Bijan Robinson Week 4 Outlook - Falcons at Jaguars

By Derek Brown (FantasyPros), Fri, Sep 29th 2023, 9:05pm EDT

While Allgeier still has a firm grasp on red zone work, Robinson has asserted himself as the team's bellcow with each passing week. Robinson played 63% of the snaps in Week 1. That figure stood at 81% in Week 3. Robinson has averaged 17.7 touches and 105 total yards. Robinson's pass game usage has been juicy. He ranks second in route run per team dropback rate, first in Target share (19.3%!), and fifth in YPRR. I'm not trying to bury the lede, but he's also a special rushing talent, ranking sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. The Jaguars' run defense has been legit, but they have some exploitable weaknesses if Arthur Smith is willing to change things up this week. Jacksonville has held rushers to the third-lowest explosive run rate while they also have the third-highest stuff rate. Here's where things get interesting, though. The Jaguars have yielded the lowest yards per carry to zone runs, but they have permitted the fourth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.0). Robinson has only been used on gap runs on 28% of his attempts this season, but he has the fourth-highest yards per carry (6.9 nice!) on gap scheme runs. If Smith is willing to alter the run game plan, Robinson could have a huge day. The Jaguars will also allow production through the air for Robinson. They have given up the 12th-most receiving yards and seventh-most receptions to running backs. Week 4 Positional Value: Matchup proof RB1