10 Pitchers Experts Avoid (2026 Fantasy Baseball)

When preparing for your fantasy baseball drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy baseball rankings compared to average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable players below.

2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice

RK	PLAYER NAME	TEAM	POS	BEST	WORST	AVG.	STD.DEV	ECR VS. ADP
53	Mason Miller	SD	RP1	29	151	58.1	18.2	-10
59	Edwin Diaz	LAD	RP2	28	187	61.4	24.2	-15
74	Andres Munoz	SEA	RP3	38	147	75.8	25.8	-18
76	Jhoan Duran	PHI	RP4	37	170	76.8	27.1	-15
78	Cade Smith	CLE	RP5	35	189	79.1	26.7	-12
93	Aroldis Chapman	BOS	RP6	55	203	98.8	24.2	-11
97	David Bednar	NYY	RP7	52	202	101.9	26.5	-13
100	Devin Williams	NYM	RP8	46	232	103.5	27.8	-6
109	Blake Snell	LAD	SP28	48	189	117	32.5	-13
113	Spencer Strider	ATL	SP30	63	195	118.3	34.9	-4

Experts prefer to wait on relievers and closers in general, especially in 12-team and 15-team formats. This is assuming traditional scoring, but in those general fantasy leagues they’d prefer to mine for saves later and address other positions early in the draft. This is reflected in the ECR vs. ADP for the top closers in baseball.

Blake Snell remains one of fantasy baseball’s most volatile aces. His 2025 season with Los Angeles featured a dominant 2.35 ERA and strong run prevention metrics, but it came in just 61.1 innings. Projections again favor strong ratios and well-above-average strikeout rates, though modest innings expectations cap his overall fantasy ceiling. Snell’s swing-and-miss stuff still plays at a Cy Young level when healthy, but his elevated walk rates continue to introduce WHIP volatility. He is a high-risk SP2 / ratio-boosting upside play, best suited for managers willing to absorb innings risk in exchange for elite per-inning production.

Spencer Strider’s 2025 was a clear step back from his 2022-23 dominance, with sharp declines in strikeout rate (24.3% from elite 36%+ levels), rising hard-hit rate (42.6%), and a career-worst 4.45 ERA that mirrored weaker underlying command. While velocity and bat-missing ability weren’t lost entirely, his reduced K/BB profile and elevated damage on contact capped his fantasy ceiling. The 2026 projections still view Strider as a high-strikeout arm, but no longer in a tier of his own, reflecting durability concerns and a thinner margin for error. A partial rebound in strikeouts could still make him a strong SP2 rather than the automatic ace he once was.

What is Fantasy Baseball?

Fantasy baseball is an online game where participants act as managers of virtual baseball teams based on real-life Major League Baseball (MLB) players. The performance of these players in actual games determines the results in the fantasy league. It’s a blend of skill, strategy, and a little bit of luck, akin to the real-world decisions team managers must make.

Basic Strategy for Fantasy Baseball Success

1. Understand Your League’s Format and Scoring

Before drafting your team, it’s essential to understand the scoring system and rules of your specific league, as this will influence your drafting and management strategy. Knowing whether you’re in a points-based, category-based, or head-to-head league will guide you in selecting players whose strengths align with the scoring system.

2. Drafting Your Team Wisely

A solid draft is the foundation of a successful season. Here are a few tips for the drafting phase:

Balanced Team: Ensure you have a balanced team with a mix of power hitters, average hitters, speedsters, starting pitchers, and relievers.
Position Scarcity: Be aware of the depth of talent at each position. Some positions, like shortstop, may have fewer high-quality players, making it beneficial to draft a top player at that position early.
High-Floor Players: Early in the draft, focus on players with a proven track record of consistency.
Upside Picks: In the later rounds, look for “upside” players. These are athletes who have the potential to outperform their draft position.

3. In-Season Management

Stay Active: Constantly look for ways to improve your team through waivers, trades, and free-agent pickups.
Mind the Matchups: Pay attention to player matchups, platoon splits, and ballparks. Starting a pitcher in a hitter-friendly park, for example, can be risky.
Injury Management: Stay on top of player injuries and have backups ready for your key players.