FantasyPros Staff | Fri, Mar 20th 2026, 3:56am EDT

Fantasy Baseball Busts (2026)

When preparing for your fantasy baseball drafts, knowing which pitchers could be potential fantasy baseball busts is vitally important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to analyze all the information is to use our expert consensus rankings (ECR) compared to average draft position (ADP). This helps you identify players experts are willing to reach for at ADP, and others they are not drafting until much later than average. That type of exercise can help identify who the larger fantasy baseball population might consider a bust.

Fantasy Baseball Busts: Pitchers

Let’s look at pitchers who might be busts for 2026 compared to their fantasy baseball ADP this spring.

Josh Hader (RP – HOU)

Josh Hader’s stock is tumbling and getting closer and closer to pick 100 due to left biceps inflammation that has kept him off the mound this spring. The injury is particularly worrisome because it follows a shoulder strain that ended his 2025 season prematurely last August.

Hader and the team insist these two things are unrelated, but it’s hard not to tie them together when a pitcher who throws as hard as Hader does succumbs to multiple arm injuries. He hasn’t done more than throw on flat ground this spring. Hader is going to be on the injured list (IL) for Opening Day. Why would Houston rush their five-year investment when they have fireballer Bryan Abreu waiting in the wings for the ninth inning until returns?

At this point, it’s safe to say Hader will pitch in 2026, probably even in the first half of 2026. But the Astros have been mysterious with injuries the last couple of years, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this turned into a long absence. Drafters should beware of this situation.

Carlos Estevez (RP – KC)

Carlos Estevez is everyone’s poster child for regression among relief pitchers in 2026, and for good reason. He led the league with 42 saves with a 2.45 ERA in 2025, but that’s about where the good news ends. Estevez struck out fewer than eight batters per nine innings. He walked three batters per nine, and his expected ERA was 3.69

Add in the fact that the Royals have decided to move in the outfield walls in Kauffman Stadium, and this park is about to play a whole lot more friendly to hitters than it has in the past. A no-strikeout, fly-ball pitcher like Estevez is likely to be most negatively impacted. There might be an ugly 30 saves in his profile, but there is also the chance he loses the job by June.

Seth Lugo (SP – KC)

Seth Lugo evolved into a very reliable starting pitcher in 2025. But at age 36, it is certainly possible he sees some regression coming after a wonderful season last year. His success was largely due to a .266 BABIP that is almost 20 points below his career average and a left-on-base percentage that was above his career average (79.4% in 2025).

Lugo’s K/9 dropped for the fifth straight season (7.74 K/9), meaning he relies heavily on batted-ball luck and elite defense behind him. With his expected ERA sitting a full run higher than his actual ERA last season (5.17 to 4.15), any regression to the mean in these numbers in Kansas City could see his ratios balloon, making him a major liability for those expecting another strong performance. Plus, Lugo gets the same more hitter-friendly park as Carlos Estevez this year as well.

Taj Bradley (SP – MIN)

Across the highest levels of minor league competition in 2022, Taj Bradley dominated. He posted a 2.57 ERA and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings across 28 starts, and his Major League debut came the very next year. After putting up ERAs of 5.59, 4.11 and 5.05 the last three seasons, the Tampa Bay Rays decided they had enough and shipped him to Minnesota. Eager for a chance to prove himself with a new squad this spring, Bradley has not impressed.

Bradley has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP across 14 innings this spring, which is even more disappointing with the opportunity in front of him. With Pablo Lopez out and Joe Ryan dealing with back issues, Bradley has a rotation spot to start the season. But it remains to be seen if he can keep it. Fantasy managers are largely out on Bradley now, with this ADP falling past pick 350 in many formats.

NFL

MLB

NBA

NHL