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Who Should I Draft?

Aaron Nola or Luis Castillo (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Expert
Recommendation
88%
Recommended by
45 of 51 experts
12%
Recommended by
6 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 8# 11
Best Rank# 3# 6
Worst Rank# 13# 17
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 22# 27
Best Rank# 22# 24
Worst Rank# 25# 38
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts222216
Wins1313
Saves00
ERA3.563.52
WHIP1.171.18
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 7# 8
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 8# 12
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 9# 14
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 5# 11
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 9# 14
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 7# 12
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 7# 12
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 7# 15
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 10# 12
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 7# 11
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 9# 10
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 8# 11
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 6# 11
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 8# 12
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 6# 10
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 8# 11
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 7# 12
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 7# 10
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 7# 14
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 6# 13
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 7# 8
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 6# 14
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 7# 8
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 8# 11
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 7# 11
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 3# 7
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 9# 10
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 4# 6
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 7# 11
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 8# 9
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 7# 10
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 7# 8
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 12# 17
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 7# 13
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 6# 7
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 4# 9
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 9# 14
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 10# 13
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 7# 8
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 7# 12
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 9# 13
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 8# 10
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 5# 8
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 8# 13
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 12# 15
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 8# 6
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 9# 7
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 9# 8
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 11# 8
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 12# 9
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 13# 11
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1212
   
Games Started1212
   
Innings Pitched71.270.1
   
Wins54
   
Losses56
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed5462
   
Earned Runs2626
   
Home Runs Allowed95
   
Strikeouts9689
   
Walks2324
   
ERA3.283.34
   
WHIP1.081.23
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3131
   
Games Started3131
   
Innings Pitched190.0183.9
   
Wins1313
   
Losses99
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed161154
   
Earned Runs7572
   
Home Runs Allowed2421
   
Strikeouts222216
   
Walks6063
   
ERA3.563.52
   
WHIP1.171.18
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
News 
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed six earned runs on six hits and one walk while striking out eight over six innings in Thursday's win over the Pirates.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Fri, Sep 24th
Luis Castillo (8-16) took the loss Thursday against the Nationals, allowing two runs on three hits across six innings. He walked three and struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 23rd
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on six hits and no walks while striking out six over five innings in Tuesday's loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, Sep 8th
Luis Castillo (8-15) earned the win Friday against the Dodgers, tossing six shutout innings while allowing five hits and two walks. He struck out 10.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Sep 17th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed six earned runs on six hits and two walks while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Thursday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Fri, Sep 3rd
Luis Castillo did not factor into the decision in Saturday's loss to the Cardinals, allowing four runs on eight hits across seven innings. He walked one and struck out five.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed two earned runs on three hits and no walks while striking out seven over 5 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Friday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Sat, Aug 28th
Luis Castillo (7-15) was saddled with his league-leading 15th loss Sunday against the Tigers, allowing three runs (one earned) on four hits in six innings. He walked two and struck out seven.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 5th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed two earned runs on two hits and two walks while striking out 11 over 8 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Padres on Saturday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Sun, Aug 22nd
Luis Castillo (7-14) took the loss Monday against the Cardinals, allowing three runs on five hits across six innings. He walked two and struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Mon, Aug 30th
Notes 
 Nola bounced back from his disappointing 2019 campaign, and looked much closer to the 2018 breakout version of himself last year. His set a career mark in strikeout rate (33.2%, which ranked in the top nine percent in the league) and swinging strike rate (13.4%), and brought his walk rate down to just eight percent. Nola also got batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a rate of 38.1%, far better than he had ever done in his career, and they made contact less than ever, at a rate of only 59.1%. The reason for the change was Nola relying far less on his fastball and more on his changeup, which kept hitters off balance and made both pitches more effective. Nola doesn't throw particularly hard, so his success relies much more on command and finding the right pitch mix, both of which he excelled at in 2020. If he can keep that going in 2021, and it's a good bet he will, he should be considered a fantasy ace.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Castillo turned in another excellent season last year, cutting his walk rate and striking out batters at a higher rate than he ever had in his career. His WHIP increased to a career-worst 1.23, but that was largely due to bad luck, as batters hit .232 against him despite an expected batting average of just .212. Nevertheless, Castillo kept runs off the board, largely because he was able to avoid home runs (just five in 70 innings) and limit free passes. Castillo is capable of fronting a fantasy pitching staff, though he's more of a low-end ace, and there are plenty of trade rumors following him around. But, given his reliable production and increased strikeout rate the past two seasons, he can be drafted with confidence.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros