Who Should I Draft?
Pete Alonso or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2021)
Experts' Pick | ||
| Pete Alonso 1B,DH - NYM  | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B,3B,DH - TOR  | |
Expert |
60% Recommended by 30 of 50 experts |
40% Recommended by 20 of 50 experts |
| Rankings | ||
| ECR | # 32 | # 34 |
| Best Rank | # 21 | # 12 |
| Worst Rank | # 55 | # 65 |
| ADP | ||
| Composite | # 46 | # 51 |
| Best Rank | # 43 | # 40 |
| Worst Rank | # 53 | # 54 |
| Projections | ||
| Runs | 90 | 84 |
| Home Runs | 42 | 27 |
| RBI | 105 | 95 |
| Stolen Bases | 2 | 3 |
| Batting Average | .250 | .288 |
| Misc | ||
| Injury Alert | - | - |
| Expert Ranks | ||
| Andy Behrens Yahoo! Sports | # 28 | # 40 |
| Scott Pianowski Yahoo! Sports | # 35 | # 38 |
| Steve Gardner USA Today | # 33 | # 34 |
| Site Projections RotoChamp | # 35 | # 54 |
| Grey Albright Razzball | # 23 | # 27 |
| Muntradamus Beast Dome | # 21 | # 65 |
| KJ Fantasy Team Advice | # 31 | # 32 |
| Luke Gloeckner Mr. Cheatsheet | # 32 | # 35 |
| Dave McKay The Fantasy Sports Brain | # 31 | # 50 |
| Tim McCullough Baseball Prospectus | # 35 | # 37 |
| Wayne Bretsky BretskyBall | # 38 | # 41 |
| Jake Ciely The Athletic | # 26 | # 27 |
| Chris Meaney FTN | # 35 | # 49 |
| Andy Singleton Expand The Boxscore | # 27 | # 33 |
| Heath Capps Fake Teams | # 34 | # 41 |
| Mario Mergola Sporfolio | # 36 | # 49 |
| Nick Pollack Pitcher List | # 34 | # 41 |
| Nick Mariano RotoBaller | # 34 | # 44 |
| Pierre Camus RotoBaller | # 30 | # 31 |
| Andrew Seifter FantasyPros | # 35 | # 38 |
| Max Freeze Freeze Stats | # 31 | # 37 |
| Dennis Sosic Fantasy Six Pack | # 36 | # 44 |
| Michael Petropoulos BRoto Fantasy | # 26 | # 29 |
| Jacob W. Dunne New Life Fantasy | # 34 | # 37 |
| Lucas Spence Pitcher List | # 27 | # 41 |
| Jordan Eisen Field of Vision Sports | # 41 | # 42 |
| Nate Miller FantasyPros | # 40 | # 59 |
| Brad Camara FantasyPros | # 22 | # 28 |
| Staff Rankings Roto Ranks | # 33 | # 35 |
| Corbin Young FantasyData | # 34 | # 35 |
| Ryan Amore Pitcher List | # 28 | # 18 |
| Donkey Teeth Razzball | # 32 | # 12 |
| Adam Ronis Fantasy Alarm | # 32 | # 23 |
| Andrew Gould FantasyPros | # 34 | # 32 |
| Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports | # 34 | # 18 |
| Jeff Boggis Fantasy Football Empire | # 34 | # 33 |
| Chris Clegg Fantrax | # 34 | # 32 |
| Mick Ciallela Fantrax | # 34 | # 31 |
| Greg Smith The Fake Baseball | # 34 | # 23 |
| Brendan Tuma FantasyPros | # 35 | # 25 |
| Mike Maher FantasyPros | # 35 | # 33 |
| Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack | # 35 | # 29 |
| Ariel Cohen FanGraphs | # 35 | # 32 |
| Dan Harris FantasyPros | # 37 | # 33 |
| Nicklaus Gaut RotoBaller | # 39 | # 37 |
| Michael Waterloo FantasyPros | # 39 | # 20 |
| Rudy Gamble Razzball | # 39 | # 23 |
| Joe Pisapia FantasyPros | # 40 | # 37 |
| Todd D Clark The Fantasy Fix | # 41 | # 31 |
| Carmen Maiorano FantasyPros | # 55 | # 42 |
| Pete Alonso 1B,DH - NYM | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B,3B,DH - TOR | |
| 2020 Stats | ||
| At Bats | 208 | 221 |
| Runs | 31 | 34 |
| Hits | 48 | 58 |
| Singles | 26 | 34 |
| Doubles | 6 | 13 |
| Triples | 0 | 2 |
| Home Runs | 16 | 9 |
| RBI | 35 | 33 |
| Stolen Bases | 1 | 2 |
| Caught Stealing | 0 | 0 |
| Walks | 24 | 20 |
| Strikeouts | 61 | 38 |
| Batting Average | .231 | .262 |
| On Base Pct | .326 | .329 |
| Slugging Pct | .490 | .462 |
| On-base Plus Slugging | .817 | .791 |
| Pete Alonso 1B,DH - NYM | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B,3B,DH - TOR | |
| 2021 Projections | ||
| At Bats | 550 | 554 |
| Runs | 90 | 84 |
| Hits | 136 | 158 |
| Singles | 68 | 95 |
| Doubles | 25 | 32 |
| Triples | 1 | 3 |
| Home Runs | 42 | 27 |
| RBI | 105 | 95 |
| Stolen Bases | 2 | 3 |
| Caught Stealing | 1 | 1 |
| Walks | 67 | 56 |
| Strikeouts | 166 | 101 |
| Batting Average | .250 | .288 |
| On Base Pct | .331 | .354 |
| Slugging Pct | .526 | .502 |
| On-base Plus Slugging | .857 | .856 |
| Pete Alonso 1B,DH - NYM | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B,3B,DH - TOR | |
| News | ||
| Pete Alonso went 1-4 with two RBIs, one run scored, and one walk. Lucas Babits-Feinerman Thu, Apr 22nd | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2-for-3 with one RBI, a run scored, and two walks in a 6-3 win over the Red Sox on Wednesday. John Aubin Thu, Apr 22nd | |
| Pete Alonso went 2-7 across both games of the doubleheader with a single, home run, run scored, two RBIs, and five strikeouts. Lucas Babits-Feinerman Sun, Apr 18th | Vladimir Guerrero went 2-for-3 with a solo home run and a second run scored in the first game of Saturday's doubleheader against the Royals. John Aubin Sun, Apr 18th | |
| Pete Alonso went 0-3 with one strikeout and one RBI. Lucas Babits-Feinerman Thu, Apr 15th | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-5 with a double and a home run in Thursday's 7-5 loss in Kansas City. Andy Zimmerman Fri, Apr 16th | |
| Pete Alonso had six total bases with one walk, one strikeout, two RBIs, and scored two runs. He's OPSing 1.375 through the first week of the season. Lucas Babits-Feinerman Wed, Apr 7th | Vladimir Guerrero went 2-for-4 with two walks, a stolen base, three RBI and a run scored Saturday in a victory over the Angels by a 15-1 score. John Aubin Sun, Apr 11th | |
| Vladimir Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run and three RBI in an extra-inning loss to the Angels on Thursday by a 7-5 score. John Aubin Fri, Apr 9th | ||
| Notes | ||
| Alonso didn't quite follow up his incredible 2019 season last year, but he certainly wasn't terrible. The vast majority of his underlying statcast data and metrics looked similar, and he mostly just didn't make quite as consistently hard contact as he did the previous year. Alonso is never going to help you in batting average, but you should expect 40 home runs and 100 RBI this year and for the foreseeable future. With such a high floor, Alonso makes a more than adequate starting first baseman in mixed leagues. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | |
| As good a bet as anyone to lead the majors in homeruns, Alonso is a very, very solid 1B option. May not fit the build for every team, but he is someone you build around in your draft. Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy | Vlad's propensity to smack the ball into the ground is concerning, but he lost a ton of weight, is only 22 years old, and no one would be surprised if he took the superstar leap this season. He is a very solid pick at ADP with upside. Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy | |
| At the end of the 2020 season Guerrero Jr. admitted to being out of shape for the start of summer camp, though he insists that he was ready to go for the original spring training. Quarantine life got the best of many of us, and young Vladito unfortunately wasn't an exception. By all reports, his weight loss effort has skyrocketed this offseason. It appears as if the message has been received. Guerrero is aiming to return to the hot corner in 2021. Improving his fitness is step one towards him having a good season. Step two will either be hitting less ground balls or doing more damage on his non-grounders. I'm comfortable taking an aggressive stance here and being a year early on Guerrero should it come to that. Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros | ||
