Ryan Kirksey | Wed, Mar 18th 2026, 7:26am EDT

8 Fantasy Baseball Busts: Pitchers (2026)

Even with all of the (espresso-fueled) energy of the World Baseball Classic last week, we can’t forget there are still meaningful spring training games happening. In many ways, these games on small spring training fields across Florida and Arizona are much more meaningful for what we need to know this season. In the aggregate, spring training stats are mostly meaningless, but things like playing time, usage and lineup spots can be useful information. Some of these players will hit, while others will turn into fantasy baseball busts.

When preparing for your fantasy baseball drafts, knowing which pitchers could be potential busts is vitally important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to analyze all the information is to use our expert consensus rankings (ECR) compared to average draft position (ADP). This helps you identify players experts are willing to reach for at ADP, and others they are not drafting until much later than average. That type of exercise can help identify who the larger fantasy baseball population might consider a bust.

Fantasy Baseball Busts: Pitchers

Let’s look at eight pitchers who might be busts for 2026 compared to their fantasy baseball ADP this spring.

Chris Sale (SP – ATL)

Chris Sale is one of the most dominant pitchers of his generation, and just signed an extension that could take him through his age-38 season in Atlanta. Why is he at risk of busting in 2026 after a 2.58 ERA and a 32.4% strikeout rate? Simply put, he is old. He also hasn’t pitched a full season in a long time. Sale has made more than 25 starts just once since 2018, but beyond the age and injury risk, his numbers all trended worse last year than they did in 2024. His ERA, strikeout rate, groundball rate, walk rate and left-on-base percentage all got worse last season.

What if those numbers — while still good in 2025 — start to get a little bit worse again? Would you pay a top-40 price for a pitcher who has more than seven wins just once in his last six seasons? According to Statcast, his expected ERA was three-tenths of a run higher than his actual number last season, suggesting some regression is coming. Sale is still worth a pick in the top 75 of drafts, but at a similar spot in the draft, give me the younger Hunter Brown instead.

Jacob deGrom (SP – TEX)

In the context of Jacob deGrom’s career, what do 2025’s 172.2 innings pitched look like? Well, they were more innings than he pitched in the previous three years combined (105.1). It was also his most innings pitched since 2019 (204). So we can look at this two ways. First, deGrom is finally healthy and can repeat in 2026 with another 160+ innings with an ERA under 3.00 and about 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Or, we can see the 172.2 innings as an anomaly and something that can’t continue given deGrom’s injury history.

Give me the latter.

From the last time deGrom even threw more than 90 innings (2021), his ERA was up, strikeouts were down, walks were up and home runs were up. His groundball rate last year was five percentage points below his career average, and his expected ERA (3.36) was quite a bit higher than his real ERA (2.97). This all comes down to health and age. The Rangers hurler turns 38 in three months. He doesn’t have a good track record of health, but is going in the fourth round of drafts. No thanks.

Nick Pivetta (SP – SD)

After a breakout 2025 with the San Diego Padres, Nick Pivetta made good on the large contract the Padres gave him before last season ($55 million). However, fantasy managers should be wary of his fly-ball tendencies, his history of ERA troubles and his extremely low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in 2025.

While Petco Park is pitcher-friendly, Pivetta’s 33% groundball rate last season suggests he is still prone to the home run because of all the fly balls and line drives he allows. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was very good last year, but there was some regression after an elite 2024. Add in some inconsistency throughout his career, and I am more prone to trust the 2017-2024 seasons, which never had an ERA below 4.00, instead of one season where it dropped all the way down to 2.87.

Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR)

Kevin Gausman is about the closest thing we have to a modern workhorse in 2026. He made at least 31 starts in five consecutive seasons through 2025. In addition, Gausman has recorded five straight seasons with at least 174 innings pitched. In 2025 alone, he logged 193 innings, even as he entered his age-34 season. Sounds great, right?

Well, in 2025, Gausman finished with a mediocre 10-11 record, largely due to poor run support during his outings. Gausman was so solid that he led the Majors in 2025 with five starts of at least eight innings. But because his offense couldn’t provide him with run support, it didn’t translate to wins. Will that offense return in 2026? Will Gausman be as reliable at age 35 and after more than 900 innings pitched over the last five years?

Gausman should remain an innings-eater for Toronto. He is as reliable as they come, but he is likely not someone who will be able to get you 200 strikeouts or 15 wins anymore. The adage of better to be a year too early than a year too late applies here.

Josh Hader (RP – HOU)

Josh Hader’s stock is tumbling and getting closer and closer to pick 100 due to left biceps inflammation that has kept him off the mound this spring. The injury is particularly worrisome because it follows a shoulder strain that ended his 2025 season prematurely last August.

Hader and the team insist these two things are unrelated, but it’s hard not to tie them together when a pitcher who throws as hard as Hader does succumbs to multiple arm injuries. He hasn’t done more than throw on flat ground this spring. Hader is going to be on the injured list (IL) for Opening Day. Why would Houston rush their five-year investment when they have fireballer Bryan Abreu waiting in the wings for the ninth inning until returns?

At this point, it’s safe to say Hader will pitch in 2026, probably even in the first half of 2026. But the Astros have been mysterious with injuries the last couple of years, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this turned into a long absence. Drafters should beware of this situation.

Carlos Estevez (RP – KC)

Carlos Estevez is everyone’s poster child for regression among relief pitchers in 2026, and for good reason. He led the league with 42 saves with a 2.45 ERA in 2025, but that’s about where the good news ends. Estevez struck out fewer than eight batters per nine innings. He walked three batters per nine, and his expected ERA was 3.69

Add in the fact that the Royals have decided to move in the outfield walls in Kauffman Stadium, and this park is about to play a whole lot more friendly to hitters than it has in the past. A no-strikeout, fly-ball pitcher like Estevez is likely to be most negatively impacted. There might be an ugly 30 saves in his profile, but there is also the chance he loses the job by June.

Seth Lugo (SP – KC)

Seth Lugo evolved into a very reliable starting pitcher in 2025. But at age 36, it is certainly possible he sees some regression coming after a wonderful season last year. His success was largely due to a .266 BABIP that is almost 20 points below his career average and a left-on-base percentage that was above his career average (79.4% in 2025).

Lugo’s K/9 dropped for the fifth straight season (7.74 K/9), meaning he relies heavily on batted-ball luck and elite defense behind him. With his expected ERA sitting a full run higher than his actual ERA last season (5.17 to 4.15), any regression to the mean in these numbers in Kansas City could see his ratios balloon, making him a major liability for those expecting another strong performance. Plus, Lugo gets the same more hitter-friendly park as Carlos Estevez this year as well.

Taj Bradley (SP – MIN)

Across the highest levels of minor league competition in 2022, Taj Bradley dominated. He posted a 2.57 ERA and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings across 28 starts, and his Major League debut came the very next year. After putting up ERAs of 5.59, 4.11 and 5.05 the last three seasons, the Tampa Bay Rays decided they had enough and shipped him to Minnesota. Eager for a chance to prove himself with a new squad this spring, Bradley has not impressed.

Bradley has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP across 14 innings this spring, which is even more disappointing with the opportunity in front of him. With Pablo Lopez out and Joe Ryan dealing with back issues, Bradley has a rotation spot to start the season. But it remains to be seen if he can keep it. Fantasy managers are largely out on Bradley now, with this ADP falling past pick 350 in many formats.

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