Fantasy Baseball Busts (2026)

When preparing for your fantasy baseball drafts, knowing which pitchers could be potential fantasy baseball busts is vitally important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to analyze all the information is to use our expert consensus rankings (ECR) compared to average draft position (ADP). This helps you identify players experts are willing to reach for at ADP, and others they are not drafting until much later than average. That type of exercise can help identify who the larger fantasy baseball population might consider a bust.

Fantasy Baseball Busts: Pitchers

Let’s look at pitchers who might be busts for 2026 compared to their fantasy baseball ADP this spring.

Chris Sale (SP – ATL)

Chris Sale is one of the most dominant pitchers of his generation, and just signed an extension that could take him through his age-38 season in Atlanta. Why is he at risk of busting in 2026 after a 2.58 ERA and a 32.4% strikeout rate? Simply put, he is old. He also hasn’t pitched a full season in a long time. Sale has made more than 25 starts just once since 2018, but beyond the age and injury risk, his numbers all trended worse last year than they did in 2024. His ERA, strikeout rate, groundball rate, walk rate and left-on-base percentage all got worse last season.

What if those numbers — while still good in 2025 — start to get a little bit worse again? Would you pay a top-40 price for a pitcher who has more than seven wins just once in his last six seasons? According to Statcast, his expected ERA was three-tenths of a run higher than his actual number last season, suggesting some regression is coming. Sale is still worth a pick in the top 75 of drafts, but at a similar spot in the draft, give me the younger Hunter Brown instead.

Jacob deGrom (SP – TEX)

In the context of Jacob deGrom’s career, what do 2025’s 172.2 innings pitched look like? Well, they were more innings than he pitched in the previous three years combined (105.1). It was also his most innings pitched since 2019 (204). So we can look at this two ways. First, deGrom is finally healthy and can repeat in 2026 with another 160+ innings with an ERA under 3.00 and about 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Or, we can see the 172.2 innings as an anomaly and something that can’t continue given deGrom’s injury history.

Give me the latter.

From the last time deGrom even threw more than 90 innings (2021), his ERA was up, strikeouts were down, walks were up and home runs were up. His groundball rate last year was five percentage points below his career average, and his expected ERA (3.36) was quite a bit higher than his real ERA (2.97). This all comes down to health and age. The Rangers hurler turns 38 in three months. He doesn’t have a good track record of health, but is going in the fourth round of drafts. No thanks.

Nick Pivetta (SP – SD)

After a breakout 2025 with the San Diego Padres, Nick Pivetta made good on the large contract the Padres gave him before last season ($55 million). However, fantasy managers should be wary of his fly-ball tendencies, his history of ERA troubles and his extremely low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in 2025.

While Petco Park is pitcher-friendly, Pivetta’s 33% groundball rate last season suggests he is still prone to the home run because of all the fly balls and line drives he allows. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was very good last year, but there was some regression after an elite 2024. Add in some inconsistency throughout his career, and I am more prone to trust the 2017-2024 seasons, which never had an ERA below 4.00, instead of one season where it dropped all the way down to 2.87.

Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR)

Kevin Gausman is about the closest thing we have to a modern workhorse in 2026. He made at least 31 starts in five consecutive seasons through 2025. In addition, Gausman has recorded five straight seasons with at least 174 innings pitched. In 2025 alone, he logged 193 innings, even as he entered his age-34 season. Sounds great, right?

Well, in 2025, Gausman finished with a mediocre 10-11 record, largely due to poor run support during his outings. Gausman was so solid that he led the Majors in 2025 with five starts of at least eight innings. But because his offense couldn’t provide him with run support, it didn’t translate to wins. Will that offense return in 2026? Will Gausman be as reliable at age 35 and after more than 900 innings pitched over the last five years?

Gausman should remain an innings-eater for Toronto. He is as reliable as they come, but he is likely not someone who will be able to get you 200 strikeouts or 15 wins anymore. The adage of better to be a year too early than a year too late applies here.