The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Divisional Round NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
The Rams/Bears matchup is one of two games with potential for snow and will be extremely cold. However, it’s the only matchup of the weekend that is extremely pass-friendly on both sides of the ball and has the highest point total on the slate. Chicago’s defense was top two in most points allowed to quarterbacks and receivers this season. While their comeback victory against the Packers was impressive, the 300-plus passing yards and four passing touchdowns allowed to Jordan Love were not. Stafford has the most expensive and popular pass catchers on the slate. However, at this point, it’s less about getting different and more about being accurate.
The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Divisional Round NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
The Rams/Bears matchup is one of two games with potential for snow and will be extremely cold. However, it’s the only matchup of the weekend that is extremely pass-friendly on both sides of the ball and has the highest point total on the slate. Chicago’s defense was top two in most points allowed to quarterbacks and receivers this season. While their comeback victory against the Packers was impressive, the 300-plus passing yards and four passing touchdowns allowed to Jordan Love were not. Stafford has the most expensive and popular pass catchers on the slate. However, at this point, it’s less about getting different and more about being accurate.
Wild Card Weekend saw Williams post his highest passing yardage of the entire season at 361. It was a bit messy, but he can carry that volume directly into this matchup against the Rams, a team that absolutely forces extreme volume through the air. Williams’ volume is inconsistent because the Bears often rely heavily on the running backs. However, the Rams can stifle backs and given the likelihood of Stafford’s pushing volume, the Bears will have to answer back through the pass.
Additional Considerations
Running Backs
RJ Harvey (RB – DEN) vs. BUF | DraftKings: $6,200/FanDuel: $6,900*
While he’s crept up to the fourth-highest-priced back on the slate, he’s still a strong play for his value per projections and is the only true lead back who also has an excellent matchup this weekend. We targeted the Bills’ run defense last week. Their strong finish to the season was an illusion, more so related to weather and circumstances. Their real run defense showed up in Wild Card Weekend, where they allowed over 100 yards to the combination of Travis Etienne Jr. and Bhayshul Tuten, giving up an average of 8.4 yards per carry to the two backs, plus excellent receiving work to Etienne. Harvey fits the same archetype as Etienne and could easily be the top performer of the week.
Despite the difficult matchup against last week, Marks had 19 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown. On paper, the Patriots’ defense is extremely difficult for opposing running backs. However, much of that success came in the first half of the season. Their defense struggled to close out the season and gave up multiple hundred-plus yard performances to opposing backs, including one of Breece Hall‘s best performances of the season. The Texans will likely lean on the ground game again, and Marks is extremely well priced for a back very capable of 20+ carries.
Yes, I’m cheating and recommending both Seattle backs. They’ll take different paths to get there, but they offer the same floor and ceiling, and there’s only a $200 pricing difference between them. We just saw them against San Francisco in Week 18, and both had fantastic performances. Because they offer the combination of the best matchup of the week plus the lowest prices of “starting” running backs, they’re both viable options. If I have to lean one way, I do give a slight edge toward Walker for the ability to get the 100-yard bonus. However, I recommend sprinkling one back in your lineups and varying.
Additional Considerations
Wide Receivers
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR) @ CHI | DraftKings: $9,000/FanDuel: $9,800*
It’s possible to get both Rams receivers in the same lineup, stacked with Stafford, even though Stafford is the second most expensive quarterback on the slate, with Nacua as the most expensive receiver and Adams as the fourth most expensive (third on FanDuel). Nacua is essentially a must-play on his own regardless of stacking. Despite the popularity, it’s extremely difficult to fade him given the level of upside he has. While you can cash without him, the optimal lineup is extremely difficult to achieve. While it’s possible that Nacua underperforms and Adams becomes optimal, I would only use that strategy sparingly as a contrarian play.
While the Rams have been able to hold quarterbacks in check from a fantasy perspective by creating turnovers, they’re consistently a volume-friendly matchup for opposing receivers. The best matchup in their secondary has been Quentin Lake, and that matchup should favor Luther Burden. DJ Moore had the stronger performance last week, as Burden underperformed with three receptions for 42 yards. However, Moore can be incredibly unreliable, and he is also dealing with a knee injury. Burden is the safer bet, and he also offers a high ceiling as well.
Pat Bryant (WR – DEN) vs. BUF| DraftKings: $3,900/FanDuel: $4,900
Use this sparingly, but I wanted to call it out specifically to explain the logic here. It’s a risky play. However, the Bills seem to be specifically vulnerable to players who run the majority of their snaps out of the slot. We saw it last week with Parker Washington. Christian Kirk and Jayden Higgins will be popular due to the likelihood of Nico Collins being out. Bryant has the most usage out of the slot for the Broncos and can be a contrarian play off of Kirk and Higgins at slightly lower pricing.
Additional Considerations
Tight Ends
Jake Tonges (TE – SF) @ SEA | DraftKings: $3,400/FanDuel: $5,800
Jake Tonges steps in as the TE1 for the 49ers with extremely reasonable pricing, specifically on DraftKings. Tonges has been incredibly reliable as a starter in place of Kittle. He had six starts in place of Kittle in the regular season; four of those starts had double-digit fantasy points. Three of those starts had a minimum of six receptions. He’s a strong red zone target as well, offering a solid floor and an excellent ceiling this week, making him by far the best value play on the slate. Seattle has been on the friendly side of matchups for tight ends.
Additional Considerations
D/ST
New England D/ST vs. HOU | DraftKings: $3,600/FanDuel: $4,700
While I do like Woody Marks this week, New England is still my top defense. Last week, we took a similar approach and didn’t shy away from an expensive defense, the Houston Texans, and it paid off. Again this week, the pricing difference in strong defenses isn’t enough to justify fading. I do like the Seahawks’ defense. However, the deciding factor for me is the potential for sloppy play from C.J. Stroud. I’m looking for the slate-breaking defense that could get a pick-six, and Stroud is my mark. The Seahawks are absolutely a safe play for double-digit fantasy points. However, the highest ceiling lies with the Patriots.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn