NBA DFS Lineup Picks & Advice: Thursday (4/9)

Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate with the playoffs on the horizon. The NBA can get a little weird here with some teams jockeying for position, some teams have clinched their spot and can’t move, while others are aggressively tanking. That makes for some interesting possibilities to earn some big cashes. If you’re going to do NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a solid five-game slate tonight, so you shouldn’t have to go too crazy when differentiating your lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Core Plays

Tyrese Maxey (PG – PHI)

DraftKings: $9,500
FanDuel: $10,000

It’s hard to find a better pure point guard on the slate than Tyrese Maxey. He’s averaging nearly 50 fantasy points a game with a 1.3 FPPM number. He has played nearly 38 minutes a night in the last two weeks, with a 25 percent usage rate during that timeline. Houston isn’t the friendliest matchup, but their defense has dropped outside the top-10 since the All-Star break. In their last 15 games, Houston has actually allowed the ninth most fantasy points to opposing point guards. This game should stay close while Maxey should get a lot of run, as the 76ers attempt to move up and out of the play-in game. I don’t imagine he will be heavily owned as the “fifth” opponent rank next to Maxey’s name on DraftKings, and his last two sub-par games will push ownership down. He’s still a core play for me.

Scottie Barnes (PF – TOR)

DraftKings: $8,900
FanDuel: $9,700

Another team with something to play for, still, as they try to fight off the 76ers from taking their playoff spot, is the Raptors. Who else to lead them to the promised land but Scottie Barnes? Miami is one of the friendliest fantasy options you can find as the fastest paced team on the slate. Barnes is coming off a 47 point effort just two days ago in this same matchup, and I expect similar production tonight. The Heat defense has also taken a step back post All-Star break, ranking 22nd in that timeline. The Heat have allowed similar fantasy points to opposing power forwards as the Jazz and Bulls in their last 30 games, which isn’t good company to be in, but great company to be in for us.

Tre Jones (PG/SG – CHI)

DraftKings: $7,100
FanDuel: $7,300

Let’s get a little weird, shall we? Washington has more or less thrown in the towel, and it reflects defensively. Josh Giddey has missed his last two games, and he’s expected to miss again tonight. In those two games, Jones has gone for 45 and 37 fantasy points and projects above 35 again here. We haven’t seen a big price jump, but his usage rate jumped to a 28 percent average in those two games. Of course, it’s a small sample size, but if those numbers hold true, Jones is massively underpriced and massively underrostered.

NBA DFS Cash Game Targets

Collin Sexton (SG/SF/PF – CHI)

DraftKings: $6,600
FanDuel: $7,200

With no Giddey, or Isaac Okoro, or Matas Buzelis, or Nick Richards, somebody has to score for Chicago tonight. A lot of that will fall on Sexton. He should play around 30 minutes tonight with a 25 percent usage rate, which should be plenty against the Washington Wizards. Since the break, the Wizards rank third in pace of play while third-to-last in defense. Given his guard-forward status, I imagine Sexton gets a lot of ownership, but he’s surprisingly safe here for his play style. He’s gone over 35 fantasy points in consecutive games, and I would be shocked if he doesn’t cover that benchmark again here. He is dealing with a finger issue, so again, monitor any injury news, but I expect him to be full go tonight.

Bam Adebayo (C/PF – MIA)

DraftKings: $8,700
FanDuel: $9,200

Between Joel Embiid and Bam Adebayo, I expect a lot of the center ownership to funnel through those two on the slate tonight. Given the price discount with similar projections, I’m leaning toward Bam. The Heat center has gone over 35 fantasy points in 18 of his last 20 games, which is a solid jumping off point. Of course, you want more, but his projection around 44 fantasy points combined with a safe floor is exactly why I’m going to him here. I imagine he will be over a quarter owned across lineups tonight, but his safety is what you’re paying for. The Heat can still jump a spot in the standings, and we’ve seen a jump in minutes for Bam of late while his usage rate has stayed steady.

Amen Thompson (PG – HOU)

DraftKings: $7,800
FanDuel: $8,900

Another player who is underpriced and projects well is Amen Thompson. Houston can still jump to third in the west standings, and with a $1.1k pricing difference on DraftKings, he makes for an excellent play on DK. The Rockets guard has averaged 37 minutes a night in his last seven games, which offers plenty of opportunity for him to get to his seasonal average of around 40 fantasy points, right around where he projects.

NBA DFS GPP Targets

Jayson Tatum (PF/SF – BOS)

DraftKings: $10,000
FanDuel: $10,600

It may seem counterproductive to risk Tatum with the Celtics essentially locked up as the two seed, but if you look around him, nearly the whole starting Boston lineup is questionable tonight. With the Knicks playing nearly as slow as Boston, the total is 217, and I can’t imagine this game getting a lot of ownership. Especially if Jaylen Brown is out, Tatum will be leaned on in a big way as Boston tries to lock up the two-seed. This is a riskier play, simply with the minutes question and the matchup, but for deeper field GPP’s, Tatum is worth a few dart throws.

Alperen Sengun (C/PF – HOU)

DraftKings: $8,600
FanDuel: $9,400

I mentioned how I expect a lot of the ownership at the center spot to go to Embiid and Bam, and while I could be wrong, it appears that Sengun is falling through the cracks, with around 13 percent projected ownership. We’ve seen a handful of 70-plus point efforts from the Houston big man, and despite the 76ers getting Embiid back in the lineup, Philly has still allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing centers over their last 15 games. Don’t be afraid to fill some of your lineups with Sengun and fade the big guns at the top.

Brandon Ingram (SG/PF – TOR)

DraftKings: $7,900
FanDuel: $7,400

Scottie Barnes is one of my core plays tonight from the pace up spot, but there’s an equal chance one of the other starters gets a big bump as well. Brandon Ingram is projected around 12 percent ownership, while RJ Barrett sits at 14 percent. They’re relatively cheap and, given the number of possessions, can rack up points quickly at home, where Ingram gets a nice three point bump average.

NBA DFS Value Plays

Tyson Etienne (PG/SG – BKN)

DraftKings: $3,500
FanDuel: $4,000

Brooklyn and Boston are lining up to be the value plays of the slate today, with the injuries we know and the questionable tags that leave questions to be answered later in the day. As of now, Etienne looks to be one of the best value plays on the slate. It may be a tank-a-thon, but Etienne, Trevon Scott, and Malachi Smith all project to return over 7.0X ROI compared to their pricing, while E.J. Liddell, Ben Saraf, and Chaney Johnson all might return 6.0X ROI. Brooklyn may be slow, but the Pacers are 3-21 since the break, with the second-worst defense during that same time frame. There will be plenty of opportunities for scoring here.

Rob Dillingham (PG/SG – CHI)

DraftKings: $4,400
FanDuel: $4,200

The game to throw darts at today is easily Chicago-Washington. The Wizards have three questionable starters, while Chicago already has Josh Giddey out. Dillingham might not start, but he’s in line for additional usage tonight that projects him for over 25 fantasy points against the team that’s allowed the most overall fantasy points to opponents over their last 30 games. Patrick Williams, Lachlan Olbrich, and Leonard Miller line up as solid values tonight to go with Dillingham.

Ethan Thompson (SG – IND)

DraftKings: $4,100
FanDuel: $4,200

To go with the Brooklyn options, there are some solid value choices for Indy tonight as well. The Nets may play at a slower pace, but they also have one of the worst defenses in the league. Four projected starters are out for Brooklyn tonight, so even though this game is outside Indiana, the Pacers will have plenty of opportunity to score against this backup defense. Jalen Slawson projects a solid value choice here, too.