8 IDP Busts (2026 Fantasy Football)

The 2026 fantasy football season is fast approaching, and as managers fine-tune their cheat sheets, gaining a better understanding of projected roles and any changes to them is critical. It is also important to gauge players coming off career seasons as potential risks, as paying for ceiling is rarely a recommended strategy as far as IDP drafting is concerned. Let’s take a look at a few players who may disappoint relative to expectations this season.

8 IDP Busts (2026 Fantasy Football)

Caleb Downs (S – DAL)

I do not like including rookies on this list, and role uncertainty is often one of the biggest reasons why. Downs is slated to play nickel back, but should have enough snaps at or near the box to still make him a solid flex option. That said, his role will limit his upside and keep him in the DB3/4 range as opposed to the DB2 range he is frequently going off the board in. We have seen a number of players still produce in the slot, but this is not ideal for a rookie defensive back commonly going off the board as a top 15-25 safety (depending on platform). He should eventually be handed a valuable IDP role, but that may not come until 2027 or later when the Cowboys find someone who can be close to as effective in the slot.

Andre Cisco (S – NYJ)

Based on initial depth charts, most of us thought that it would be incumbent veteran Andre Cisco who sent late season IDP breakout Malachi Moore back to the bench for the New York Jets. However, with the preseason underway, it appears that Dane Belton, and not Cisco, is currently on track to win the starting safety job alongside Minkah Fitzpatrick. If Cisco does not win the job, he could be traded or waived, as Malachi Moore is on a rookie deal and proved that he is more than capable of being a competent depth option with starter upside when Cisco was lost for the season last year. Cisco has a small enough contract that he could be a valued trade piece and could also fortify the depth at an important position. If he stays on the Jets, however, Cisco can safely be ignored outside of 32-team leagues.

Brian Burns (DE – NYG)

Brian Burns is actually one of my favorite pass rushers, but there is some rational concern with him moving to the strong side. Abdul Carter will man the weak side, which will give Burns the tougher weekly assignments (in most matchups) against the left tackle. Last season, only 3.0 of his 16.5 sacks last season came from the strong side. Over his career, only 14.5 of his 71 career sacks have come against left tackles. Burns should still be viewed as a DL1 option, but threatening 16.5 again may not be in the cards for a player who is shifting alignment and has hit double-digit sacks just twice in his career.

Montez Sweat (DL – CHI)

Montez Sweat was excellent in 2025, racking up 10.0 sacks, 48 pressures, and leading the league in pressure-to-turnover impact. He added three forced fumbles. So why does he appear on this list? After logging the second double-digit sack campaign of his career (and second in three seasons), opposing offensive coordinators are going to commit more help to attempt to slow Sweat’s defensive impact. The Bears have no one else in their front that inspires fear on the enemy offensive line, so while his pressures should remain relatively safe, we could see some sack regression. Add to that his low tackle counts, and he becomes more of a boom-or-bust play than others often targeted in the same range.

Tuli Tuipolutu (DL – LAC)

I love Tuli as a pass rusher and did not want to include him on this list as I believe he is an ascending edge who can see his role expand. However, there are some red flags to note, namely that half of his fantasy production last season came in just three games. He recorded a sack in just seven of his 16 contests, which is the lowest clip among the elite sack producers from last season. His week-to-week tackle count is also inconsistent, namely because he comes off the field in obvious running situations. There is a realm of possibility where he gets better at defending the run, but the Chargers will not want it to come at the expense of the natural instincts and aggression that helped lead Tuipolutu to 13.0 sacks despite leaving the field in some running situations. He still plays enough snaps for another double-digit sack season, but expectations should be tempered vis-a-vis other competing DL1 options.

Devin White (LB – DET)

I’ll be the first to admit, I was excited when I first saw/heard the news of Devin White signing with the Detroit Lions earlier this month. My first thought was he is stepping into the Alex Anzalone role and should thrive as a top-25 option with weekly LB1 upside. Then I remembered that a team like Detroit likely does not want him on the field on obvious passing downs. White has struggled in coverage since his time in Tampa but is good enough at the rest of his duties that he still gets heavy run in most places. However, the Detroit Lions are expected to shift to Derrick Barnes over White on some, if not all, passing situations. Add to that Jimmy Rolder, who is currently listed as Jack Campbell’s backup, may impress enough and do enough cross-training when he is healthy to eat into White and Barnes’ snaps, and we have the recipe for a disappointing season. White was the LB3 last season behind only Jordyn Brooks and teammate Jack Campbell, but with a drastic reduction in snap share, he falls to the flex2 realm at best unless his role changes in-season.

Leo Chenal (LB – WAS)

Leo Chenal appears stuck in a part-time role for at least one more season. The Commanders are already experimenting with Sonny Styles wearing the green dot, and Frankie Luvu will be the preferred back in nickel packages. Add to that their seeking to utilize big dime looks (three safeties, three corners, one linebacker) with Sonny Styles as the playcaller, and Chenal may even drop back below the 40 percent snap share mark. He is safe to ignore outside of 32-team leagues.

Tyrel Dodson (LB – MIA)

Tyrel Dodson is penciled in as a starter for the Miami Dolphins alongside Jordyn Brooks, but his grip on the starting role is tenuous at best (though the same should be said about Jordyn Brooks, although he will have a much longer leash due to his new contract). Dodson has multiple rookies who will either push him for snaps or push him for his starting role altogether. Jacob Rodbriguez, is the biggest threat to Dodson’s playing time, as the rookie is expected to supplant Dodson as a starter at some point this season. This may seem obvious to some, but not everyone follows the NFL Draft as others may do. Rookie Trey Moore is listed as the starting strong side backer and is much better in coverage than Dodson, which could allow the Dolphins to run nickel sets with Brooks and Moore. Finally, Kyle Louis, who is also a rookie, is listed as Brooks’ direct backup.

As noted above, Brooks also struggles in coverage, so there is a world where, despite being Brooks’ backup, Louis is on the field with Brooks on some passing downs over Dodson. Louis is considered the top coverage linebacker on the team, with Rodriguez second, and Moore third. Both Dodson and Brooks are liabilities in coverage, which is part of the reason the Dolphins trio was so sought after in dynasty leagues this offseason. Suffice it to say that Dodson, despite his excellent IDP production last season, is someone to target as bench depth only. Don’t spend a roster spot on him if you can avoid it.