Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. We’re past the All-Star break and the playoffs are on the horizon. With the NFL in the rearview mirror, the NBA should take center stage, where hopefully DraftKings and FanDuel will push bigger contests for casuals to play.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
We have a solid seven-game slate tonight, so you shouldn’t have to get too crazy when differentiating your lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $9,600
- FanDuel: $10,100
It feels like it’s been forever since we’ve had a DFS slate to dive into. To start the slate today, it appears the clear spend-up option is Tyrese Maxey. The 76ers guard takes on Atlanta today at home in a game with a 237-point total.
With no Joel Embiid, Maxey’s minutes and already insane usage rate are going to stay as such. He’s projected right around 50 fantasy points and has the highest floor of any player tonight. Maxey will likely be between 30-40% rostered, and that number will get more specific as we get closer to lock, but it’s completely justified tonight.
- DraftKings: $10,400
- FanDuel: $11,500
On the other side of the ball in the same game, the only other option up top I really like is Jalen Johnson. Philadelphia has been worse than most people realize. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but their defense is fourth-worst in the league. They may pace down the Hawks, but Johnson has been on an extended heater, going over 59 fantasy points in five straight games. He doesn’t have any reason to slow down soon.
You can see how FanDuel has inflated his price, but DraftKings has yet to catch up, and I don’t expect it to stop anytime soon. Johnson should get his fill against a weekend 76ers defense, and I will be overweight on the Hawks forward this evening.
- DraftKings: $7,300
- FanDuel: $7,100
Can’t say I expected to see Andrew Nembhard in my core plays this season, but that’s the NBA for you. This play comes down to opportunity and opponent. Half of the Pacers team is hurt. It feels like an exaggeration, but that’s basically the case with Aaron Nesmith, T.J. McConnell and the frontcourt options missing tonight. It also helps that the Pacers are facing the Wizards.
No team this year has allowed more fantasy points per game than Washington. Even looking more recently, the Wizards rank 28th defensively over their last 15 games while maintaining their top-10 pace of play. While I trust this play more in my cash lineups, we’ve seen the 50+ point DK performances by the Indiana guard, going over that benchmark in two of his last six games. Tonight is the perfect storm to put up such numbers again, where Nembhard will likely get additional run and usage.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $6,300
- FanDuel: $6,500
With Chicago having a fire sale at the trade deadline, I have a feeling we are going to target the new-look Bulls a lot in fantasy, and tonight is no exception. Over their last 10 games, the Bulls’ defense ranks second-to-last while playing at the fourth-fastest pace.
The Duke product can clear 34 fantasy points without issue and has a 90th percentile output closer to 45. But in cash games, he feels safe after putting up over 27 fantasy points in seven straight games and 13 of his last 14 matchups.
- DraftKings: $6,500
- FanDuel: $6,500
You’ll see it’s a bit of common practice for me to target the Atlanta-Philly game tonight, but it features the highest total on the slate, and usage will be condensed. The former Baylor star has averaged around 35 minutes a night this year, and in a pace-up spot, it’s hard to ask for a better floor out there.
This is one of the cheaper price tags we’ve seen on Edgecombe this season, so it’s a bit of a stock buyback, too, and this is the perfect opportunity to do so.
- DraftKings: $5,200
- FanDuel: $5,500
As cash plays go, this isn’t the safest player I’ve ever recommended. But with the handful of injured players missing for Indiana, I’m OK with rostering Jay Huff. Without Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac and perhaps Micah Potter, this is a clear play for Huff.
The Pacers big man has averaged 28 fantasy points over his last three games, where he’s played nearly as many minutes a night. Right around 28 is where I project him, and he’s capable of so much more going against the Washington Wizards. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing centers than the Wizards.
Among the three options in this section, I’d be most OK with Huff in GPPs to go along with his rostership.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $10,500
- FanDuel: $11,600
I don’t think there’s ever been a clearer GPP play than Victor Wembanyama tonight. His rostership might creep up as we get closer to lock, but right now, it’s below 8%, which is criminal. That is a result of the plethora of cheap center plays we have tonight, which we’ll get to, but it’s hard to argue that anyone has a higher ceiling than the Spurs big man tonight.
Phoenix isn’t the friendliest of opponents, ranking in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing centers, but I think we can say that Wembanyama is matchup-proof to an extent. He has gone over 55 fantasy points in seven of his last 13 games. While that scoring might not break the slate, it’s hard to find clear points elsewhere tonight.
I expect there’s still more to be seen for Wembanyama’s playing time and usage, so I’m buying stock and will definitely be overweight on his current projected rostership.
- DraftKings: $9,100
- FanDuel: $9,700
Against Chicago, anyone is viable. They’ve really fallen off a cliff defensively after the trade deadline, and the tank is full on. I honestly think the Jazz would be favored on a neutral court right now. Scottie Barnes comes in under 10% rosteted, despite playing around 34 minutes a night with a 25% usage rate.
That’s like gold against this Bulls team. Barnes has gone over 50 fantasy points twice in his last four efforts, with a 65-burger in there as well. I don’t expect him to see that kind of production, but it’s the 90th percentile effort we’re looking for here, and he can easily return such value against the Bulls.
- DraftKings: $8,900
- FanDuel: $9,100
In the Knicks-Pistons game, the rosters are littered with GPP plays. Whether it’s Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham or Karl-Anthony Towns. I don’t expect this game to garner a bunch of rostership with the 222-point total. Still, Brunson has shown his capacity to go nuclear, scoring over 60 points in two of his last five matchups, both at home.
Of course, he’s scored 10 and 27 points in that same time frame, so that’s why he’s in a GPP option because he is a riskier play. With the close spread, there is a solid chance for additional play and for the Villanova product to activate takeover mode. I will definitely be sprinkling him into my deep-field lineups.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,300
- FanDuel: $5,400
A general rule of thumb is that if a player has over a $1,000 price difference on either site, one of the sites is wrong and will likely be a solid play wherever he’s cheaper. Either way, I like Tristan Vukcevic tonight across the board. He is surprisingly efficient as a 1.30 fantasy points per minute player taking over the starting gig.
I expect around 25 minutes for the Washington big man tonight in a friendlier matchup. While Vukcevic is my preferred play, there are a lot of center options of value, including Paul Reed, Day’Ron Sharpe and Adem Bona. I prefer Vukcevic, but feel free to mix and match between them as they all project for relatively high rostership with a solid return on investment (ROI) based on their pricing.
- DraftKings: $4,000
- FanDuel: $4,600
We’ve seen it before when he was at $3,800, scoring a whopping 57 fantasy points, and we might see another ceiling output again from Dominick Barlow. I’m not expecting that kind of performance, but Tyrese Maxey can’t do all the work tonight.
The Hawks have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opponents across the board over their last 30 games and the second-most to power forwards in that same time span. This game features the highest total on the slate, so Barlow will have the additional run needed for a pay-day type performance.
Barlow will be relatively highly rostered. I’m projecting him to be the third-highest rostered player in the early run of projections, but I still love him tonight in cash and GPP lineups.
- DraftKings: $4,200
- FanDuel: $4,300
I’m once again going back to the 76ers well. Quentin Grimes is easily capable of getting to his seasonal average of 25 fantasy points tonight, which is right around where I project him.
Given the pace up spot and likely additional run, I can easily see him breaking 30. I will say to try and mix and match 76ers players because while they’re set up for success, it’s hard to imagine all of them having ceiling outputs.
