Doug Baldwin exploded onto the NFL scene at the end of last year and finished with 78 receptions for 1,069 yards and 14 receiving touchdowns. He turns 28-years old this year, but I do not think he will have as many touchdowns with Lockett ready to emerge in this offense.
I really thought I'd have Baldwin higher than this, but as I've said in previous blurbs, receivers are deep this year. I understand how risky Baldwin looks on paper. He had a huge second half of the season last year, but has never shown such a high ceiling in the past. The trouble is, he's never been given the opportunities in the past. Prior to 2015, Baldwin had just 15 games with seven or more targets in 62 games played. Whereas last season, he had eight more of those games, with six of those coming in the last eight games of the season. When Baldwin does see seven or more targets, he's averaging six receptions for 85 yards and .83 touchdowns per game; throw those into a full 16 games of seven or more targets and you have a Top-10 receiver. The question is, will he get those seven targets? I believe the answer is yes. The Seahawks know that he can get the job done now. They have Tyler Lockett to open Baldwin up over the middle. There's no Marshawn Lynch to feed and Wilson has proven that he's just too good to be bottled up by handing the ball off most of the time.
Lets hurry and get this out of the way: there is no way he maintains that touchdown rate. With that being said, he kicked it up about five levels towards the end of the season, outscoring even Antonio Brown by 19 points the final seven weeks. He was second in football all season in yards per target, and all of these together makes spending a 6th round pick on Baldwin seem like a bargain.