While the fantasy football season is in the rearview, there is plenty of real NFL football remaining. BettingPros will have you covered through the NFL Playoffs with game picks, player props predictions, and more! Here are our top NFL picks and predictions for Conference Championships: Rams vs. Seahawks.
NFL Conference Championships Picks & Predictions: Rams vs. Seahawks
Here are a few of our top picks from Andrew Erickson’s Betting Primer.
NFL Conference Championships Picks
Trends:
- Three of the last four games between the Rams and Seahawks at Lumen Field have gone to overtime.
- Anytime the total between the Rams-Seahawks has closed north of 42.5 points, the game has gone under in the last five matchups. At 42 points or lower, the game went over the total (one game went into overtime).
- As for the total, both defenses rank in the top five in the red zone.
- The Seahawks have their last eight games.
- The Rams have won 10 straight as favorites versus the Seahawks.
- Seattle is 9-2 straight up as a home favorite since 2024 (7-1 this season).
- Seven of the Rams’ last eight games have gone over the total points line.
- Seattle has won 12 straight as favorites.
- Seattle is 6-3 toward the over at home this season (50.4 points per game).
- Seattle is 3-0 ATS/SU after a bye week (7-3 ATS/8-2 SU with rest advantage since 2024).
- The Rams are 6-2 ATS with a rest disadvantage (5-3 SU). They are also 7-1 toward the over.
- The Rams have covered six straight in Seattle.
- Sam Darnold is 0-3 ATS versus the Rams as a favorite (1-2 SU).
- The Rams are 8-2 toward the over/under on the road this season.
- The Rams have the best record since 2023 as a road favorite (11-5 ATS/13-2 SU). They are 11-2 ATS versus all teams not named the Panthers.
- As a road underdog, the Rams are 7-5-1 ATS but 3-10 SU since 2023.
Overall:
For the third time this season, the Rams and Seahawks meet — and if the first two games taught us anything, it’s that familiarity breeds volatility. Divisional rivals don’t surprise each other, and by this point, there are no schematic secrets left. What changes are execution, health and who blinks first under championship pressure?
The two previous matchups have been decided by a combined three points. The average losing margin by these teams is fewer than four points.
Seattle earned home-field advantage, but the Rams arrive with the benefit of having already seen every adjustment, every coverage wrinkle, and every tendency this Seahawks staff can throw at them. When teams meet for a third time, betting angles shift away from raw power ratings and toward game-script leverage, coaching aggression and situational edges — especially late.
This is the kind of matchup that rewards bettors who understand how playoff rematches actually play out, not how the regular season looked on paper.
I’ve gone back and read my pre-game write-ups for both previous matchups.
Both times, I backed Seattle. And depending on the line, you might be 2-0 betting Seattle ATS versus Los Angeles this season.
But we have seen Sam Darnold play some of his worst football at times against the Chris Shula-led Rams’ defense. Darnold is 0-3 ATS versus the Rams as a favorite (1-2 SU). 1-3 SU in the last four matchups (three of which Darnold has been favored).
In the last three games versus the Rams, Darnold has been intercepted 7 times. His odds to throw an interception are -115 on Hard Rock Bet.
As I wrote before the second matchup on Thursday Night…
“Sam Darnold completed 29-of-44 attempts for 279 passing yards, but threw four interceptions in the Seahawks’ loss to the Rams back in Week 11. All four of Darnold’s interceptions came while he stood in the pocket with a time to throw of over 2.5 seconds, completing only 9-of-18 such throws for 68 yards. On throws over 10 air yards, Darnold completed just 3-of-12 attempts for 61 yards, including three of his four interceptions.”
Despite all of the turnovers in Week 11, the Seahawks still had a chance to beat the Rams back in Los Angeles, losing 21-19 (but covering the +3.5 spread).
In Darnold’s last two games against the Rams, he completed just 7-of-26 downfield passes for zero touchdowns and three interceptions, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Darnold would go on to help Seattle mount a comeback (although not cover), despite the Rams holding a 97% win probability in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks’ win probability was as low as 2.7% with 9:04 left, trailing 30-14 in their 38-37 overtime comeback win over the Rams in Week 16.
Darnold completed 22-of-23 passes for 270 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Rams in Week 16.
The Rams lost to the Seahawks despite having 581 total yards, zero sacks taken and recording three takeaways.
Rashid Shaheed recorded a 58-yard punt return touchdown in the fourth quarter to cut a 16-point deficit in half.
Special teams have been one of the Rams’ Achilles heels this season, and will definitely be an X-factor in this game.
But all things considered, the Rams should probably be 2-0 against Seattle. It might actually be a good thing from the Rams’ perspective, considering how difficult it can be to beat a divisional rival thrice in the same season.
Erickson’s Pick: Game Total Under 47.5 Points (Lean Rams +2.5)
Check out the full Betting Primer for Rams vs. Seahawks
NFL Conference Championships Player Props & Bets
Pat Fitzmaurice shares one of his favorite NFL player props for this week’s game.
Colby Parkinson Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
The Seattle defense has been tough on wide receivers this season, but tight ends have been their Achilles’ heel. During the regular season, the Seahawks allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers but the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Strangely, Parkinson had two of his least productive games of the last three months against the Seahawks. He had two catches for 14 yards against Seattle in Week 11 (although he did score a touchdown in that game), and two catches for 21 yards against the Seahawks in Week 16.
Still, Parkinson has beaten this number in four consecutive games and in eight of his last nine. Over his last nine contests, Parkinson has averaged 5.4 targets, 3.7 catches, and 41.7 receiving yards per game.
Smash the Over.
And check out all of Fitz’s NFL player props for Rams vs. Seahawks
Here are even more of our favorite NFL player props via our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
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