Alvin Kamara Week 10 Outlook - 49ers at Saints

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Nov 12th 2020, 8:21am EST

We knew it was a tough matchup last week against the Bucs, but Kamara came out with the RB8 performance. He's finished as a top-13 running back every single game this year, so despite tough matchups, he's getting it done. That's important because he has a brutal stretch coming up, playing against the 49ers (3rd-fewest points allowed to RBs), Falcons (10th-fewest), Broncos (8th-fewest), Falcons again, and Eagles (6th-fewest). There are just six teams in the NFL who've allowed five or less total touchdowns to running backs, and the 49ers are one of them. This is a battle of efficiency versus the defense who stops efficiency. Kamara ranks No. 1 in weighted opportunity while the 49ers rank No. 2 in points allowed per opportunity. The 49ers haven't allowed a running back more than 88 yards on the ground this year (just one over 63 yards) and have allowed just three rushing touchdowns. And keep in mind there have been five running backs who've totaled at least 15 carries. They have allowed 5.77 yards per target to running backs, which is essentially the league average, so that's where Kamara is likely to get his production. He has seen at least six targets in 7-of-8 games, including eight-plus targets in six of them. Oddly enough, Kamara hasn't topped 83 rushing yards all season, so this matchup shouldn't be one we run too far from. His upside might be a bit capped but he's still an RB1 play every single week. Murray on the other hand, this matchup doesn't match his skill-set at all as the short-yardage, partial goal-line back. Unless he falls into the end zone, he's not going to be someone who'll pay off in lineups, making him a touchdown-dependent RB4.