5 High-Risk/High-Reward Draft Picks: Hitters (Fantasy Baseball)

There are several fantasy baseball players who prefer to play it safe, taking players who have proven to stay healthy and provide consistent numbers throughout their careers. This is especially the case in the early rounds. However, I like to take a different approach. If a player looks poised for a big year, I’ll take the plunge, even if they’re riskier.

On this page, we’re going to dive into some high-risk/high-reward hitters for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. Read on to find out which risky players I’m tolerating this season.

High Risk/High Reward Fantasy Baseball Picks: Hitters

Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF – ATL)

Ronald Acuna Jr. is considered to be a risky pick because he goes as high as fourth overall. Some players are hesitant to take a shot on Acuna because not only has he torn his ACL twice, but he’s also been limited to a combined 634 plate appearances in the last two seasons. But here’s the thing: He looks fully healthy right now. There are no lingering effects of his serious knee injury.

We saw Acuna address any concerns about his bat last year, when he homered 21 times in only 412 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics were terrific, as highlighted by a 15.7% barrel rate. While the speed dipped quite a bit, that was only because he was coming off the torn ACL. Now one year further removed from the injury, I’m betting that we see 40+ stolen bases once again. There’s a legit chance Acuna goes 40-40 this year. He’s been my biggest target in the first round.

Corbin Carroll (OF – ARI)

Corbin Carroll suffered a fractured right hamate bone earlier this spring, which caused his average draft position (ADP) to fall in early drafts. But reports have been positive, as Carroll has returned to action in spring training. Now, the counterpoint here would be that a hamate injury could impact a player’s power. There’s a chance this could cause Carroll to get off to a slow start.

However, I’m not too concerned about that because Carroll has game-breaking speed. If we see a dip in power due to the hamate injury, Carroll can make up for that by swiping more bags. After all, this is still a player with 50+ steal upside. I’ve been scooping up Carroll shares when he falls to the second round every single time. The upside is simply too good to pass up there.

Yordan Alvarez (OF, DH – HOU)

Yordan Alvarez has consistently dealt with injuries throughout his career, culminating in a 2025 season where he was limited to only 199 plate appearances. Add in the fact that Alvarez is only eligible at the utility spot in most formats, and you can see why some fantasy players are steering clear of the Astros slugger. But he’s been one of my favorite targets.

There’s a good chance Alvarez will get outfield eligibility at some point, as the Astros plan to play him in left field sometimes, which should be enough to get the 10 starts that we need. On top of that, he is one of the best pure hitters in baseball. There aren’t many hitters who can bat .300 and slug 40+ home runs like Alvarez. That’s the type of upside worth chasing.

Corey Seager (SS – TEX)

Corey Seager is similar to Yordan Alvarez in that he’s consistently dealt with injuries throughout his career, but the per-plate-appearance numbers remain intriguing. The veteran shortstop had only 445 plate appearances last year, but was still able to hit .271 with 21 homers. What I love about Seager is that he’s a great bet to be a batting average asset, hitting .270+ in six of his last seven seasons.

I understand that there’s heightened injury risk here, but Seager is available at a reasonable price, often falling outside of the top 100 in drafts. Buying in at a rock-bottom cost is exactly what you should do in fantasy baseball. Just look at Byron Buxton, who finally exploded last season when he was overlooked in drafts.

Munetaka Murakami (3B – CWS)

Munetaka Murakami is enticing because of his prodigious power, but fantasy baseball players are concerned with the batting average risk. The Japanese slugger had a strikeout rate above 28% in his last three seasons in Japan. However, we can’t overlook how he had a sub-23% strikeout rate from 2020-2022. The most recent sample is the most relevant, but that doesn’t mean that previous seasons should be ignored.

If Murakami can hit .230+, there’s 40+ home run upside here. After all, this is a hitter who slugged 56 homers as a 22-year-old back in 2022. There’s also sneaky speed here, as Murakami has stolen 10+ bases in four seasons. I wouldn’t worry about Murakami losing playing time, as there’s a specific clause in his contract that states he can’t be sent down to the minors without his approval.