With the trade deadline just days away, we broke down the biggest names likely to move, the teams most likely to make it happen, and what it all means for fantasy baseball rosters the rest of the way.
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Fantasy Baseball: MLB Trade Deadline Preview & Impact (2026)
Tarik Skubal (SP – DET)
A trade now looks close to inevitable. The only real path to Skubal staying in Detroit is a weak enough American League landscape that the Tigers stay within striking distance of a playoff spot and get cold feet if offers aren’t overwhelming. Even so, the guest analyst puts the odds at 80-20 in favor of a trade, calling Skubal potentially the largest true rental available since the Milwaukee Brewers traded for CC Sabathia back in 2008. The Tigers already have a strong young core in place, and holding onto Skubal risks pushing back their contention timeline compared to what a well-constructed return package could bring in immediately.
Buyers only get roughly ten more starts out of him, and he’s still owed ten million dollars for the rest of the season on top of whatever prospect package it takes to acquire him. Historically, though, similar rental-ace trades, including past deals involving Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, and Yu Darvish, have rarely paid off for the acquiring team on the return side, suggesting teams shouldn’t hesitate to be aggressive here. Several teams have been connected, including the Rays, Brewers, Phillies, and Cubs, but the expectation is that the Dodgers ultimately land him. Los Angeles has a genuine rotation need given injury absences to several key starters, the financial flexibility to cover his remaining salary, and a farm system deep enough to meet Detroit’s asking price. Skubal has also reportedly been connected to the Dodgers as a preferred future free agent landing spot regardless of where he lands this summer, adding to the belief that a trade there could turn into a longer-term fit.
Joe Ryan (SP – MIN)
Unlike his more famous counterpart in Detroit, Ryan is expected to stay put. The Twins conducted a partial teardown last year, trading away multiple relievers and starters, but this year’s front office has publicly stated the team is buying, backed up by an actual trade for bullpen help using real prospect capital rather than a minor challenge trade. The case for buying is strong: Minnesota quietly leads the American League in runs scored, and several young starting pitchers have taken real steps forward in the second half, giving the rotation legitimate depth beyond Ryan himself. With the offense and rotation both already strengths, the clearest remaining need is bullpen depth, typically the cheapest and easiest area to address at a deadline. The guest analyst is bullish enough on this team’s overall outlook in a weak division that he personally bet on Minnesota to win the AL Central as soon as the buyer reports surfaced.
Mason Miller (RP – SD)
Miller’s market has been genuinely hard to read. Reports have swung from the team’s front office being open to listening, to demanding an enormous package of multiple top-100 caliber prospects, to more recent suggestions he’s unlikely to be moved at all. The lesson from watching this specific front office over the years: never speak in absolutes about what it will or won’t do, given a track record of aggressive, unpredictable moves even from below-.500 records in the past. A move to a team like the Twins looks unlikely given how significant a swing an acquisition like this would represent, more fitting for a team already positioned at the top of its division.
Padres Trade Outlook
San Diego’s roster sits right around .500 despite looking strong on paper, with real offensive firepower and bullpen depth held back by rotation questions and some underperforming individual pieces. With so many starting pitchers available across the league this deadline, a modest rotation upgrade likely wouldn’t require an enormous prospect package, though this front office’s unpredictable history means a bigger swing can’t be ruled out either. Much of the roster looks difficult to meaningfully upgrade externally anyway, since several key hitters have already started performing better recently, suggesting the bigger need may simply be internal improvement rather than external additions.
Neto currently ranks sixth on a notable national trade-candidates board, and his season has been genuinely strange. His counting stats look strong, with 19 home runs, 73 runs, and 14 stolen bases, but his underlying numbers have moved in a concerning direction: his strikeout rate has climbed well past his already-high mark from a year ago, his walk rate has also risen despite a career norm far lower, and his average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate have all declined while his chase rate has increased. His defensive metrics have dropped significantly too. The team’s new front office has already stated it’s open for business, and an earlier trade sending established players away for a very young, low-level prospect is viewed as a clear signal of a step-back approach.
One theory offered for the statistical decline: Neto may simply be selling out for power on a non-competitive team, evidenced by a more aggressive two-strike approach and a rising swing rate. With so many teams currently needing right-handed hitting and shortstop help, real belief exists that a strong offer eventually gets made. He’s viewed as arguably the best offensive bat truly available on the market this deadline, with one possible exception depending on how a specific Rockies power hitter’s own trade market develops.
Mike Trout (OF – LAA)
A trade is considered extremely unlikely. Moving Trout would look bad optically for the franchise, no team would want to absorb the full remaining value of his contract, and he remains a significant enough draw on his own to matter for attendance. There’s some nostalgia for the idea of a true one-franchise career in an era where that’s become increasingly rare across major sports, but a championship opportunity for Trout in Anaheim doesn’t look realistic in the near term.
Freddy Peralta (SP – MIL)
Peralta’s season ranks among the strangest in recent memory. Entering the year, there was already some skepticism about whether his prior season’s strong results were fully supported by the underlying skill indicators, but this year’s decline has gone well beyond that skepticism, with his ERA and WHIP both ballooning and his strikeout rate falling by roughly six percentage points. A trade appears close to imminent, reinforced by a recent scratch from his scheduled start, and he’s given the highest odds of any player discussed on the show, 95-5 in favor of a trade. His team is viewed as one of the clearer sellers at this year’s deadline, with a front office regarded as particularly skilled at extracting value in exactly this kind of selling scenario.
There’s genuine uncertainty about whether this decline is real or correctable, especially given he’s still only 30 years old with a long track record of being a quality starter. There’s real speculative interest in a reunion with his original organization in Milwaukee, a familiar situation given that team’s recent track record of similar buy-low reclamation trades.
Emerson Hancock (SP – SEA)
Hancock’s home-road splits raise a real question for acquiring teams. His ERA differential between home and road starts is fairly modest, but his strikeout rate gap is much larger, raising the question of whether buyers should value him closer to his road-level performance. The counterargument: this is a genuinely different pitcher than in past seasons following a mechanical arm slot change, and his organization has a broader track record of pitchers posting significant home-road splits, suggesting that context is unlikely to scare off serious suitors. He carries real long-term pedigree too, having been a well-regarded first-round college pitcher before a down stretch preceded this year’s breakout.
His team is viewed as extremely well positioned to make this trade given a deep surplus of upper-level pitching prospects in the system, including one particularly well-regarded arm believed to be among the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. With Hancock’s likely departure and real uncertainty about how much longer a veteran incumbent starter holds his rotation spot, the team’s top pitching prospects are viewed as real fantasy stashes worth monitoring closely.
Jeremy Pena (SS – HOU), Hunter Goodman (C – COL), and Hunter Greene (SP – CIN)
Pena is considered highly unlikely to be traded. His team’s front office has already stated it’s buying, sitting just half a game back in its division with a clear pitching need, and there’s no expectation the team moves a star-level position player as part of addressing that need.
Goodman’s team is a clear seller, but the asking price attached to him is viewed as unrealistically steep, reportedly seeking a premium, top-tier prospect in return. Given how high that price is set, a trade meeting those terms is viewed as unlikely, even though both analysts are personally fond of Goodman as a player.
Greene is described in national reporting as close to a true coin flip to be traded, with real interest already reported from other teams and a steep asking price expected if a deal happens. A speculative fit is floated with a team known to have a strong farm system and a clear need for a frontline starter after likely missing out on this year’s top rental arm, aided by Greene’s relatively favorable contract situation with multiple additional years of team control remaining. On balance, a trade still looks more likely not to happen than to happen, but Greene is viewed as more likely to move than several of the other more speculative names discussed on the show.
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