Who Should I Draft?

Clayton Kershaw or Jose Berrios (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Clayton Kershaw
SP - LAD
Clayton Kershaw
Jose Berrios
SP - MIN
Jose Berrios
Expert
Recommendation
59%
Recommended by
33 of 56 experts
41%
Recommended by
23 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 23# 24
Best Rank# 8# 6
Worst Rank# 51# 47
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 54# 73
Best Rank# 49# 66
Worst Rank# 72# 79
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts157192
Wins1213
Saves00
ERA2.943.90
WHIP1.051.23
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 18# 22
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 20# 24
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 22# 33
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 22# 26
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 26# 45
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 24# 26
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 12# 35
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 15# 31
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 21# 27
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 17# 25
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 12# 31
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 13# 32
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 21# 27
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 28# 47
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 12# 27
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 22# 42
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 24# 25
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 28# 41
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 15# 27
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 16# 31
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 33# 35
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 8# 30
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 14# 20
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 25# 28
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 11# 38
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 26# 28
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 26# 28
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 27# 30
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 16# 21
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 12# 27
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 22# 25
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 14# 18
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 8# 26
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 8# 6
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 24# 20
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 24# 23
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 25# 18
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 26# 24
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 26# 22
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 27# 23
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 28# 21
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 28# 18
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 28# 23
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 29# 14
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 29# 15
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 32# 23
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 33# 16
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 33# 14
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 34# 24
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 35# 17
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 38# 15
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 39# 12
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 49# 30
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 49# 12
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 49# 18
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 51# 26
   
  Clayton Kershaw
SP - LAD
Clayton Kershaw
Jose Berrios
SP - MIN
Jose Berrios
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2632
   
Games Started2632
   
Innings Pitched161.2192.0
   
Wins912
   
Losses511
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed139159
   
Earned Runs4982
   
Home Runs Allowed1725
   
Strikeouts155202
   
Walks2961
   
ERA2.733.84
   
WHIP1.041.14
   
  Clayton Kershaw
SP - LAD
Clayton Kershaw
Jose Berrios
SP - MIN
Jose Berrios
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2532
   
Games Started2532
   
Innings Pitched154.9189.5
   
Wins1213
   
Losses610
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed133171
   
Earned Runs5182
   
Home Runs Allowed1724
   
Strikeouts157192
   
Walks3162
   
ERA2.943.90
   
WHIP1.051.23
   
  Clayton Kershaw
SP - LAD
Clayton Kershaw
Jose Berrios
SP - MIN
Jose Berrios
News 
 Clayton Kershaw received a no-decision on Monday versus Arizona, allowing four runs on seven hits in six innings while walking one and striking out two.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Jun 25th
Jose Berrios was removed from Saturday's start versus the Royals in the eighth inning due to a blister on his right ring finger.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Jun 22nd
 Clayton Kershaw improved to 7-1 on Tuesday versus the Giants, firing seven scoreless innings while striking out six and walking two.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Jun 19th
Minnesota Twins right-hander Jose Berrios pitched well in a 2-0 loss to the Red Sox on Monday. Berrios allowed one run in eight innings while striking out 10.
Matthew Terelle
Tue, Jun 18th
 Clayton Kershaw earned the win on Thursday versus the Cubs, striking out eight while allowing three runs over six innings.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Jun 14th
Minnesota Twins right-hander Jose Berrios pitched well in a 9-6 loss to the Mariners on Wednesday. Berrios allowed just one run in 6 2/3 innings while striking out six and walking two.
Matthew Terelle
Thu, Jun 13th
 Clayton Kershaw fell to 5-1 on Friday in San Francisco, spinning seven innings of two-run ball while striking out four.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Jun 8th
Minnesota Twins right-hander Jose Berrios pitched well in a 5-4 win over Cleveland on Thursday. Berrios allowed two runs (one earned) in six innings while striking out six.
Matthew Terelle
Thu, Jun 6th
 Clayton Kershaw received a no-decision on Saturday versus Philadelphia, firing seven innings of one-run ball while striking out six.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 2nd
Minnesota Twins right-hander Jose Berrios pitched well in a 5-3 win over the Rays on Friday. Berrios allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings while striking out eight.
Matthew Terelle
Sat, Jun 1st
Notes 
 For the first time in a decade, there is quite a bit of risk with drafting Kershaw. He hasn't pitched 180 innings since 2015 and saw his strikeout rate plummet from 10.4 to 8.6 per nine innings. You can bank on top-notch ratios, but because of the innings a low strikeout totals and a potential shoulder injury, Kershaw has fallen into the third-tier of fantasy pitchers this year.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Berrios' 2018 season was pretty similar to 2017. He made some strides in strikeout rate and WHIP, but it didn't help his ERA much thanks to a spike in home runs allowed. Berrios is a good but not great strikeout pitcher and his walk rate is just ok, so he'll need to make further improvements to live up to the hype he had as a prospect. That could certainly happen in his age-24 season, but it isn't guaranteed.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 The best pitcher of the last decade, Kershaw has seen his innings totals drop to 175 or fewer over each of the last three seasons. He's remained highly effective in those innings, but last year showed some more serious concerns, namely declining velocity and strikeouts. Kershaw remains in a highly-favorable pitching environment in Los Angeles, and given his mastery of the art of pitching, it would not be surprising to see him grit out another season with a sub-3.00 ERA. The question is how many innings he'll be able to throw and whether he can get his strikeout rate back over a batter per inning. Given that he is already experiencing arm soreness in Spring Training, fantasy owners need to proceed cautiously.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
There is a chance Berrios has another level of potential yet to be seen, but more likely, he has settled in as a third tier pitcher that will produce above average ratios with about 200 strikeouts. That is perfectly sufficient for an 8th round pick. He may not have finished the season strong on paper, but his underlying metrics showed no reason for lingering concern.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Last year, drafters accepted the dice roll of taking 180 otherworldly innings from Kershaw. The gambit fell short not only because of his 161.1 frames--he hasn't topped 175 since 2015--but his performance when healthy. A 2.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP are still stellar, and he maintained excellent command by issuing 29 walks over 26 starts. Yet his 23.9 K% represents the lowest rate of any starter inside the ECR's top 15. He may not be better than Trevor Bauer, Blake Snell, Carlos Carrasco, or Luis Severino on a per-inning basis, so why take the veteran southpaw knowing back woes (and the Dodgers' careful rotation management) will shield him well short of 200 frames? Spring setbacks should make drafters even more cautious about taking him as a top-15 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
His ERA only improved slightly from 3.89 to 3.84, but Berrios made major strides last season. His swinging-strike rate lunged from 9.4 to 11.2%, leading to 202 punchouts in a career-high 192.1 frames. Although his walk rate (2.85 BB/9) also improved just slightly, he upped his first-pitch strike % significantly from 59.1 to 64.5. Berrios could take a major leap in his age-25 season, but the ERA estimators (3.90 FP, 4.29 SIERA) and career 5.31 road ERA urge some caution.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros