Ted Chmyz | Sat, May 9th 2026, 7:13am EDT

Superflex Dynasty Rookie ADP Analysis: Tiers, Values & Sleepers (2026)

The NFL Draft still feels like it just happened, but tens of thousands of dynasty fantasy football leagues have already started (if not finished) their rookie drafts. If you’re in a dynasty league that hasn’t yet begun, these early drafts are a treasure trove of average draft position (ADP) data, and now is the perfect time for Superflex dynasty rookie ADP analysis. This is especially true this year, when a weak rookie class means there is no clear consensus on the order in which the NFL’s youngest players should be valued.

This article will take a look at early ADP trends in the first round of rookie drafts, breaking the top prospects into tiers based on where they usually go off the board. I’ll also give my takes on overvalued players to fade and undervalued rookies to target in your own drafts. That’s a lot to get through, so let’s get right to it.

Superflex Dynasty Rookie ADP Analysis

Tier 1: Jeremiyah Love

1.1 ADP: Jeremiyah Love (RB – ARI)

When I wrote this same article last year, we had a running back in a tier of his own at the top in Ashton Jeanty. Although the 2026 class is much weaker down the board than its predecessor, it can compete in Tier 1, as Jeremiyah Love is a similarly elite prospect to Jeanty (we seem to be getting a “generational” running back prospect every other year at this point). With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Love follows in Jeanty’s footsteps by forming a tier of his own at the top.

Love is ever so slightly more dominant than Jeanty. According to Dynasty Data Lab (which will be my source for all ADP data in this article), Love has been selected with the first overall pick in 97% of Superflex dynasty rookie drafts since the NFL Draft. Last year, managers passed on Jeanty 1% more often. Both the 4% of drafters last year and the 3% this year were making mistakes. Unless your league has some very unique settings, Love is the obvious best choice at 1.01.

Tier 2: Top-10 NFL Draft Picks

Along with Jeremiyah Love, these are the remaining three skill-position prospects who were selected in the first 10 picks of the 2026 NFL Draft. And they are also usually the next three players off the board in Superflex rookie drafts. None of the three makes it out of the first four picks more than a quarter of the time. Every other non-Love player is available at pick 1.05 at least 75% of the time.

Looking more closely at the data, there is an argument that Jordyn Tyson is in his own mini tier behind the other two. The new Saint is selected with exactly the fourth overall pick in nearly 50% of rookie drafts, and he is only selected at second overall 7% of the time. Carnell Tate and Fernando Mendoza have more similar ADP distributions, although Mendoza slides slightly more often.

However, I tend to agree with this tier. I would argue that Tyson has the best argument to be the 1.02 after Love. His college production profile was more impressive than Tate’s, and Mendoza isn’t a hugely inspiring prospect from the perspective of fantasy upside. You really can’t go wrong with anyone in this tier. Wherever possible, trade to 1.04 and select whichever of these three is left.

Tier 3: Price-y Lemons

5.1 ADP: Makai Lemon (WR – PHI)
5.5 ADP: Jadarian Price (RB – SEA)

I can only apologize for this tier’s nonsensical title, but it’s obvious that Maki Lemon and Jadarian Price are a pair in dynasty rookie drafts this season. Both sneak into the top four occasionally, but they remain available until pick 1.05 most of the time. But then they go quickly, with Price falling to pick 1.07 more often at just a 17% rate. Neither has reached pick 1.08 in more than a negligible number of drafts (<5%).

I disagree with the masses on this one. KC Concepcion deserves to be in this tier, as a comparable pick to both Lemon and Price. Obviously, Concepcion’s immediate situation in Cleveland leaves a lot to be desired, but his profile has tons of analytical green flags.

Price is the opposite: He has a dream situation with little competition in Seattle, but questions remain about his actual talent, given his low college workload (to be fair, he was in the same backfield as the aforementioned generational talent, Jeremiyah Love). Lemon lands in the middle, with an OK situation and a good-not-excellent profile, at least by the standards of first-round wideouts.

If you agree with me that this ADP-based tier is one player too small, the easiest way to take advantage is to pick at 1.07 as often as possible. Especially if you can trade down from one of the previous two picks to a manager who does view this duo as a tier unto themselves. You might be able to get real value while still walking away with a comparable prospect.

Tier 4: High-Upside Bets

7.7 ADP: KC Concepcion (WR – CLE)
7.7 ADP: Kenyon Sadiq (TE – NYJ)

KC Concepcion and Kenyon Sadiq have remarkably similar ADP profiles overall. Sadiq appears in the top five slightly more often (likely because of leagues with TE-Premium scoring), at 5%, compared to Concepcion’s 1%. But the gap between their availability never exceeds 7% at any pick, and they are both picked as either the 1.07 or the 1.08 the clear majority of the time.

As mentioned, I have Concepcion as a member of the previous tier in my personal Superflex rookie rankings. That leaves Sadiq in a tier of his own, which seems fair.

With historic athleticism and excellent draft capital, the former Oregon Duck’s path to elite upside is by far the clearest of any player left on the board at this point. Sadiq does have real bust risk, given that he didn’t produce as much as we might hope in college, but all the upcoming names have just as many red flags, if not more.

Tier 5: Locked-In First-Rounders

10.1 ADP: Omar Cooper Jr. (WR – NYJ)
10.2 ADP: Ty Simpson (QB – LAR)
10.7 ADP: Eli Stowers (TE – PHI)

These three names are the final three we can comfortably expect to be selected in the vast majority of first rounds in 12-team dynasty rookie drafts. Eli Stowers is most likely to fall into the second round, and even if he does, it only happens 15% of the time. But don’t expect to hear any of these names in the early first, either — they all survive to at least pick 1.09 in 80%+ of drafts.

Because of the weakness of this rookie class, these players are less exciting bets than those we normally find in the late first round. Omar Cooper Jr.’s profile is nothing special, and his landing spot in a crowded, ugly New York offense is unappealing.

Ty Simpson wasn’t considered a first-round NFL Draft talent by plenty of evaluators, and he seems doomed to spend at least a year or two on the bench behind the reigning NFL MVP. Stowers is the type of receiving-first/receiving-only tight end that comes with plenty of bust risk, and he also landed in a crowded situation in Philadelphia.

Unfortunately, there aren’t exactly any analytical gems or players with dream landing spots pushing to challenge this trio. Personally, I’d be a little lower on Stowers, moving him into the next tier. But it’s simply hard to argue with the real-life draft capital that Simpson and Cooper Jr. have on their sides.

It might not feel great, but I recommend sticking with ADP if you can’t find a trade partner for your late-ish first-round rookie pick this season.

Tier 6: Are These Rookies Really First-Round Picks?

12.6 ADP: Denzel Boston (WR – CLE)
12.8 ADP: Jonah Coleman (RB – DEN)

Although their ADPs are both above 12.0, Denzel Boston and Jonah Coleman have both been selected in the first round in over 40% of Superflex dynasty rookie drafts so far this offseason. They both sneak into the top 10 occasionally (12% and 16%), and neither makes it more than a few picks into the second round with any sort of regularity.

Boston and Coleman are indeed probably the best two players remaining on the board at this point, but that’s not saying much. Looking at last year’s class, they are comparable (if not worse) prospects in terms of profiles and draft capital to Jayden Higgins and Cam Skattebo. Higgins and Skattebo were middling second-round picks last year, with ADPs of 17.3 and 16.7, respectively.

With this in mind, don’t be afraid to get your guy as early as the final pick of the first round in rookie drafts this year. The difference between Boston and Coleman (and Eli Stowers, in my opinion) and Nicholas Singleton, Elijah Sarratt and De’Zhaun Stribling isn’t as big as you might think.

I wouldn’t even really fault a dynasty manager reaching all the way for someone like Kaelon Black (Kyle Shanahan eventually has to hit on a huge running back reach) or Eli Raridon (my personal favorite sleeper in this class) in the early second round. Or, even better, sell your late firsts or early seconds for comparable picks in future years. This section of the draft is really where the weakness of this class is most pronounced.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.

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