 strikeouts in 107.2 innings. The problem is, now you’re forced to pay a premium for Greene.
Remember, this is a pitcher whose career high is 150.1 innings. We’ve consistently seen Greene miss some time due to injuries. On top of that, I don’t like to pay such a high price for a pitcher who is in one of the most hitter-friendly environments in Great American Ball Park.
As with Caminero, this is not a fade on the player, but on the price, given the situation.
Jacob deGrom (SP – TEX) | 47.0 NFBC ADP
Jacob deGrom delivered on expectations last year, registering a 2.97 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 37 walks and 185 strikeouts in 172.2 innings. While it was great to see this type of volume from deGrom, can you really trust him to do it again?
Additionally, we saw deGrom’s strikeout rate fall to 27.7%, which was his lowest since 2016. If deGrom goes 150 innings instead of 170+, would he be worth this fourth-round price tag? I’d rather have a pitcher with higher strikeout upside, like Cole Ragans.
In short, this is a fade on a veteran pitcher who has dealt with injuries throughout his career and has shown signs of declining stuff.
Bryce Harper (1B – PHI) | 58.6 NFBC ADP
Bryce Harper put up a 131 wRC+ last season, which was his lowest since 2019. Despite playing at first base, a position where hitters usually rack up RBI, Harper hasn’t produced 90+ RBI since 2019. Can we trust that to change in his age-33 season?
It’s also worth noting that Harper has reached 600+ plate appearances in just one of the last five seasons. If paying a relatively high price at first base, you should target safer volume. Wait a couple of rounds to take Vinnie Pasquantino, for example.
Rafael Devers (1B – SF) | 67.2 NFBC ADP
Rafael Devers slashed .236/.347/.460 with 20 home runs in 395 plate appearances once he was traded to the Giants last season. Playing in Oracle Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in MLB, is likely to continue to negatively impact his numbers.
Devers also struck out at a much higher rate (29.4%) once he went to San Francisco. That would have been the highest of his career if he had played in San Francisco for a full year.
Now entering his age-29 season and entrenched at first base with no third base eligibility, Devers is no longer an exciting asset. There’s a real risk he will hurt your batting average. Is the power worth it at an inflated price due to his track record?
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | SoundCloud | TuneIn
