Who Should I Draft?

Clayton Kershaw or Luis Severino (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Clayton Kershaw
SP - LAD
Clayton Kershaw
Luis Severino
SP - NYY
Luis Severino
Expert
Recommendation
63%
Recommended by
37 of 59 experts
37%
Recommended by
22 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 23# 26
Best Rank# 8# 7
Worst Rank# 51# 65
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 54# 68
Best Rank# 49# 55
Worst Rank# 72# 121
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts157178
Wins1213
Saves00
ERA2.943.32
WHIP1.051.13
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 18# 35
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 20# 27
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 29# 45
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 27# 33
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 38# 39
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 22# 43
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 26# 34
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 24# 31
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 12# 21
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 21# 24
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 17# 31
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 49# 65
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 12# 15
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 13# 20
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 21# 33
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 28# 31
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 12# 18
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 22# 24
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 32# 41
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 33# 34
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 25# 50
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 8# 18
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 16# 24
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 33# 34
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 8# 11
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 28# 43
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 11# 19
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 26# 37
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 29# 33
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 26# 27
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 16# 28
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 24# 26
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 8# 10
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 22# 56
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 26# 29
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 14# 20
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 8# 13
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 12# 7
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 14# 12
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 15# 13
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 19# 12
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 21# 18
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 22# 16
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 24# 19
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 24# 13
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 25# 19
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 26# 24
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 27# 11
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 28# 10
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 28# 19
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 28# 12
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 30# 24
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 33# 19
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 34# 23
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 35# 28
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 39# 25
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 49# 40
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 49# 27
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 51# 22
   
  Clayton Kershaw
SP - LAD
Clayton Kershaw
Luis Severino
SP - NYY
Luis Severino
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played2632
   
Games Started2632
   
Innings Pitched161.2191.2
   
Wins919
   
Losses58
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed139173
   
Earned Runs4972
   
Home Runs Allowed1719
   
Strikeouts155220
   
Walks2946
   
ERA2.733.39
   
WHIP1.041.14
   
  Clayton Kershaw
SP - LAD
Clayton Kershaw
Luis Severino
SP - NYY
Luis Severino
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2527
   
Games Started2526
   
Innings Pitched154.9155.9
   
Wins1213
   
Losses66
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed133136
   
Earned Runs5158
   
Home Runs Allowed1719
   
Strikeouts157178
   
Walks3140
   
ERA2.943.32
   
WHIP1.051.13
   
  Clayton Kershaw
SP - LAD
Clayton Kershaw
Luis Severino
SP - NYY
Luis Severino
News 
 Clayton Kershaw picked up the win in his final start of the regular season on Thursday versus San Diego, tossing six scoreless innings while striking out seven.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Sep 27th
Luis Severino allowed two runs on a hit and four walks while striking out four over three innings, taking the loss against the Rangers on Saturday.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 29th
 Clayton Kershaw improved to 15-5 on Friday versus Colorado, allowing four runs on eight hits over six innings pitched.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Sep 21st
Luis Severino pitched four scoreless innings, struck out two and allowed only two hits as the Yankees defeated the Angels 8-0.
Brandon Plutner
Tue, Sep 17th
 Clayton Kershaw improved to 14-5 on Friday against the Mets, tossing 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball while striking out five.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Sep 14th
Luis Severino (shoulder) is scheduled to make his 2019 debut on Tuesday against the Angels.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Sep 12th
 Clayton Kershaw took the loss on Friday against the Giants, allowing three runs on seven hits over four innings pitched.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Sep 7th
Luis Severino (lat) will throw 45-50 pitches over about three innings in his rehab appearance with Double-A Trenton on Friday, Greg Johnson of The Trentonian reports.
John Aubin
Fri, Sep 6th
 Clayton Kershaw struggled on Saturday versus the Diamondbacks, giving up five runs on five hits over five innings pitched.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Aug 31st
Luis Severino (lat) gave up two runs on three hits while striking out two over one inning in his rehab start Sunday for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
John Aubin
Mon, Sep 2nd
Notes 
 For the first time in a decade, there is quite a bit of risk with drafting Kershaw. He hasn't pitched 180 innings since 2015 and saw his strikeout rate plummet from 10.4 to 8.6 per nine innings. You can bank on top-notch ratios, but because of the innings a low strikeout totals and a potential shoulder injury, Kershaw has fallen into the third-tier of fantasy pitchers this year.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
A Cy Young Award contender though June, Severino imploded with a 5.20 ERA over the final three months. That inconsistency is perilous for a staff headliner, but he still finished 2018 with a 3.39 ERA, 2.95 FIP, and 220 strikeouts. Despite his start-by-start inconsistency, he has delivered on a macro level in consecutive seasons. However, he will miss at least all of April with a shoulder injury, Previously a viable top-10 candidate, he's now too risky to draft as a top-25 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 The best pitcher of the last decade, Kershaw has seen his innings totals drop to 175 or fewer over each of the last three seasons. He's remained highly effective in those innings, but last year showed some more serious concerns, namely declining velocity and strikeouts. Kershaw remains in a highly-favorable pitching environment in Los Angeles, and given his mastery of the art of pitching, it would not be surprising to see him grit out another season with a sub-3.00 ERA. The question is how many innings he'll be able to throw and whether he can get his strikeout rate back over a batter per inning. Given that he is already experiencing arm soreness in Spring Training, fantasy owners need to proceed cautiously.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
At first glance, Severino's 2018 numbers look just about as good as his excellent 2017 season, but the real story is that he was completely dominant in the first half and completely awful in the second half. That kind of inconsistency is a red flag, as is the rotator cuff inflammation that could cause him to miss the first month of the season or more. The sky is the limit for Severino in terms of long-term upside, but he's shaping up as a boom-or-bust pick for 2019.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Last year, drafters accepted the dice roll of taking 180 otherworldly innings from Kershaw. The gambit fell short not only because of his 161.1 frames--he hasn't topped 175 since 2015--but his performance when healthy. A 2.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP are still stellar, and he maintained excellent command by issuing 29 walks over 26 starts. Yet his 23.9 K% represents the lowest rate of any starter inside the ECR's top 15. He may not be better than Trevor Bauer, Blake Snell, Carlos Carrasco, or Luis Severino on a per-inning basis, so why take the veteran southpaw knowing back woes (and the Dodgers' careful rotation management) will shield him well short of 200 frames? Spring setbacks should make drafters even more cautious about taking him as a top-15 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Over the past two seasons, only Scherzer, Sale, Verlander, deGrom and Kluber have a better ERA and more strikeouts than Severino, who is quickly becoming a true durable ace. He doesn't belong in that first tier, but may already lead the next group.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros