Justin Mason | Tue, Mar 10th 2026, 7:09am EDT

13 High-Risk/High-Reward Draft Picks: Pitchers (Fantasy Baseball)

There are different approaches to drafting pitchers in fantasy baseball. I tend to lean towards safer, less volatile profiles, but they often do not have the upside many crave. Especially if you are in a shallower format, you may want to shoot for more upside, even if that comes with a lower floor.

Below are some high-risk/high-reward pitchers I like for 2026. The average draft position (ADP) data referenced below is courtesy of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC).

High Risk/High Reward Fantasy Baseball Picks: Pitchers

Cole Ragans (SP – KC) | ADP: 56.02

Cole Ragans struggled with health and production last season, throwing just 61.2 innings with a 4.67 ERA. However, he had a 2.67 xERA and an unreal 38% strikeout rate. He has a career 29% strikeout rate and the skill set for a low 3.00 ERA if he can stay healthy, but that is a massive risk.

Nolan McLean (SP – NYM) | ADP: 102.80

Nolan McLean doesn’t have an injury risk, but he doesn’t have much of a track record either. The track record we do have is pretty amazing, though. He throws six different pitches and was amazing between Triple-A and the Majors last season.

The stuff is fantastic, but McLean can struggle with control; ultimately, the upside is worth the risk.

Cam Schlittler (SP – NYY) | ADP: 139.54

Cam Schlittler was fantastic last season, throwing 73 innings with a 2.96 ERA and a 27.6% strikeout rate. However, the underlying numbers are worrying.

Schlittler had a 4.11 xERA, and the walk rate was over 10%. He could be a bad WHIP pitcher, which has plagued him throughout the minor leagues. The upside is great in New York, but there is a fair amount of risk.

Zack Wheeler (SP – PHI) | ADP: 143.95

Zack Wheeler has been a top-five fantasy pitcher for a long time. However, he underwent thoracic outlet surgery this offseason, and there isn’t a great track record or sample sizes to know how he will perform when he returns.

Reports are good, but there is a chance Wheeler doesn’t throw many innings this year or is not the same pitcher he once was.

Bubba Chandler (SP – PIT) ADP: 164.19

Bubba Chandler was the top pitching prospect in baseball last season. He was called up in August and fared decently in the Majors, throwing 31.1 innings with a 4.02 ERA and a 25% strikeout rate.

The underlying numbers were better with a 3.09 SIERA and a 13.4% swinging strike rate. However, Chandler has struggled with walks at times in the minors and has issued 10 of them across six spring training innings so far.

MacKenzie Gore (SP – TEX) | ADP: 195.83

MacKenzie Gore has always been a risk/reward pitcher. The stuff is great, but he struggles with command and control as well as repeating his mechanics. However, Gore is moving to a much better ballpark and overall team, so he could benefit a lot from pitching in Texas.

Jack Leiter (SP – TEX) | ADP: 252.14

Speaking of Texas, Jack Leiter is a pitcher I love this year. He threw 151.2 innings with a 3.86 ERA and a 23% strikeout rate last season. Leiter has had even bigger strikeout rates in the minors. However, he struggles with walks and that often means higher walk rates, which puts him in a risky group.

Connelly Early (SP – BOS) | ADP: 252.17

Connelly Early has a ton of talent and was great in his short stint in the Majors last season. However, the Red Sox have a really deep rotation, and all signs point towards him starting the year in Triple-A.

However, Early should be up early in the season, and there is still a chance he forces his way into the rotation to start the season.

Logan Henderson (SP – MIL) | ADP: 295.08

Chad Patrick (SP – MIL) | ADP: 355.63

Kyle Harrison (SP, RP – MIL) | ADP: 491.27

I lumped these three together because they all pitch for the Milwaukee Brewers and have shown massive upside with strikeouts in the minors. They are all competing to make the rotation. Kyle Harrison, specifically, has looked fantastic this spring.

Grayson Rodriguez (SP – LAA) | ADP: 301.11

When Grayson Rodriguez was healthy, he was trending towards becoming a top-25 pitcher. At one time, he was the best pitching prospect in the minors. Injuries have derailed his career, but he has a new change of scenery in Los Angeles and is reportedly healthy.

We don’t know if Rodriguez will be the same pitcher he once was, but the price is cheap enough to find out.

Zebby Matthews (SP – MIN) | ADP: 316.64

There is a ton of strikeout upside and control in Zebby Matthews’ profile. Health and command are worrisome, though. With Mick Abel pitching great in spring training, Matthews may not even make the rotation. I still love the upside, but he may be someone you end up dropping early.

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