Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS. These playoff games have been a bit more interesting than expected, with a pair of 1-1 series matchups tonight.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. There are only three games today, and with usage condensing in the playoffs, you’ll have to get a bit creative.
In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
Nikola Jokic (C – DEN)
- DraftKings: $12,700
- FanDuel: $12,500
I know, I know. You’re shocked I have Nikola Jokic at the top again. But there’s a reason this feels obvious. Denver lost Game 2 at home, and the Timberwolves are believing in themselves now. Jokic is going to be asked to do everything to keep this from spiraling into a 1-2 series hole.
Jokic is projected for over 60 fantasy points, which is around 15-20 more than the next closest player on the slate. On a three-game build, you simply cannot pass on a raw point projection like that. Even with Minnesota throwing everybody in their frontcourt at him, Jokic has played over 30 minutes in both games, and his usage has stayed elevated.
Jokic is the type of player who responds to losses with monster nights, and at near-identical pricing across both sites, I’m comfortable being heavy on him in cash games and most of my GPP builds. For what it’s worth, I also like Jamal Murray today. We’ll get to a good amount of Denver-Minnesota players with the game featuring the highest total of the slate.
Julius Randle (PF – MIN)
- DraftKings: $7,200
- FanDuel: $7,900
Julius Randle quietly has been one of the most reliable players of the postseason. He’s projected for around 33-34 fantasy points, and he’s well within range of pushing 40 if Minnesota wants to keep this thing rolling.
The matchup against Denver is exactly the type of spot Randle thrives in because the Nuggets struggle to defend bully-ball power forwards who can step out and shoot, scoring 24 points across 36 minutes in Game 2.
What I love about Randle here is his price. He feels like a steal for someone playing 35+ minutes in a pace-up environment with this high of total. If Anthony Edwards’ knee acts up at all, Randle’s usage spikes even more, which gives him an even bigger boost
Jalen Brunson (PG – NYK)
- DraftKings: $8,500
- FanDuel: $8,900
The Knicks lost Game 2 at home and now have to go to Atlanta with the series tied. That’s not a good place for New York to be, but it’s a great place for Jalen Brunson to be in DFS. He’s already shown he can post 47 fantasy points in this series, and he’s now in a clear bounce-back spot where the team is going to lean on him heavily.
The Knicks guard has commanded an average 37% usage rate in the first two playoff matches, which offers a remarkable floor for his 35+ expected minutes. Brunson is projected for around 40 fantasy points, but his ceiling is north of 55 in a competitive game. Atlanta plays at a fast pace and isn’t elite at slowing down lead guards, so Brunson is going to get his looks.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
OG Anunoby (PF – NYK)
- DraftKings: $5,900
- FanDuel: $6,600
OG Anunoby has been the perfect cash play this entire series. He’s gone over 30 fantasy points in both playoff games, he’s playing 38 minutes a night and he’s priced like a value piece on both sites. There’s no reason to overthink this.
Anunoby fits in every build, he’s safe and he gives you a real shot at 35+ fantasy points without breaking the bank. The Hawks’ defense is a step-up in class, but the pace-up spot still makes it a friendlier matchup. On a three-game slate in the playoffs, it’s hard to find a better option at his price tag. At less than $6,000 on DraftKings, Anunoby is one of the easiest checks of the night.
Karl-Anthony Towns (PF, C – NYK)
- DraftKings: $8,400
- FanDuel: $8,600
I feel like a broken record, but I’m going right back to another Knick here with Karl-Anthony Towns. He is coming off an off night after getting to nearly 50 DraftKings points to open the series. I’m expecting more than his 35-point performance on Monday.
Atlanta doesn’t have a center who can match Towns’ offensive skill set, and we’ve already seen him pour in points. He’s projected for right around 38 fantasy points, but I think his ceiling here is closer to 50 if he can get back to his double-double ways.
Pairing Towns with Jalen Brunson is one of the cleaner stacks on the slate, especially in cash games, where you want game environments that produce reliable raw production.
Evan Mobley (PF, C – CLE)
- DraftKings: $7,600
- FanDuel: $8,000
Evan Mobley lived here all year, and we’re going right back to the well. Cleveland is up 2-0, and Mobley has been a huge reason why. He’s projected for 36 fantasy points and is one of the most consistent floor plays at the position.
The Raptors don’t have a great answer for Mobley at the rim, and Toronto’s frontcourt isn’t deep enough to throw multiple looks at him without giving up something elsewhere.
Mobley also gives you defensive upside with steals and blocks, which always helps push his ceiling. We’ve seen the USC product get up to $9,000 before, so getting him at $7,600 feels like a steal, even on a smaller slate. In cash games, he’s an easy click, even with Donovan Mitchell and James Harden in tow.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
Jalen Johnson (PF, SF – ATL)
- DraftKings: $9,200
- FanDuel: $9,200
Jalen Johnson is one of the more underrated leverage plays on this slate. After a relatively quiet series so far, I only imagine his rostership to continue falling against the slowest team post All-Star break in the Knicks. That’s a gift for GPPs.
We’ve seen Johnson get to 70 fantasy points in single games this season, and his ceiling on a three-game slate is enormous. He plays huge minutes, he stuffs the stat sheet and the Knicks aren’t a great matchup on paper, but Johnson has the athleticism to bully through it.
Johnson should bounce back here and is capable of taking over. He took 19 shots in Game 1, so the opportunity is there. Johnson is well capable of putting it all together and going over 50 fantasy points tonight.
Anthony Edwards (SG, SF – MIN)
- DraftKings: $8,800
- FanDuel: $9,500
Anthony Edwards is questionable for Game 3 with the same knee maintenance tag he carried into the first two games, but he’s expected to play. There’s a chance the questionable tag limits his rostership a bit while his projection stays around 45+ fantasy points.
Edwards has gone over 49 fantasy points in both games this slate, and you can argue he’s still not at full strength. If Minnesota wants to take this series back to Denver with a 2-1 lead, Edwards is going to have to take over. The injury angle, the elite usage and the ceiling make him one of my favorite tournament plays, even with a healthy rostership projection.
Scottie Barnes (PF, SF – TOR)
- DraftKings: $8,100
- FanDuel: $8,800
Toronto is down 2-0 and going home, which puts Scottie Barnes in a true must-perform spot. He’s projected for around 38 fantasy points, but his ceiling is well over 50 because of how often he hits across all categories.
Cleveland has been focused on taking away Toronto’s perimeter shooting, which has actually opened things up for Barnes to operate in the middle of the floor. If the Raptors are going to make this a series, Barnes has to be the engine. This one feels like more of a stretch with how things are going, but on a smaller slate with larger GPP contests, anything is possible.
I expect Barnes’ usage and minutes to both bump up at home. At his current pricing, the upside is well worth a tournament click.
NBA DFS Value Plays
Ayo Dosunmu (SG, SF, PG – MIN)
- DraftKings: $5,000
- FanDuel: $4,600
Ayo Dosunmu has carved out a real role in this Minnesota rotation, especially with Anthony Edwards working through the knee issue. He’s projected for around 25 fantasy points, and his FanDuel price is too low at $4,600.
If Edwards is limited at all, Dosunmu’s minutes and usage both bump up, and we’ve already seen him be a steady contributor in this series. His guard-forward status only helps his roster-ability. He’s the type of value piece that lets you fit high-priced studs in the same lineup without sacrificing elsewhere.
Christian Braun (SG, SF – DEN)
- DraftKings: $4,900
- FanDuel: $5,200
Christian Braun is exactly the type of value you target on a small playoff slate. He’s playing 35+ minutes for Denver. He’s contributing across the board. And he’s projected for over 25 fantasy points at sub-$5,000 pricing.
The Nuggets need someone outside of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray to step up after their Game 2 loss, and Braun has been that player more often than not. The matchup is a little tougher because Minnesota defends well on the wings, but Braun has shown he can produce against quality defenses. He’s a solid plug-and-play across formats.
Onyeka Okongwu (C, PF – ATL)
- DraftKings: $5,900
- FanDuel: $6,800
In terms of pure return on investment (ROI) value, it’s hard to find a smash spot with a smaller slate and not as many question marks for injuries. Onyeka Okongwu is the value center I keep coming back to. He’s projected for around 30 fantasy points at sub-$6,000 on DraftKings, and he’s seeing meaningful minutes against a Knicks team that he can manage, despite the pace-down spot.
Okongwu pairs well with the Atlanta GPP plays since you can stack the Hawks if you think this game gets out of hand. He’s not flashy, but he gives you a steady 25-30 fantasy points and frees up salary elsewhere. On a three-game slate where every dollar counts, that’s all I need from a value piece at center.