Josh Shepardson | Mon, Mar 16th 2026, 7:18am EDT

4 Mid-Round Pitchers to Target (2026 Fantasy Baseball)

The middle rounds of fantasy baseball drafts are filled with quality pitching options. For this article, pitchers with an average draft position (ADP) after 120 and before 228 are eligible for inclusion. That means any pitchers picked from round 11 through round 19 in 12-team leagues. The following four pitchers are enticing mid-round picks.

Mid-Round Pitchers to Target in Fantasy Baseball Drafts

Nick Lodolo (SP – CIN) | ADP: 128.6 (P49)

Nick Lodolo had an eye-catching rookie season in 2022, but he stumbled to a 5.11 ERA in 28 starts spanning 149.2 innings from 2023 through 2024. Lodolo’s underlying data suggests he was rather unlucky.

According to FanGraphs, Lodolo recorded the following numbers in those starts:

3.94 xERA
3.91 xFIP
3.70 SIERA
1.32 WHIP
7.1% walk rate
25.6% strikeout rate
12.1 SwStr%
29.6 CSW%
104 stuff+
98 location+
98 pitching+

It turned out Lodolo’s underlying data was onto something. He was fantastic last season, tallying the following statistics in 29 appearances (28 starts) spanning 156.2 innings:

9 wins
14 quality starts
2 complete games
1 shutout
3.33 ERA
3.50 xERA
3.66 xFIP
3.57 SIERA
1.08 WHIP
4.8% walk rate
24.3% strikeout rate
12.4 SwStr%
28.4 CSW%
102 stuff+
101 location+
100 pitching+

Lodolo’s walk rate was a career best, and his low rate of free passes and success as a whole were likely aided significantly by getting ahead in the count. Lodolo had a career-high 67.8% first-pitch strike rate (F-Strike%), besting his 67.3% F-Strike% in his encouraging rookie season. He had a 66% F-Strike% from 2023 through 2024.

Lodolo was the 28th-ranked pitcher in 2025 by our value-based ranking (VBR) metric. Even if he takes a step back from his brilliant 2025, which his underlying data doesn’t suggest he was particularly lucky, Lodolo can outperform his ADP this year.

Trevor Rogers (SP – BAL) | ADP: 149.8 (P62)

Trevor Rogers was lights out in 25 starts in 2021 after getting rocked in seven starts in his first taste of the Majors in 2020. Unfortunately, Rogers struggled after what appeared to be a breakout 2021 campaign until he had a second breakout for the Orioles last season.

Rogers’ failure to maintain his excellence after 2021 is a red flag. His pitch modeling last season, which included a 92 stuff+, 105 location+ and 98 pitching+, wasn’t special. Still, Rogers’ other numbers were stellar.

In 18 starts, the lefty spun the following stats in 109.2 innings:

9 wins
13 quality starts
1.81 ERA
3.40 xERA
3.64 xFIP
3.75 SIERA
0.90 WHIP
6.9% walk rate
24.3% strikeout rate
66% F-Strike% (career high; league average was 62%)
34.2 O-Swing% (31.5% league average)
12.5 SwStr%
27.9 CSW%

Rogers got ahead of hitters with a first-pitch strike at a career-high rate and 4% better than the league average last season. He also got batters to chase out of the strike zone at an above-average clip.

Obviously, Rogers’ sub-2.00 ERA was exceptionally lucky. Regardless, even if Rogers merely pitched to any of his ERA estimators from last season, he’d be a value where he’s being selected on average in drafts.

Bubba Chandler (SP – PIT) | ADP: 154.2 (P65)

Bubba Chandler is one of MLB’s top prospects. After last year’s cup of coffee, he’s retained his prospect eligibility. He’s the 15th-ranked prospect at Baseball America, 12th at Baseball Prospectus, 11th at MLB and 10th at FanGraphs.

The righty’s 4.02 ERA in seven appearances (four starts) for the Pirates was adequate, but it was also less impressive than his ERA estimators. Chandler recorded a 3.66 xERA, 3.20 xFIP and 3.09 SIERA.

Chandler also had a sterling 0.93 WHIP, 3.2% walk rate, 25% strikeout rate, 13.4 SwStr% and 28.9 CSW%. The 23-year-old righty also had tantalizing pitch modeling. Chandler had a 109 stuff+, 104 location+ and 115 pitching+ for the Pirates.

Chandler’s combination of prospect pedigree, rock-solid numbers in his debut and blistering pitch-modeling data is exciting and grounds for casting a dart in his direction.

Moreover, after pitching 131.1 innings last season, including his 100 innings in Triple-A, Chandler probably doesn’t face a cumbersome innings limit. Chandler’s Zeile consensus projection is 143.1 innings this year, and 150+ innings wouldn’t be an outrageous jump from last year’s total.

Joe Musgrove (SP – SD) | ADP: 223.8 (P92)

Joe Musgrove missed the entire 2025 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s 17 months removed from the surgery and threw 60 pitches in a March 4th exhibition start against Great Britain.

According to BrooksBaseball, Musgrove threw a four-seamer, sinker, change-up, slider, curve and cutter. His four-seamer’s average velocity was 94.23 miles per hour (MPH), slightly up from where it was in 2024.

While the veteran righty relies more on location, pitch sequencing and secondary offerings than his heater, it’s still encouraging that his fastball velocity hasn’t dipped following Tommy John surgery. Musgrove was solid if unspectacular while pitching through a damaged ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in 2024.

In 79 appearances (78 starts) for the Padres from 2021 through 2023, Musgrove ripped off the following stats:

31 wins
47 quality starts
3.05 ERA
3.51 xERA
3.59 xFIP
3.61 SIERA
1.09 WHIP
6.2% walk rate
25.6% strikeout rate
63.1 F-Strike%
11.8 SwStr%
30.5 CSW%
109 stuff+
100 location+
106 pitching+

It’s unwise to assume Musgrove can return to that level. Nevertheless, he’s only 33 years old, so perhaps that caliber of performance is still within his range of outcomes.

Musgrove can’t be counted on to pile up a ton of innings. He said:

“I don’t expect to make 180, 200 innings, but I expect to be able to take the ball consistently throughout the year and be productive.“

Still, Musgrove isn’t being drafted in a range that requires him to log 180+ quality innings to provide fantasy baseball teams with value. Gamers who can use more quality than quantity around Musgrove’s fantasy baseball ADP should take the plunge on the veteran righty.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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