Fantasy baseball projections are useful tools. They establish baselines, identify regression candidates, and remove some emotional bias from the draft room.
But projections also miss on players every season. Understanding why fantasy baseball projections dislike these players is just as important as deciding whether to fade or buy the discount.
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Fantasy Baseball Projections Hate These Players
Here’s a closer look at the biggest projection skeptics for 2026 fantasy baseball drafts.
Christian Yelich (OF, DH – MIL)
Projection systems are clearly bracing for regression from Yelich.
ATC projects him for roughly 19 home runs, 16 steals, and a .258 average across about 135 games. That’s a sizable drop from last season’s production, where Yelich returned to fantasy relevance with strong power-speed numbers.
The hesitation largely comes from two factors: durability and batted-ball profile.
Yelich continues to hit the ball extremely hard and posts strong barrel rates. But his extremely low launch angle remains a concern. If he can’t elevate consistently, maintaining 25+ home run power becomes difficult.
Still, if he falls past his ADP range near pick 100, the upside profile remains intriguing for fantasy managers willing to gamble on health.
Story delivered one of the more surprising bounce-back seasons last year with a 25 HR / 31 SB campaign.
Projections, however, see clear regression coming. ATC expects something closer to 20 home runs, low-20s steals, and a .248 average.
That skepticism largely reflects Story’s recent injury history. From 2023 through 2025, he missed massive chunks of time before finally returning to form.
The key question: was last season a late-career renaissance or simply the final peak before decline?
At his current cost around pick 100, Story still offers appealing upside, but projections suggest the floor may be lower than fantasy managers expect.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF – CHC)
Few players generated more buzz than Crow-Armstrong after his breakout 30/30 season.
But projections are notably cautious.
ATC forecasts 23 HR, 33 SB, and a .246 average, which is solid but nowhere near elite outfield production. The concern is his extreme splits.
Crow-Armstrong struggled badly against left-handed pitching, hitting just .188 with a .594 OPS in those matchups. If those issues persist, pitchers may exploit the weakness more aggressively in 2026.
He still has game-changing speed and counting stat potential, but his current top-40 ADP makes the risk harder to justify.
Second base remains shallow, which keeps Albies relevant. But projections are not optimistic.
ATC projects 17 HR, 11 SB, and a .249 average, numbers that would make him a mid-tier option rather than a difference-maker.
The decline is supported by underlying trends. Albies’ hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and overall offensive quality have dropped over the past few seasons.
At age 29, the window for a rebound still exists. But projection models see more of the same declining production.
Rutschman was once expected to become a perennial top fantasy catcher. Instead, his offensive ceiling has remained relatively modest.
Projections estimate 17 HR, 64 RBI, and a .249 average, which makes him a decent but unspectacular fantasy catcher.
The profile still has positives. Rutschman rarely strikes out and maintains strong plate discipline. But the power breakout many expected has yet to arrive.
In single-catcher leagues, that makes him less appealing. In two-catcher formats, however, he still holds meaningful value.
Few young pitchers generate more excitement than Misiorowski, but projection systems remain cautious.
ATC projects 137 innings with a 4.06 ERA, strong strikeout totals but elevated walk numbers.
The concerns are easy to identify.
Misiorowski throws extremely hard, averaging near triple-digit velocity, but his control remains inconsistent. High walk rates and workload limitations could prevent him from delivering ace-level value.
The upside is massive. The volatility is equally real.
Strider is one of the most fascinating projection debates entering 2026 drafts.
ATC forecasts a 3.94 ERA over 156 innings, solid but far from the dominant ace fantasy managers remember.
The uncertainty stems from his recovery following internal brace surgery. Early spring outings showed reduced velocity, though recent starts suggest his fastball is climbing back toward the mid-90s.
Strider’s value ultimately hinges on one question:
Will the elite fastball-slider combination fully return?
If it does, projections may prove too conservative.
Projections remain skeptical about Alcantara returning to his Cy Young form.
ATC predicts a 4.16 ERA with modest strikeout totals, far from his peak production.
However, the second half of last season tells a different story. Alcantara dramatically improved after the All-Star break, showing better command and durability.
If that momentum carries into 2026, the projection models may be underestimating his rebound potential.
Horton is another young pitcher projections treat cautiously.
ATC expects 127 innings with a 3.91 ERA, respectable but not especially exciting.
What the projections may overlook is Horton’s late-season surge. Over his final stretch of starts last year, he allowed just seven earned runs across multiple outings, demonstrating the upside that has evaluators excited.
His strikeout numbers remain modest, but the pitch mix suggests potential growth.
Bello might be the player projections distrust the most on this list.
ATC projects a 4.24 ERA with limited strikeouts, reflecting concerns about his weak strikeout rate and mediocre underlying metrics.
Despite posting a respectable ERA last season, Bello’s advanced stats — including expected ERA and strikeout-minus-walk percentage — suggest regression risk.
Complicating matters further, Boston’s rotation depth could create pressure if younger pitchers outperform him early in the season.
What These Fantasy Baseball Projections Really Mean
Projection systems are not predictions of what will happen. They are estimates of the most likely outcome based on historical trends and statistical indicators.
Players who beat projections often fall into one of three categories:
- Breakout talents whose skill growth hasn’t fully surfaced yet
- Veterans who remain productive despite age concerns
- High-variance players with wide performance ranges
Many of the names on this list fit that exact profile.
That doesn’t mean you should ignore projections. It means you should understand why the models are skeptical before deciding whether to buy or fade the risk.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
- Christian Yelich still offers power-speed upside but carries durability and launch angle concerns.
- Trevor Story‘s bounce-back season may be difficult to repeat given his injury history.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s struggles vs lefties create real volatility despite 30/30 upside.
- Ozzie Albies‘ declining hard-contact metrics make his rebound less certain than fantasy managers hope.
- Adley Rutschman remains safe but may lack the elite offensive ceiling once expected.
- Jacob Misiorowski‘s elite velocity comes with workload and control concerns.
- Spencer Strider‘s value depends heavily on how his velocity returns after surgery.
- Sandy Alcantara‘s strong second half suggests a bounce-back may be coming.
- Cade Horton‘s late-season surge hints at more upside than projections suggest.
- Brayan Bello faces real regression risk due to weak strikeout and underlying metrics.
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