The NFL Draft is here. Although some degenerates in the community (myself included) have been drafting best ball teams since all the way back in January. The draft is the start of the true fantasy football season. With this in mind, now is a great time to look back at the players who have seen their values change the most over the last few months.
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Whether you’ve been locked in all offseason and just need a refresher, or you’re just checking in now and want a summary of the biggest risers and fallers, this article is for you. I’ll compare current expert consensus rankings (ECR) to those from early March, doing my best to explain why each player’s value has shifted. With that out of the way, let’s get started.
Fantasy Football Players Trending Up & Down
Fantasy Football Players Trending Up
DJ Moore (WR – BUF) | March ECR: 98/Current ECR: 66
DJ Moore is now a Buffalo Bill. In Chicago, the veteran was in danger of becoming an afterthought behind three ascending young players in Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland. In Buffalo, he is set up to be the unquestioned top receiver for 2024 MVP Josh Allen.
We don’t want to get over our skis with Moore. The 29-year-old has trended down in terms of efficiency over the last few years; the history of receivers moving to new teams on the downslope of their careers is riddled with expensive fantasy busts. And, despite Allen’s immense talent, the Bills’ offense hasn’t exactly been conducive to receiver fantasy success in recent years.
But Buffalo’s front office clearly made this move (giving up a second in this year’s draft), expecting Moore to be their most talented receiver since Stefon Diggs, who certainly had fantasy success in Buffalo. While we can quibble over whether he’s risen too far or not far enough, there’s a reason Moore is once again ranked as a borderline WR2 despite coming off a disappointing 2025.
Bhayshul Tuten (RB – JAX) | March ECR: 87/Current ECR: 64
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB – JAX) | March ECR: 207/Current ECR: 152
These two Jacksonville running backs have been the most hotly debated duo of the offseason. And they’ve risen nearly identical amounts (30.5% and 30.6%) since March. So let’s take a look at them together.
Starting with Bhayshul Tuten, he is up because Travis Etienne‘s departure to New Orleans has led many to assume he will now be the Jaguars’ No. 1 RB. This is especially exciting given both Tuten’s awesome prospect profile and Liam Coen’s proclivity for turning versatile backs into fantasy studs.
Chris Rodriguez Jr., meanwhile, signed with the Jaguars during free agency. Although his average draft position (ADP) is clearly much lower than Tuten’s, there are plenty of voices in the fantasy community arguing that the former Commander will actually be Jacksonville’s primary rusher.
Rodriguez was efficient in 2025, as well as effective near the goal line. He might be the classic “boring” pick that pays big dividends by the end of the season.
Personally, I lean toward the Tuten side of this debate, for one reason: Upside. Rodriguez has recorded just six receptions in his three years in the NFL — that’s only one more than the number of times he was waived or sent to Washington’s practice squad (five).
Unless Rodriguez runs incredibly hot on goal-line touchdowns, he’s unlikely to be a fantasy difference-maker. Tuten, on the other hand, has the explosive athletic ability and receiving chops to be a legit fantasy stud if he can win this backfield competition. I’m chasing that ceiling every time.
With that said, Tuten is obviously much more expensive than his veteran counterpart. I wouldn’t draft them both on the same team, but I don’t hate targeting either, depending on your team situation.
At the very least, landing as the top two options in the Jaguars’ ascending offense is a great outcome for both backs, so it makes sense that they are both up since the start of the offseason.
Kenneth Walker III (RB – KC) | March ECR: 37/Current ECR: 25
I’ll keep this one short, as it’s pretty simple. I imagine even the most casual fantasy managers have heard of the reigning Super Bowl MVP signing with the dynasty of the decade. Walker was the biggest free agent running back of the offseason, and he ended up in the best possible landing spot.
Even though Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been as dominant over the last few years, playing alongside Patrick Mahomes (with Emari Demercado as his top competition) should be great for the fantasy value of Kenneth Walker III. If anything, I expect Walker to rise further as we approach the season, especially if we get positive updates on Mahomes’ health.
Fantasy Football Players Trending Down
Emmett Johnson (RB – Nebraska) | March ECR: 109/Current ECR: 164
Emmett Johnson is a cautionary tale for those of us who love pre-draft fantasy football. Drafting rookies before we even know their NFL landing spots is a great way to find massive upside, but it’s also a great way to fill your team with zeroes.
Those zeroes normally reveal themselves on draft night, but sometimes we get the bad news about rookies even earlier. Johnson is an example of that, as his 40% fall since March is by far the largest of any top-200 player.
The reason for Johnson’s plummeting fantasy stock is simple: His real-life draft stock has plummeted. In March, he was the 80th overall player in NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus big board, on track to be a Day 2 pick. Now, he’s down to 113 overall and falling, looking likely to be a Day 3 selection.
The largest culprit in these dual falls is likely Johnson’s mediocre numbers at the NFL Scouting Combine. He ran a 4.56-second 40-yard dash despite weighing in at just 202 pounds, good for a well below-average 93.4 speed score. This is doubly bad for fantasy purposes, where we want backs who are explosive enough to consistently break big runs, big enough to handle volume. Ideally both.
Of course, Johnson’s fantasy stock has another massive inflection point coming up in the NFL Draft. If he lands in a good spot with decent draft capital, he could go shooting back up in consensus rankings.
If Johnson ends up in a crowded backfield with Day 3 capital, he’s likely destined for fantasy irrelevance. Overall, his rocky offseason is a good reminder that rookies are incredibly high-variance options, especially before the Draft itself.
Bucky Irving (RB – TB) | March ECR: 30/Current ECR: 42
Bucky Irving’s 12-spot fall isn’t massive in absolute terms, but those 12 spots mean a lot more in the early rounds of the draft. No other player in the first six rounds has fallen more than eight spots (Joe Burrow) since March. Unfortunately, this slide seems justified in the case of the talented young running back.
Even at the start of the offseason, Irving was in an odd situation. After a very impressive rookie year in which he rose from a fourth-rounder backup to the Buccaneers’ No. 1 RB and a fantasy star, Irving’s second year was undeniably disappointing. He missed a large chunk of the season with injuries (shoulder and foot) and was underwhelming even after his return, with just 10.2 half-PPR points per game.
Now, Tampa Bay’s offseason moves have further clouded the fantasy outlook for the talented third-year back. The Buccaneers signed Kenneth Gainwell to a free agent contract and also eventually retained restricted free agent Sean Tucker.
Gainwell, who ranked fourth among backs with 73 receptions last season, is a competent player and especially a threat to Irving’s receiving workload. Tucker likely won’t see many touches per game, but he can still be a massive thorn in Irving’s side at the goal line.
Even if we filter to just the games where Irving was active, Tucker saw seven carries inside the 5-yard line in 2025. Rachaad White saw two. Irving (who weighed in at just 192 pounds at the 2024 combine) saw zero.
Irving is a talented playmaker and should still easily lead the Buccaneers’ backfield in total touches this season. But Gainwell and Tucker are threats to his ability to see the two most valuable types of touches: Receptions and goal-line carries. It’s hard to justify making Irving your RB1 or even RB2 with that in mind, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to slip as the season approaches.
Theo Johnson (TE – NYG) | March ECR: 190/Current ECR: 254
Theo Johnson was barely hanging onto fantasy relevance even at the beginning of the offseason, ranked just inside the top 200 overall players as the TE22.
But the third-year tight end was an interesting sleeper at that price, with above-average athleticism and a solid role as the Giants’ clear No. 1 TE. You could even make a case that he was the Giants’ second-most intriguing pass-catcher after Malik Nabers, opening a path to legit fantasy upside.
Unfortunately, that dream is now all but dead. The Giants signed Isaiah Likely to a decent contract this offseason, reuniting the former Raven with John Harbaugh.
While I’m on the record as being very skeptical of Likely’s fantasy hype, even I won’t deny that he is likely (pun intended) to play ahead of Johnson, at least in clear passing situations. That makes Johnson essentially irrelevant for 2026 fantasy football. I wouldn’t recommend selecting him even in very deep leagues.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.