Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not which allows astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
We are very early in the season when people will make bad decisions in terms of trades because of the small samples. Hot streaks and cold streaks can scare your competition and sometimes underlying numbers aren’t showing up on the surface numbers quite yet. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience. Here are some players that I would try and buy low and sell high on at this point in the season.
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant
- Fantasy Baseball Lineup Assistant
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Baseball Players to Buy Low & Sell High
Buy Low
Luzardo has struggled mightily through his first five starts, throwing 27.1 innings with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. In spite of the surface stats, Luzardo is throwing the ball really well. His Stuff+ is in the top 10 in baseball, his walk rates and home runs rates are low and he has the best swinging strike rate of his career. He is getting insanely unlucky with an extremely high BABIP, an extremely low strand rate and a HR/FB% above his career norms. He is going to rebound and this may be the last chance to buy low as he has a fantastic two-start week coming up against the terrible Giants offense and at the Marlins.
Perez has started the year hitting .172/.212/.301 with five home runs in 99 plate appearances. He is getting extremely unlucky with a .186 BABIP and has been dealing with a hip issue which may be contributing a bit to the struggles. Perez has been one of the most stable offensive contributors over his career and I would be surprised if he didn’t turn it around.
Pasquantino is hitting .160/.248/.298 with three home runs so far this season in 109 plate appearances. He has been unlucky with a .169 BABIP and is still making good contact in the zone and over the last two weeks, his statcast profile is beginning to look a lot better. The cold streak is coming to an end and this is the time to buy.
Crochet has struggled so far this season, throwing 24 innings over five starts with a 7.88 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. The velocity is down about half a tick, but that should come back as the season goes on. He is getting unlucky with a massively high BABIP and low strand rate. His SIERA is at 3.51, and while that would still be disappointing, we wouldn’t have the chance to buy low on him, which you should be doing before he turns back into an ace.
Sell High
Walker has been electric to start the season, hitting .292/.357/.607 with eight home runs and four stolen bases in 98 plate appearances thus far. However, over the last ten days the shine has begun to wear off. He is hitting .207/.281/.276 with no home runs and the underlying contact skills have cratered to a 66.7% Z-Contact and a 22% swinging strike rate. We knew he wouldn’t be a stud forever, but these numbers are so troubling, you have to trade him before people catch on that the insane hot streak is over.
Cruz has started off the season, hitting .284/.348/.569 with eight home runs and 10 stolen bases. We know he has power and speed and that likely isn’t going anywhere, but the average is going to disappear. His underlying contact skills are actually worse than they ever have been with the worst Z-Contact, swinging strike rate and O-Swing of his career. You might be able to get a stud back for him in return still and I would before he turns back into the guy he has always been.
Keller has started strong throwing 29 innings over five starts with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He has been extremely lucky with a .259 BABIP and a 76% strand rate. The strikeout rate has been abysmal as well. He is going to regress and be more of the 4.20 ERA guy we have seen for the last few years.
Holmes has been fantastic so far, throwing 26.1 innings with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over five starts. He has gotten lucky with a .208 BABIP and in the HR/FB%. His stuff is under 100 which is showing us why his strikeout rate is down. He continues to walk too many batters and at some point that will be a problem when the homers come. Time to sell before they do.
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