When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and which to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football running backs who may be overvalued.
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2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Overvalued Running Backs to Avoid
Derek Brown shares four running backs he feels are overvalued in early fantasy football drafts.
TreVeyon Henderson (NE)
TreVeyon Henderson finished his rookie season as the RB24 in fantasy points per game, but it wasn’t nearly that productive for fantasy managers when you look at the full breakdown of how it unfolded. In Weeks 10-11, Rhamondre Stevenson wasn’t active, and Henderson feasted with 60.3 combined PPR points, which accounted for 29.2% of his overall fantasy production for the season. If you take those two monster games out of the equation, Henderson would have averaged 9.8 PPR points per game, which would have made him the RB33 in fantasy points per game. Without Stevenson in the lineup in Weeks 9-11, Henderson averaged 19 touches and 110 total yards. With Stevenson active, Henderson had 11.2 touches and 57.2 total yards per game. This isn’t to shade Henderson, but I’m trying to give context to his rookie season that will be overlooked at first glance. I don’t know how Henderson overtakes Stevenson in 2026 if both of these players continue to post per-touch efficiency metrics like they did last season. Last year, Henderson was bested by Stevenson in every metric that I care about, namely explosive run rate, missed tackle rate, yards after contact per attempt, yards per route run, and pass protection stats. Among 49 qualifying backs, Henderson ranked 12th in explosive run rate, but he was also 32nd in missed tackle rate and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Henderson could eat into Stevenson’s workload more in 2026 if he can take another step and payoff as an RB2, but he’s best viewed as an upside RB3.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR)
Chuba Hubbard followed up his big breakout 2024 season with a stinker in 2025. Last year, Chuba Hubbard fell apart as the RB40 in fantasy points per game. Yes, he dealt with a calf injury for part of the season, but he also lost his starting job during the season to Rico Dowdle. Hubbard was arguably the most inefficient running back in the NFL last year. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked dead last in missed tackle rate and explosive run rate (zero explosive runs) while also sitting at 47th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If Jonathon Brooks is fully healthy (I think he will be), he could easily be the backfield leader coming out of camp. I’ll be avoiding Hubbard in drafts this year.
Bucky Irving (TB)
Bucky Irving has dealt with a number of injuries in his short career with a foot sprain and a shoulder/ AC joint sprain last year. Rewinding to 2024, he also dealt with hip, back, toe, and hamstring issues. When he was on the field last year, he averaged 20.3 touches and 86.5 total yards as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. His efficiency suffered massively from the injuries last year after being a wonderous per-touch monster in 2024. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, he was 43rd in explosive run rate, 35th in missed tackle rate, and 46th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Those dips are explainable, but they are still concerning for a back that is on the smaller side and has been banged up quite often over the last two seasons. Yes, Rachaad White is gone, but Irving will still have to contend with Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker this season on early downs and in the passing game. Irving could be a nice bounce-back candidate in 2026 or a massive disappointment that loses work to Gainwell and Tucker all year. I’ll buy the dip if he slips in some drafts, but I won’t go out of my way to draft him this season.
RJ Harvey (DEN)
R.J. Harvey’s rookie season was a tale of two seasons centered around J.K. Dobbins being in the lineup and out of it. In Weeks 1-10, Harvey was the RB29 in fantasy points per game, averaging 29.1% of the snaps played with 7.5 touches and 38.9 total yards per game. In Weeks 11-18, with Dobbins out, he was the RB13 in fantasy points per game with 16.8 touches and 72.5 total yards per game while averaging 60.7% of the snaps played. With Dobbins back and Denver drafting Jonah Coleman, Harvey’s role is up in the air. He could easily fall back into last year’s early-season role as a passing-down partner with Dobbins, or this backfield could get messy with all three backs playing and the production getting divided up. Harvey was awesome overall last season as a receiving option, but he struggled on early downs. As a pass catcher, he ranked sixth in target per route run rate and first downs per route run and tenth in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). As a rusher, among 49 qualifying backs, he was 21st in missed tackle rate but 42nd in explosive run rate and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. Harvey is a decent selection in fantasy drafts this season, but in 2026, I won’t go out of my way to get him on all my teams like last year.
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Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Check out the consensus 2026 fantasy football draft rankings from our experts.
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