Today’s featured MLB DFS slate at DraftKings features six games, starting at 12:35 p.m. ET. Sadly, FanDuel’s main slate doesn’t match, but they have an early slate starting at 12:35 p.m. ET that features four of the same six games. So, the salaries in the forthcoming tables are from DK’s main slate and FD’s early, four-game slate. The Underdog pick’em picks are from the afternoon’s six contests. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB DFS picks.
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- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Thursday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (5/7)
Shota Imanaga (SP – CHC) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Shota Imanaga is comfortably the most appealing pitching selection on this afternoon’s pitching-poor slate. According to FanGraphs, the veteran lefty has recorded the following numbers in seven starts spanning 41.1 innings this season:
- 3 wins
- 4 quality starts
- 2.40 ERA
- 2.83 xERA
- 3.48 xFIP
- 3.37 SIERA
- 0.85 WHIP
- 6.3% walk rate
- 27% strikeout rate
- 14.7% SwStr%
- 27.7% CSW%
- 96 stuff+
- 108 location+
- 105 pitching+
The lefty has a DFS-friendly matchup and desirable betting info today. The Reds are tied for 19th in wRC+ (87) with a 26.5% strikeout rate versus lefties and tied for 26th in wRC+ (77) with a 24.5% strikeout rate on the road in 2026. In addition, the Cubs are -200 favorites, and the game’s total is 8.5 runs.
Mitch Keller (SP – PIT) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Mitch Keller is the most palatable modest-salaried SP2 option at DraftKings. His 2.85 ERA through seven starts spanning 41 innings has outkicked his 3.76 xERA, 3.97 xFIP and 4.29 SIERA. Nevertheless, his ERA estimators are adequate.
Keller’s matchup is mixed. On the plus side, the Diamondbacks are 24th in wRC+ (93) with a 23% strikeout rate versus righties this season. However, Arizona is seventh in wRC+ (118) with a 16.4% strikeout rate at home, which isn’t optimal for Keller’s outlook.
The Pirates are slight favorites (-112), and the game’s total is nine runs. There are enough positives in Keller’s profile to warrant using him.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
- Home (Wrigley Field)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/CHC -200
Rhett Lowder‘s 5.09 ERA is the third-highest among this afternoon’s probable starters, and his 4.57 xERA, 4.55 xFIP and 4.77 SIERA are also lackluster or worse.
The righty has yielded a .323 wOBA to 91 left-handed batters this year, making Chicago’s left-handed batters and switch-hitters appealing stacking options. The Reds also have a below-average bullpen, with the 10th-highest ERA (4.51) this year.
- Road (Kauffman Stadium)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/CLE +120
Seth Lugo has a 2.68 ERA this year, and he might be one of the more popular pitching selections on this pitching-poor slate. Instead of using him in DFS lineups, I prefer to leverage his popularity into a potentially contrarian stack in GPPs.
Lugo has coughed up a .351 wOBA to 468 left-handed batters since last year, and all nine of the Guardians’ projected starters are left-handed batters or switch-hitters.
Core Studs
- Among qualified hitters since 2024, Aaron Judge is first in wRC+ (229), first in wOBA (.495) and first in ISO (.436) against left-handed pitching.
- Moises Ballesteros has drilled eight dingers with a .382 on-base percentage (OBP), .237 ISO, .400 wOBA and 158 wRC+ in 152 plate appearances against righties since reaching the Majors last season.
- Chase DeLauter has recorded 15 runs, six homers, 23 RBI, a .391 OBP, .242 ISO, .410 wOBA and 161 wRC+ in 138 plate appearances in his rookie campaign.
Value Plays/Punts
- Brooks Lee went hitless in four plate appearances last night, but it was a rare hiccup for him lately. In his previous 50 plate appearances, Lee scored 10 runs with two homers, nine RBI, two stolen bases, a .400 OBP, .191 ISO, .419 wOBA and 165 wRC+.
- Matt Wallner has a .335 OBP, .255 ISO, .352 wOBA and 128 wRC+ in 588 plate appearances against righties since 2024.
- Michael Busch has tallied a .342 OBP, .236 ISO, .358 wOBA and 132 wRC+ against righties since 2024.
Thursday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Ian Happ (OF – CHC): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher
Ian Happ has amassed 33 hits (17 singles, six doubles, one triple and nine homers), 28 runs, 17 RBI, a .248 batting average, .379 OBP, .263 ISO, .388 wOBA and 149 wRC+ in 35 games across 161 plate appearances this season.
The switch-hitting outfielder has cleared 1.5 combined hits + runs + RBIs in three of his last five games and 19 times this year.
Moises Ballesteros (C – CHC): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher (0.88x Payout)
Moises Ballesteros has ripped off 26 hits (15 singles, five doubles and six homers), 14 runs, 18 RBI, a .292 batting average, .360 OBP, .258 ISO, .394 wOBA and 153 wRC+ in 33 games across 100 plate appearances this season.
Daylen Lile (OF – WSH): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher (0.79x Payout)
Daylen Lile has totaled 35 hits (23 singles, nine doubles and three homers), 24 runs, 14 RBI, a .243 batting average, .319 OBP, .125 ISO, .309 wOBA and 93 wRC+ in 160 plate appearances this year.
However, Lile is a handful for righties. Lile has 102 hits, a .293 batting average, .346 OBP, .204 ISO, .361 wOBA and 132 wRC+ in 382 career plate appearances against righties since reaching the Majors last season.
Lile has cleared 1.5 combined hits + runs + RBIs in back-to-back games.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.