Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate as we look toward the playoffs on the horizon. The NBA is in full focus right now, with no football or baseball yet, and hopefully, you took advantage of the insane game by Bam Adebayo. Don’t expect the same thing tonight. If you’re going to do NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a solid eight-game slate tonight, so you shouldn’t have to go too crazy when differentiating your lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $12,500
- FanDuel: $12,700
Another day, another slate. I like Nikola Jokic as a core play. Early ownership pegs Jokic around 36 percent, and I think that’s quite reasonable. The man has gone under 57 fantasy points just once in his last 10 games. It will be fun to watch him battle it out with Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs, but despite San Antonio’s top-five defense, they actually allow fantasy points to centers at a top-10 clip over their last 10 games. Jokic, at this point, is pretty matchup proof, but it helps finding any reason to go to him. It’s hard to find the number of pure points he’s going to offer from anyone else, and there’s about a third of a chance he will end up being a must-have.
- DraftKings: $10,800
- FanDuel: $11,500
The pacing will be bad, but the defense will be worse as I expect Jalen Johnson to pop off tonight in Brooklyn. The tank is on as the Nets are 4-11 in their last 15 games, with half the team hurt and ranking as the second-worst defense during that stretch. Johnson has gone over 40 fantasy points in three straight games, with a 62 and 54 point effort thrown in there during the Hawks’ seven game win streak. His usage is 27 percent, and he’s been playing increased minutes. Projecting him around 1.35 FPPM projects him over 50 fantasy points tonight, setting up your lineup nicely.
- DraftKings: $8,800
- FanDuel: $8,900
I’m moving off the heavy hitters at the top for guard and going down to Booker as my preferred play at the position. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing point guards than the Indiana Pacers over their last 15 games. Their defense ranks third-worst in the same time frame with a 2-13 record and the third-fastest pace of play. With all their questionable players, it’s hard to ask for a better setup for a ceiling performance out of Booker. He’s been consistent recently, too, going over 43 points in four straight games. I’d be surprised if he goes under that and expect his ownership to steam as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $8,500
- FanDuel: $8,800
It always helps when a player has guard/forward eligibility on DraftKings, and it especially helps when that person is Cooper Flagg. The Dallas star has averaged 38 fantasy points this year and has covered 35 in 11 of his last 12 games. Against Memphis, I only love him more. The Grizzlies have allowed the fifth most fantasy points across the board in their last 15 games, and with the plethora of injuries, saying they’re playing undermanned is a bit of an understatement. The total here is creeping around 240, and I actually like the over. Flagg will likely be highly owned tonight, but given the flexibility he allows for your lineup without going crazy on pricing, he’s a clear play.
- DraftKings: $9,500
- FanDuel: $9,900
After Washington became (stayed?) the laughing stock of the NBA against Miami the other night, I’m going right back to the well as Orlando gets a lick at them in Florida. Paolo hasn’t gone under 40 fantasy points in eight straight games, so the floor here is high. His usage has been right around 30 percent over the last two weeks of play, a slight uptick on the season, and he should play around 35 minutes tonight. What isn’t there to love? I’m honestly surprised by how owned Paolo is right now, and I expect it to rise, but I currently am comfortable with him in GPP and cash lineups. Desmond Bane is another option for Orlando, I like in cash lineups.
- DraftKings: $6,400
- FanDuel: $6,400
For a bit of a salary saving option in cash, I’m not going to Adebayo but instead the next best option – Jaime Jaquez. The Heat forward has been consistent, going over 30 fantasy points in four of his last five games. With no Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, and Tyler Herro questionable and you can see how Jaquez can get his fill. The UCLA product gets a bump playing at home, and despite the pace down set up, the Milwaukee defense still has plenty of holes to take advantage of, ranking fourth-worst since the All-Star break. I like Miami across the board here, but with the price point of Jaquez, he’s my go-to cash play.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $10,900
- FanDuel: $11,100
You knew when I skipped over Cade as a core play, he’d end up here. And I’ll get this out of the way, saying yes, SGA is also a good GPP play, along with Wemby; they always are. Tonight I will pepper them into some lineups, sure, but don’t really love the leverage they offer as much as I usually do for a given GPP play.
Instead, I’m going to Cade. The Detroit guard is capable of going over 60 any night and is looking to be under double-digit ownership against Philly at home tonight. It may be a low total, but the 76ers are missing three different starters, with Adem Bona questionable. There’s a decent chance the Oklahoma State product can score at will as 15 point favorites. Assuming his ownership has peaked, Cunningham is a great leverage spot at guard.
- DraftKings: $6,700
- FanDuel: $6,500
Somebody has to score for Indiana tonight, and Walker might be the only one left standing. Andre Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, and Ivica Zubac are all either questionable or out tonight. Not to mention T.J. McConnell, Quenton Jackson, and Obi Toppin coming off the injury report. It’s risky because Phoenix is one of the tougher opponents to play against, but that’s what we’re searching for in GPP plays on an eight-gamer. I can’t imagine Walker will get more than seven percent ownership and grades out as an excellent GPP play simply because the opportunity of 30-plus minutes could lead him to a 40-50 point effort, as he’s done before.
- DraftKings: $7,200
- FanDuel: $7,200
Besides Wemby, Stephon Castle is lining up as a solid ceiling option. Figuring out Denver-San Antonio might be the crux of tonight’s slate with the 240 point total and heavy hitters featured in the game. Castle offers great value and projects well, but he’s just not getting much ownership. Especially with this game coming late, he’s in a prime spot for a late swap once we get more information with how the games are going. He’s consistently scored over 30 fantasy points and has played 34-plus minutes in three out of his last four games. The opportunity will be there, and points will be scored; why not Castle?
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $5,500
- FanDuel: $5,700
Early on the day, Memphis is looking like it’s littered with value options on the slate. Rayan Rupert, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, and Jahmai Mashack all project well right now, and with the number of injuries, that might only improve. Small, I simply trust the most because his minutes seem most secure, as I imagine him to see about 33 minutes on the court tonight. He’s scored 30 fantasy points in three of his last four starts, and I imagine he’s in line to continue that trend here. It also helps that over their last 15 games, Dallas has been the second friendliest opponent to opposing point guards, so Small will likely get a lot of ownership here tonight.
- DraftKings: $4,800
- FanDuel: $5,300
The other team lining up for lots of value has to be the Brooklyn Nets. With no Nolan Traore, Michael Porter Jr., Day’Ron Sharpe, and likely Ziaire Williams, a lot of playing time is opening up. Playing time for the likes of Mr. Wolf. There’s a chance the Nets frontcourt piece ends up being the best value here, with about 30 minutes of play in line for him tonight. As a 1.25 FPPM guy, you can see why I’m so bullish on him in one of the biggest pace up spots you could ask for against Atlanta. Between Wolf, Jalen Wilson, and Ben Saraf, one of these players are going to pop tonight and be a solid ROI, my lean is Wolf.
- DraftKings: $4,300
- FanDuel: $4,200
For more of a punt/GPP play in the value area tonight, I’m going with Dominick Barlow. We’ve seen him go for 57 fantasy points before, and while I don’t expect that tonight, it’s clear he has ceiling potential. Without Tyrese Maxey in the lineup, or Kelly Oubre or Embiid, for that matter, usage really opens up for Philly. Barlow should see the court for around 30 minutes, and even in a tougher matchup against Detroit, that still screams value and opportunity for where he’s priced on both sites.
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