Fantasy baseball trade season is all about identifying players whose value doesn’t quite match their production. Sometimes the market is too focused on surface stats. Other times, managers are holding onto breakout stories that may be starting to cool off.
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Fantasy Baseball Players to Buy Low or Sell High (Week 10)
Based on this week’s discussion from Fantasy Bros MLB, there are two players worth targeting in trades and two others who may be good candidates to shop before their value slips.
Jesus Luzardo (SP – PHI)
Luzardo’s season-long numbers don’t fully reflect how well he has pitched lately.
After posting a 4.80 ERA in April, Luzardo turned things around in May with a 3.07 ERA across six starts. While his overall ERA still sits at 4.30, the underlying indicators suggest there has been some bad luck mixed into the profile.
The most appealing part of Luzardo’s fantasy profile remains the strikeout production. He has piled up 78 strikeouts against just 19 walks, giving fantasy managers a strong foundation in one of the most important pitching categories.
The advanced metrics highlighted in the podcast paint an even better picture. His expected ERA sits at 3.14, while both his FIP and expected FIP are below 3.00. Those numbers suggest Luzardo has pitched significantly better than his current ERA indicates.
This isn’t necessarily a buy-low opportunity. His recent success has already caught the attention of fantasy managers. Still, if another manager remains frustrated by the inconsistent results or remembers the rough April, there may be an opportunity to acquire a pitcher whose rest-of-season outlook looks stronger than his current stat line suggests.
Jackson Merrill (OF – SD)
Few players have seen their fantasy perception shift as dramatically as Merrill.
Despite entering the season with high expectations, the conversation around him has become increasingly negative. Much of that stems from a disappointing batting average and concerns about whether he could maintain his offensive growth.
The podcast’s argument for buying Merrill centers on the idea that several of his current struggles simply don’t look sustainable.
He’s currently pacing toward nearly 30 stolen bases after already collecting 10 steals, and many of the underlying indicators remain encouraging. His barrel rate remains in double digits, he’s hitting the ball harder than before, and he’s drawing more walks. Meanwhile, his expected batting average exceeds his actual batting average across every pitch type.
There is also skepticism that Merrill will continue hitting around .200 against right-handed pitching or remain below .200 on the road. The expectation is that positive regression could help lift his overall production.
Even while struggling, Merrill has still produced five home runs and 10 stolen bases. If the batting average rebounds closer to expectations, fantasy managers could be looking at a much more valuable player in the second half.
Chase DeLauter (OF, DH – CLE)
DeLauter rewarded fantasy managers early in the season, but there are signs that his breakout may be slowing down.
The overall numbers still look strong. Through his first 56 games, he produced seven home runs, a .268 batting average, and an impressive 25-to-25 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Those results helped validate the optimism surrounding a former top prospect whose development was delayed by injuries.
The concern is what has happened more recently.
Over his last 26 games, DeLauter has hit just two home runs, while both his batting average and slugging percentage have declined. The podcast discussion suggested that opposing pitchers may have started making adjustments after his strong April.
The underlying quality-of-contact metrics also raise some questions. His barrel rate was described as low, and his hard-hit rate sits below the 50th percentile. While there is still confidence in his ability to hit for average, the power output remains less convincing.
The recommendation isn’t to dump DeLauter. Instead, this may be an ideal window to test the market. Managers who believe in the prospect pedigree could still be willing to pay a premium based on age, upside, and his strong overall season numbers.
Jacob deGrom (SP – TEX)
Few names carry more trade value than deGrom, which is exactly why he was highlighted as a potential sell.
The concern starts with a rough May. Across five starts, deGrom posted a 5.72 ERA while allowing 18 earned runs. Although the strikeout and walk numbers remain solid, the results have clearly moved in the wrong direction.
There are also several trends that create uncertainty moving forward.
His ground-ball rate has dropped significantly from last season, while the amount of barreled contact allowed has increased. The podcast also noted that his expected ERA is one of the highest marks of his career.
Another issue is the split between home and road performance. At home, deGrom has been dominant. On the road, the results have been dramatically worse, creating additional volatility for fantasy managers, especially in head-to-head formats.
Perhaps the strongest fantasy argument for selling is that deGrom still carries elite-name value. If another manager views him as a top-tier fantasy ace, there may be an opportunity to turn him into multiple pieces that provide more overall roster value.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
- Buy Jesus Luzardo if you’re looking for strikeouts and believe the underlying metrics will continue to support better run prevention.
- Buy Jackson Merrill if your league mates are overly focused on his batting average struggles and ignoring the stolen-base production and encouraging expected numbers.
- Consider shopping Chase DeLauter while his season-long numbers still look strong despite a prolonged slowdown.
- Explore trade offers for Jacob deGrom if another manager values him as a fantasy ace and is willing to pay a premium.
- The common theme: target players whose underlying indicators look stronger than their surface stats, and sell players whose recent trends may be creating more risk than the market realizes.
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Ben Rosener is a fantasy baseball writer whose work has appeared on the digital pages of FantasyPros, Pitcher List and Bleacher Report. He also writes weekly fantasy baseball columns and provides weekly dynasty (top 700) and redraft (top 500) rankings updates for his own Substack page, Ben Rosener’s Fantasy Baseball Help Substack. He only refers to himself in the third person for bios.
