Patrick Mahomes

There is plenty of hype surrounding Mahomes after one big game. Let's not forget Matt Flynn, though, who was similar before busting. Yes, he has weapons to throw to and a huge arm, but there are also question marks that leave Mahomes as a major risk too.

Patrick Mahomes over/under on touchdown passes is just 21.5

According to numbers released by SportsBettingDime.com, Vegas isn't nearly as high on Patrick Mahomes as the fantasy football community is, setting an over-under of 21.5 touchdown passes for his first season as an NFL starter. With free-agent addition Sammy Watkins joining Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt, Kansas City is expected to have one of the top offenses in the NFL.

Fantasy Impact

Alex Smith threw for a career-high 4,042 yards and 26 touchdowns for Andy Reid's offense in 2017. The addition of Watkins appears to only improve an offense which should be bolstered by Mahomes's huge throwing arm and athleticism. Mahomes is considered one of the top breakout candidates of 2018 and is being drafted as a potential fantasy starter. The over-under total seems curiously low considering the circumstances. Then again, it could be a great opportunity for fantasy football fans to make their first legal -- on the over.