Fantasy Baseball Busts to Avoid (2026)

Below are players in the top 100 in NFBC ADP who might have a hard time returning value on the investment in 2026. By no means does this imply we should not draft them, but if they slide past their fantasy baseball ADP, that might be a better time to pull the trigger. Let’s explore a few fantasy baseball busts to avoid.

Fantasy Baseball Busts to Avoid

Junior Caminero (3B – TB) | 15.1 NFBC ADP

Our first iteration of fantasy baseball busts that came out in January listed Junior Caminero, but I think it’s worth doubling down to discuss how risky he is in the first round of drafts. As Frank Ammirante pointed out, Caminero had a .313 average and .595 SLG% at home last season, and those numbers dropped to .218 and .477 on the road. That’s all well and good if he were able to play in the Steinbrenner Field again, a minor league park. However, the Rays are moving back into cavernous Tropicana Field, which is much better for pitchers.

In 2024, Tropicana Field was 29th out of 30 stadiums in offensive park factor and was below average in home run frequency. Caminero has the raw power to hit the ball out of anywhere, but I want a sure thing if I’m taking a player in the top 15 picks, and right now Caminero has some huge question marks next to his name. He is just 22 years old and had a 51% hard-hit rate last season, but drafters are starting to catch onto the risk. Since January, his ADP has dropped from 13 to 15. That may not sound like a lot, but in the context of only 15 picks, those two spots are massive.

Chris Sale (SP – ATL) | 40.5 NFBC ADP

Chris Sale is one of the most dominant pitchers of his generation, and just signed an extension that could take him through his age-38 season in Atlanta. So why is he at risk of busting in 2026 after a 2.58 ERA and a 32.4% strikeout rate? Simply put, he is old. He also hasn’t pitched a full season in a long time. Sale has made more than 25 starts just once since 2018, but beyond the age and injury risk, his numbers all trended worse last year than they did in 2024. His ERA, strikeout rate, ground ball rate, walk rate, and left-on-base percentage all got worse last season.

What if those numbers – while still good in 2025 – start to get a little bit worse again? Would you pay a top-40 price for a pitcher who has more than seven wins just once in his last six seasons? According to Statcast, his expected ERA was three-tenths of a run higher than his actual number last season, suggesting some regression is coming. Sale is still worth a pick in the top 75 of drafts, but at a similar spot in the draft, give me the younger Hunter Brown.

Mookie Betts (SS – LAD) | 53.4 NFBC ADP

Here’s the positive spin on why Mookie Betts could revert back to a top-25 player in 2025. Betts lost nearly 20 pounds early in 2025 due to a severe stomach illness and later fractured a toe. He also cited the mental strain of learning a new position (shortstop) while dealing with the pressure of being a defending champion. Those appear to all be behind him. The addition of Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers’ lineup is expected to provide better protection and more RBI opportunities, as Betts is slated to hit third behind Ohtani and Tucker. All that is the good news.

When I say Betts may bust, it’s not in relation to the career-worst .258/.326/.406 slash line with a .148 ISO. It’s in relation to his draft capital at pick 53 and projections calling for him to hit 24 home runs, drive in 95 runs, and hit .275. Betts’ hard-hit rate and barrel rate have fallen for three straight years, and he hasn’t crossed 90 miles per hour in average exit velocity in three seasons. At age 33, those things don’t typically spike back up. He will certainly have a productive year, but a top-20 hitter year? I’m skeptical.