6 Pitchers Who Will Beat Their ADP (2026 Fantasy Baseball)

Every fantasy baseball season has a handful of starting pitchers who feel mispriced from the jump. Sometimes it’s injury fatigue. Sometimes it’s role uncertainty. Other times, it’s simply the market lagging behind skills that are obvious if you dig a little deeper.

Early 2026 drafts are already showing those inefficiencies. Based on current ADP and the underlying profiles, these six starting pitchers stand out as arms who are very likely to outperform their current fantasy baseball ADP.

This is not about chasing last year’s ERA. It is about skills, usage trends, and situations that create profit. We dive into six pitchers who will beat their ADP in a recent fantasy baseball podcast.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Values: Pitchers

Here are six early undervalued starting pitchers in fantasy baseball drafts, based on ADP.

Kyle Bradish (BAL)

Bradish is being drafted more like a mid-rotation arm, but the ceiling says something very different. After returning from Tommy John surgery, he showed the hardest thing to regain: command. A sub-8 percent walk rate paired with elite strikeout production in his return is a massive green flag.

The Orioles lineup should be better in 2026, which matters for wins, and Bradish is now far enough removed from surgery to reasonably project growth, not maintenance. Betting on pitchers in Year 2 post-surgery has historically been a profitable fantasy strategy. Bradish fits that mold perfectly.

Nolan McLean (NYM)

McLean is still being drafted as if his breakout was a fluke. It was not.

Across his late-season run, McLean showed advanced command growth, elite pitch movement, and strikeout rates that immediately put him in a different tier from most young starters. The Mets appear to view him as a rotation anchor, even if they have not said it publicly.

His ADP suggests a backend starter. His skills suggest a potential top-20 arm with legitimate top-15 upside. That gap is exactly where fantasy leagues are won.

Cam Schlittler (NYY)

Yankees pitchers usually carry a premium. Schlittler does not, and that is surprising.

He struck out nearly 28 percent of hitters as a rookie while flashing swing-and-miss stuff that translated immediately from the minors. Yes, the walk rate needs refinement. That has been part of his profile at every level. The key is that his strikeout rate is strong enough to absorb it.

Drafted as an SP4 or SP5, Schlittler has a very real path to finishing as a top-30 starter, especially with the Yankees’ ability to support wins.

Nick Lodolo (CIN)

Lodolo’s 2025 season flew under the radar because the surface stats did not scream dominance. The underlying numbers tell a different story.

He limited hits, avoided walks, and handled his largest workload to date. The strikeout-to-walk ratio was elite, and the expected metrics backed up the ERA. Left-handed starters often take longer to fully stabilize, and Lodolo is now squarely in his prime years.

Being drafted outside the top 40 starting pitchers is aggressive market pessimism. A top-25 finish is well within reach.

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT)

Ashcraft is the classic deep-league value that turns into a mainstream hit by June.

He added velocity across his entire arsenal, owns multiple pitches with strong Stuff+ grades, and showed he could handle major league hitters. The fastball is not elite, but the overall pitch mix works, especially if he sticks as a full-time starter.

When a pitcher with this profile is going outside the top 100 starters, the downside is minimal and the upside is significant.

Ranger Suarez (BOS)

Suarez is the anti-trend pitcher. He does not light up radar guns. He does not rack up viral highlights. He just gets outs.

Elite command, strong ground-ball rates, and consistent workload make him extremely valuable in standard and quality start leagues. Moving to Boston should not scare fantasy managers as much as it does. He has handled tough divisions before.

Drafting him as an SP5 ignores the fact that he has been a reliable top-40 arm when healthy.

Takeaways

Kyle Bradish profiles as a potential SP1 being drafted like an SP2 or SP3
Nolan McLean has ace-level skills and one of the largest ADP gaps among young starters
Cam Schlittler offers strikeout upside with win potential at a discounted price
Nick Lodolo‘s command gains make him a strong breakout candidate in his prime years
Braxton Ashcraft is a low-risk, high-upside target in deeper formats and best ball
Ranger Suarez remains undervalued due to velocity bias despite elite command and consistency

If you are drafting early in 2026, these are the pitchers to target before the market corrects.