Caleb Williams

The projected No. 1 overall pick, USC's Caleb Williams looks like the next coming of Patrick Mahomes. The off-script playmaking ability is so apparent with Williams, and that makes him deadly when paired with his elite production from a clean pocket. This past season, Williams posted PFF's highest grade without pressure. He also added 44 rushing yards per game, further highlighting his dual-threat skillset. At times in his final year at USC, Williams would often try to play too much hero ball. Case in point, Williams held the ball a ton (highest in the draft class) in 2023. That was something Justin Fields also struggled with at the NFL level.

Williams has the gunslinger mentality cranked up to 11 at all times. While I won't fault him for that because I would rather the aggression than more passiveness when playing, it can get him into trouble at times. Williams will force throws into strapped coverage where he should have taken what the defense gave him with an easy underneath route or check down. This could come back to bite him in the pros if he doesn't reel it in at times. His highwire act played up better in 2022 than in 2023, when his supporting cast wasn't as adept at getting open. At times, when you watch his 2023 tape, it's evident that every receiving option is covered up quickly, and Williams was forced into a backyard scramble ball. In 2023, on some reps, he looked frantic as he was pressing to play hero ball, whereas in 2022, on similar reps, he was a seasoned explorer sprinting in the dark with a playmaking compass pointing him toward home. He needs to play with more controlled aggression, like in 2022, and less, like in 2023. Williams has easy velocity at all levels of the field, which allows him to fit in strikes into some precariously tight windows. His flick of the wrist plus velo helps him out when he's on the run, as it's nothing for him to toss it 40 yards downfield while on the move and make it look easy. Williams has a quick release and can alter arm angles at the drop of a hat. He's a strong processor on the field, but he can rush through progressions at times. He'll flip from his 1st to his second read or his second to his third without allowing the play to flesh itself out. Williams developed some bad habits in 2023 as he would bail some clean/workable pockets at the first sign of pressure instead of stepping up in a workable pocket to avoid the rush. He needs to get back to the 2022 version of himself, where he balanced his Superman tendencies with a tad more Clark Kent. Williams will offer some rushing upside in the NFL; although he's probably unlikely to be a consistent 500-yard rusher like in college, he could kick in 300-400 in some seasons. Williams has a decent change of direction ability, but his start/stop isn't lightning fast, as he's equipped with more build-up speed. He will probably run a 4.5 40-yard dash, so I don't want to shade his wheels too much. His escapability in the pocket would lead many to believe that, as a rusher, he would be twitchier. He can chew up yards when it's called for but don't look for him to be a heavy-designed rush attempt quarterback in the NFL.

The odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams figures to be a Day 1 starter for whichever team selects him. After transferring from Oklahoma to USC in 2022, Williams won the Heisman Trophy in his first season with the Trojans, throwing for 42 touchdowns and running for 10 more. Williams was slightly less spectacular in 2023 but still had a fine season for a defensively weak USC squad that asked its quarterback to carry the team all year. Williams has abundant arm talent and mobility. He's a creative quarterback who excels at making plays out of structure. Williams' supporting cast at USC wasn't great, so he probably won't be overwhelmed if he steps into an NFL offense that isn't brimming with talent. There's always a steep learning curve for rookie quarterbacks, but C.J. Stroud just reminded us that a high-quality rookie QB can be fantasy-viable right away.