Josh Shepardson | Thu, May 14th 2026, 5:26am EDT

MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Thursday (5/14)

Thursday’s MLB DFS main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel are matinee affairs, with seven games starting at 12:35 p.m. ET. The Underdog pick’em props are also from the afternoon’s games.

Thursday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (5/14)

Nolan McLean (SP – NYM) vs. Detroit Tigers

Nolan McLean is dominating this year. According to FanGraphs, the 24-year-old righty has posted the following numbers in eight starts spanning 45.1 innings this season:

1 win
4 quality starts
2.78 ERA
2.33 xERA
2.52 xFIP
2.67 SIERA
0.90 WHIP
6.9% walk rate
32.6% strikeout rate
10.3% SwStr%
30.8% CSW%
108 stuff+
103 location+
116 pitching+

McLean has a mediocre matchup and favorable betting info. The Tigers are tied for 10th in wRC+ (105) with a 22.1% strikeout rate versus righties and 12th in wRC+ (98) with a 23% strikeout rate on the road in 2026. The Mets are -165 favorites, and the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.

Chase Burns (SP – CIN) vs. Washington Nationals

Chase Burns, like McLean, is having a fantastic season. Cincinnati’s righty has tallied the following numbers in eight starts, totaling 47 innings, this year:

4 wins
5 quality starts
2.11 ERA
3.12 xERA
3.47 xFIP
3.59 SIERA
1.04 WHIP
8.7 BB%
26.1 K%
14.6 SwStr%
28.4 CSW%
111 stuff+
103 location+
114 pitching+

Burns has a mixed matchup and desirable betting info. The Nationals are 14th in wRC+ (102) with a 22% strikeout rate versus righties, but tied for fifth in wRC+ (107) with a 21.9% strikeout rate on the road this year. Nevertheless, the Reds are -160 favorites, and the game’s total is eight runs.

Carmen Mlodzinski (SP – PIT) vs. Colorado Rockies

Carmen Mlodzinski has a juicy matchup and tantalizing betting info. The Rockies are 24th in wRC+ (94) with a 24.7% strikeout rate versus righties and 17th in wRC+ (90) with a 28.2% strikeout rate on the road this season. In addition, the Pirates are -190 favorites, and the game’s total is eight runs.

Mlodzinski isn’t a special pitcher, but he’s excelled at home. In 64 innings at home since last season, Mlodzinski has ripped off a 2.95 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, 6.7% walk rate and 24.1% strikeout rate. He’s not an enticing option on FanDuel, but he’s an outstanding SP2 in all game types on DraftKings this afternoon.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Home (Sutter Health Park)
Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/ATH -120

Michael McGreevy has been rather lucky this year. The righty’s 2.18 ERA doesn’t align with his 3.69 xFIP or 3.97 SIERA, and McGreevy’s 5.07 xERA is downright putrid.

Sutter Health Park is a hitter-friendly ballpark that can start the regression process tonight, and the Athletics have some quality hitters who can help drive it, too.

Home (Daiken Park)
Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/HOU +110

It appears Father Time has caught up to Luis Castillo in his age-33 campaign. The veteran righty has a 6.57 ERA, 5.76 xERA, 4.35 xFIP and 4.12 SIERA in eight starts in 2026. Lefties have teed off on Castillo for a .356 wOBA since last season.

Righties have had only a .280 wOBA against Castillo since last year, but Castillo has struggled mightily in same-handed matchups this year, permitting a .391 wOBA to 84 right-handed batters.

Castillo also has a wretched 5.22 ERA and 4.55 xFIP in 98.1 innings on the road since last season. The Astros have an opportunity to deliver the goods for DFS gamers who stack them today.

Core Studs

Nick Kurtz has clobbered 32 homers with a .442 on-base percentage (OBP), .341 ISO, .463 wOBA and 199 wRC+ in 460 plate appearances against righties since reaching the Majors last season.
Yordan Alvarez has launched 36 long-balls with a .383 OBP, .235 ISO, .376 wOBA and 146 wRC+ in 710 plate appearances against righties since 2024.
Sal Stewart has hit four homers with a .419 OBP, .400 ISO, .462 wOBA and 195 wRC+ in 43 plate appearances against lefties since reaching The Show last year.

Value Plays/Punts

Even with an uncharacteristically dreadful 2024 season against righties, J.P. Crawford has posted a 105 wRC+ in 1,255 plate appearances against them since 2024. That mark surges to a 113 wRC+ in 804 plate appearances against righties since 2025.
Zach Cole strikes out a ton, but he has legit power and speed. Cole has slugged six homers with a .304 OBP, .389 ISO, .407 wOBA and 164 wRC+ in 56 career plate appearances against righties since reaching the Majors last season.
Isaac Paredes has belted 33 bombs with a .344 OBP, .165 ISO, .331 wOBA and 116 wRC+ in 959 plate appearances against righties since 2024.

Thursday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Byron Buxton (OF – MIN): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher (0.80x Payout)

Byron Buxton has dominated with the platoon advantage. In 282 plate appearances against southpaws since 2024, Buxton has rattled off the following numbers:

73 hits (39 singles, 18 doubles, two triples, 14 homers)
.287 batting average
.351 OBP
.252 ISO
.375 wOBA
143 wRC+

Buxton is also having a big season at the dish this year, with 44 hits, including 15 homers, 33 runs, 23 RBI, a .260 batting average, .319 OBP, .320 ISO, .385 wOBA and 144 wRC+ in 40 games and 185 plate appearances.

Yordan Alvarez (OF – HOU): 7.5 Fantasy Points — Higher

Yordan Alvarez has piled up 13 homers, 27 runs, 29 RBI and a stolen base with a .418 OBP, .302 ISO, .435 wOBA and 179 wRC+ in 194 plate appearances this season.

Carlos Cortes (OF – ATH): 5.5 Fantasy Points — Higher

Carlos Cortes has been fantastic with the platoon advantage since reaching the Majors last season. In 192 plate appearances against righties since last season, Cortes has recorded eight homers, a .354 OBP, .232 ISO, .386 wOBA and 145 wRC+.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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